NFL offseason power rankings: No. 7 Cleveland Browns need more from Deshaun Watson

Myles Garrett has double-digit sacks in six straight seasons. (Yahoo Sports/Henry Russell)

Positive vibes about Deshaun Watson, on or off the field, have been rare for the Cleveland Browns since they traded for the controversial quarterback. But for one fantastic half against the Baltimore Ravens last season, Watson looked like the player the Browns thought they were getting.

The Browns trailed 24-9 at the Ravens. Watson struggled in the first half. The Ravens were a tremendous opponent; they ended up being the No. 1 seed in the AFC. And Watson willed Cleveland to a win. In the second half he completed 14 of 14 passes for 134 yards and a touchdown. The Browns scored on five of their six second-half possessions and won 33-31.

The good vibes from that game didn’t last long and are long forgotten by now. Three days after, the Browns announced Watson’s season was done due to a displaced fracture to the glenoid in his right shoulder. He had season-ending surgery. But that half of football provided hope for Cleveland. The criticism of the Browns for acquiring Watson and his off-field issues that centered on sexual assault and misconduct allegations from multiple women, then signing him to a $230 million fully guaranteed contract extension, will never subside. Watson can still change the football side of his narrative, for whatever it would be worth.

When the Browns traded for Watson, they tossed aside moral dilemmas because they were desperate to add a quarterback who was one of the NFL’s best when he was with the Houston Texans. Cleveland invited a ton of criticism and hasn’t even gotten the benefit of having a good quarterback. Watson has been decidedly below average with the Browns. It had been a long time since Watson looked like the quarterback he was at Clemson and Houston. But that second half at Baltimore was finally it.

The Browns ended up with a feel-good story, which has been rare for them since trading for Watson. Late in the season they signed Joe Flacco, who had been out of a job since the 2022 season ended, and Flacco played well as Cleveland won four of his five starts. The Browns made the playoffs. Flacco won NFL Comeback Player of the Year.

It was a fun ride, but it was probably less about Flacco and more about how stacked the Browns are around the quarterback position. They just needed competence at quarterback to win 11 games. Going forward, if the Browns are going to have a special season it’s not going to be with a retread quarterback finding magic for a few weeks after his career looked like it might be over. It’ll be because Watson is that player who we saw in the second half comeback against the Ravens.

If Watson simply plays to the level of Flacco last season, the Browns will be good. They went 11-6 despite 12 starts from Flacco, Dorian Thompson-Robinson, P.J. Walker and Jeff Driskel. When the Browns had a somewhat capable starter (Watson or Flacco), they went 9-2. That’s due to an offensive line that is considered to be top five in the NFL, skill-position talent like Amari Cooper and David Njoku and a spectacular defense that includes NFL Defensive Player of the year Myles Garrett. Cleveland led the NFL in yards allowed and was exceptional against the pass last season, allowing a 74.7 passer rating that ranked second in the NFL. The Browns practically turned all quarterbacks into rookie year Bryce Young.

Cleveland made the postseason with a 38-year-old Flacco, who was unsigned until November and had to catch a commercial flight to join the Browns. A season before the Jets demoted Flacco to third string despite having the worst quarterback situation in the NFL. Flacco hadn’t been a viable QB in at least four years, and arguably five, six or more. His revival was a cool story but realistically it had more to do with a strong Browns foundation rather than Flacco finding some fountain of youth. If Watson plays just as well as 2023 Flacco the Browns can make the playoffs again. If Watson is much better than Flacco, the Browns could be one of the best teams in football. They were 5-1 in Watson’s starts last season, after all.

Cleveland has waited a long time to be a Super Bowl contender. There’s no guarantee Watson can get the Browns there. But everything else is set up. Now it’s on the quarterback to take them to the next level.

