We all should have known to buckle up on Sunday when Week 14 started with a Baker Mayfield comeback victory. But, as expected, the NFL weekend didn’t disappoint. I’m still reeling from the fact Todd Bowles devised a game plan to beat Patrick Mahomes in Super LV, but watched helplessly as his defense got unmercifully cooked by a rookie quarterback drafted in the seventh round. 49ers futures found new life, while it appears it’s time to send any Bucs bets to the shredder. Whether it was Tua Tagovailoa turning in his worst performance of the season, or Davis Mills giving the Cowboys’ defense all it could handle, the unpredictable performances always present a tough test for bettors.
We all know the rules. Don’t fall victim to recency bias. There is a reason it’s called “Overreaction Monday.” However, putting on your blinders when the odds open for the upcoming week is easier said than done. Instead of ignoring the crazy events each NFL weekend, sometimes you can find value in betting against them. We went 1-1 on last week’s buy-low teams, so let’s give it another swing this week.
The Jets were the Lions a few weeks ago. A young team with a second-year coach trying to prove they belong in the playoff conversation. But consecutive losses against the Vikings and Bills have cooled the Jets’ expectations, and this week they host the hottest team in the NFL.
Dan Campbell has seen his Coach of the Year odds shorten rapidly this weekend after proving the Lions were rightful favorites against the then-10-2 Vikings. The Lions have also covered six straight as favorites. But, as the Falcons found out early in the season, the market eventually will catch up to every team.
This is the week to sell high with Detroit and buy low with New York. Jets QB Mike White appears to be likely to play, and I think the offense will be able to move up and down the field against the Lions. The massive difference between these two defenses is a big factor in betting on New York. The Jets allow only 4.8 yards per play, tied with Philadelphia, Dallas, and San Francisco for the fewest in the league. That’s pretty good company.
On the other hand, the Lions allow the most at 6.2 yards per play. They are 30th in passing yards per game and 31st in yards allowed per passing attempt. Detroit’s offense has been one of the season’s biggest surprises, but the Lions are heavily reliant on the offense carrying the team. They are 1-5 in games in which they were held to 28 points or less, and I can’t imagine them putting up those numbers in New York. The Jets allowed 28 or more points only once this season, 13 weeks ago in the second week of the season in a win over the Browns.
Jared Goff has had some forgettable games in cold weather, but the Jets’ pass rush will give him the most problems. Robert Saleh’s defense is currently tied for the third-most sacks, and its 79.7 pass-rushing grade is behind only Philadelphia and Dallas — two teams that beat Detroit this season. It’s a bad spot and an even worse matchup for the Lions, who will struggle on the road against one of the strongest defenses they have faced. So take the Jets to cover this short number at home.
Do you remember when Atlanta started the season 6-0 against the spread? It feels like an eternity ago as the Falcons followed up their profitable start by covering only once in their last seven games. But lucky for us, the market has left them for dead, making them 3.5-point underdogs to the New Orleans Saints. The Saints (4-9) are 1-4 in their last five games, coming off a deflating 17-16 loss to Tampa Bay in which they allowed 14 points in the final few minutes of the game. These two teams are NFC South rivals, and I expect this to be a very competitive game with both teams coming off bye weeks. Therefore, this is an excellent opportunity to buy low on the Falcons and capture the key number of 3 with the divisional dog.
A lot has changed for both teams since the Saints beat the Falcons in Week 1 but didn’t cover as 5.5-point favorites. The Saints have turned the offense over to Andy Dalton, while Falcons rookie QB Desmond Ridder will make his first career start for Atlanta. Quarterbacks drive the market, and the uncertainty on Ridder is a big factor in why we are getting a good number with Atlanta. Of course, there is risk in backing a rookie in his first start, but if Brock Purdy taught us anything, uncertainty isn’t a blind fade.
A strong running game is a young quarterback’s best friend. Atlanta dials up runs at the second-highest clip in the league, so expect an even-heavier dose. Atlanta ranks in the top five in yards per rush, rushing yards per game, and rushing first downs per game. The Saints’ rush defense has improved as the season progressed, but it’s not strong enough to force the Falcons out of their comfort zone. So I will take the dog with a strong running game and a rookie quarterback against a Saints team that can’t stop turning the ball over and making mistakes in critical situations. I am betting Atlanta doesn’t have to do much outside of letting the Saints find another way to lose. The points are too valuable to pass up.