Offseason grade

The Browns had a dull offseason. The big move was trading with the Broncos for receiver Jerry Jeudy, who wore out his welcome in Denver. Cleveland gave up just a fifth- and sixth-round draft pick for Jeudy. Jeudy never lived up to first-round pick expectations with the Broncos but he’s a solid receiver who should fit in fine without the expectation of being a star. That trade is one reason the Browns’ draft was light (also, the Browns finished sending picks to Houston as the last part of the costly Deshaun Watson trade). Cleveland’s consensus draft grade from experts was 31st in the NFL, which will happen when you have no first-round pick and only two picks in the top 155. They hope second-round pick Michael Hall contributes at defensive tackle and third-round pick Zak Zinter helps with offensive line depth. The big move in free agency was retaining pass rusher Za’Darius Smith on a two-year, $21 million deal. As for additions, there weren’t many though linebacker Jordan Hicks and defensive tackle Quinton Jefferson should help on defense and quarterback Jameis Winston provides some Watson insurance. There weren’t many big losses in free agency. The draft class being so thin brings the grade down some, but it was mostly a ho-hum offseason in Cleveland.

Grade: C-

Quarterback report

Skepticism that Deshaun Watson will ever be an above-average quarterback again is fair. In 12 Browns games he has 2,217 yards, 14 touchdowns and nine interceptions for an 81.7 passer rating. That’s not what Cleveland paid for. Watson has excuses, though he brought plenty of it upon himself and nobody will be sympathetic anyway. His 2022 was mostly lost due to an 11-game suspension before he could join his new teammates and coaches. It was no surprise that he wasn’t great in the final six games. Last season he dealt with multiple injuries including the shoulder injury that ended his season.

There still is question about Watson’s shoulder after that surgery (though his recovery seems to be going well), but time has run out for more excuses. This seems like a make-or-break season for Watson, though his guaranteed contract might say otherwise. If the Browns were to cut Watson next offseason they’d take on a dead cap hit of almost $137 million. That’s unimaginable. But the Browns might also have little choice but to start considering other options if Watson is below average again. If Watson doesn’t look better, the Browns are in trouble in many ways.

BetMGM odds breakdown

There’s not a lot of optimism for the Browns this season. They’re 40-to-1 to win the Super Bowl at BetMGM, which is 16th among NFL teams. They’re behind the Bears, who haven’t won a playoff game since the 2010 season. The Browns won 11 games last season but their win total is 8.5. Does that mean the market believes going from Joe Flacco to Deshaun Watson will make the Browns 2.5 games worse? Cleveland is +500 to win the AFC North, and while the division is tough that seems pretty long for a team that made the playoffs last season while ranking 31st in passer rating.

The market likes Myles Garrett, last season’s NFL Defensive Player of the Year who is tied for Micah Parsons as the favorite to win DPOY this season at +650 odds.

Yahoo’s fantasy take

From Yahoo’s Scott Pianowski: “David Njoku finally cashed in on his immense potential last year, charting as the TE5. But it’s worrisome that the spike mostly happened when journeyman Joe Flacco grabbed the starting job late in the year. Njoku has yet to show any significant chemistry with starter Deshaun Watson, and it’s been four years since Watson showed superstar ability — injuries and off-field problems, not to mention an extended suspension layoff, seem to have sapped Watson’s confidence and upside.

“As uncoverable as Njoku appears to be on a regular basis, I can’t trust Watson to pay this off. Sometimes it’s a case of loving the real-life player but being nervous of the fantasy prospects; unless the draft room gives me a modest Njoku discount, he’ll be a reluctant fade for me during the teeth of draft season.”

Stat to remember

The Browns wanted to run the ball last season. They just weren’t good at it. Cleveland was fourth in the NFL in rushing attempts and 26th in yards per run. Nick Chubb‘s horrible knee injury in Week 2 left Cleveland scrambling. Jerome Ford did a reasonable job replacing Chubb, but Cleveland’s run game wasn’t the same without Chubb.

The Browns were surprisingly quiet in the running back market this offseason. That seems to be a sign that they expect Chubb back and at his normal level, though that’s a lot to ask after such a bad injury. A viral video of Chubb squatting close to 600 pounds provided some excitement that he can be back soon this season, but he’ll still have a long way to go. Ford (and perhaps D’Onta Foreman) will hold down the job until Chubb gets back, and maybe beyond that if Chubb isn’t productive. Cleveland could end up being more of a passing team, with receivers Amari Cooper, Jerry Jeudy, Elijah Moore and tight end David Njoku forming a strong pass-catching core. That would put more pressure on Deshaun Watson’s shoulders, and nobody knows if he can handle that.

Burning question

Can Jim Schwartz’s defense repeat its 2023 success?

History says it’s less likely for a defense to repeat success year-to-year than an offense. It’s possible that the Browns take a step back on defense. But it was a group that was arguably the best in the NFL last season. Jim Schwartz took over as coordinator and from Week 1, when Cleveland held the Cincinnati Bengals to 142 yards and three points, it looked like a perfect match of scheme and personnel. It helps to have Myles Garrett, who won last season’s NFL Defensive Player of the Year. The Browns had some changes at linebacker but most of the defense that led the NFL in yards allowed last season returns. The last time we saw the Browns, C.J. Stroud and the Texans carved them up in a wild-card playoff loss. That’s a little concerning, but it seemed like a one-off performance from a great defense. And Schwartz promises a more expanded playbook in the second year of him running Cleveland’s defense.

“We can’t get complacent,” Schwartz said, according to the Browns’ site. “We can’t think that last year is going to mean anything. Right now, last year means nothing. Everybody’s right down to the bottom of the hill again, and you got to climb it again.”

Best-case scenario

Deshaun Watson won’t turn 29 years old until Sept. 14. It has been a few seasons since we’ve seen Watson be among the best quarterbacks in football, but he was at that level and should still be in his prime. In 2020 Watson made his third straight Pro Bowl while throwing for 4,823 yards. Nobody expects that Watson to surface again. But what if it happens?

If this Browns team gets top-10 quarterback play from Watson they could improve by a few wins, and that’s saying something after they won 11 last season. Everything else around Watson, including a two-time NFL Coach of the Year in Kevin Stefanski, is championship level. The main reason the Browns are not higher in the Super Bowl odds is Watson, and we’re talking about a quarterback who was once elite and isn’t 30 yet. If Watson is even average the Browns can win a tough AFC North and be a Super Bowl contender. If Watson is far better than average, Cleveland can be the best team in the NFL. That’s the Browns’ ceiling.

Nightmare scenario

This is easy. If Deshaun Watson looks like the far below average player we’ve seen since Cleveland traded for him, what will the Browns do? They can’t get out of Watson’s contract. They gave up the world for Watson and have gotten practically nothing in return. Two straight seasons, Watson has been outplayed by his journeyman backup (Jacoby Brissett in 2022, Joe Flacco last season). The Browns come into this year with a loaded roster and if it’s torpedoed again by Watson, that trade will start to look like perhaps the worst in NFL history.

A few years ago the Browns set themselves up tremendously well for a long-term rebuild, stockpiling draft picks and hoarding salary-cap space as they lost games. When the time was right, they could chase a franchise quarterback. They did, and made a suspect decision to trade for Watson and his off-field baggage amid sexual misconduct accusations. If Watson isn’t good again and the Browns miss the playoffs, it will be clear that Cleveland blew its shot to be a contender the moment it “won” the sweepstakes to land Watson from Houston.

The crystal ball says …

Deshaun Watson isn’t a player most fans will root for. That’s irrelevant to the Browns. They just want to see a return on one of the most expensive trades ever, and it seems like if it doesn’t happen this season then it never will. It’s tough to depend on Watson, but he can be at least a decent quarterback this season. If he’s just better than Joe Flacco, the Browns can have a special season. This is a really good roster with a top-end coaching staff. I’ll likely pick the Browns to win the AFC North and maybe more before the season starts. Then it will all come down to which version of Watson the Browns get.

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