I’m in a NFL contest where you need to submit five ATS picks each week. Through five weeks, those picks are 16-9 after finishing 3-2 last week. Picking a single winner can be tough — much less picking five — but it’s a good challenge. It’s worth noting that the lines are set spreads released each Wednesday and selections are submitted Friday night.
Here are the five ATS picks I like for Week 6 in the NFL:
Dolphins +3.5 vs. Vikings
Vikings QB Kirk Cousins is traveling to Miami for the first time in his NFL career. Transitioning from a dome to 90 degree heat with high humidity is not for the faint of heart. We saw the troubles it causes when Josh Allen and the Bills faced the Dolphins in Week 3. The Bills lost by two points. That was with starting quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, however, and now Miami has third-string QB Skylar Thompson starting instead.
Still, the Vikings are prone to one-score games with a four-point win over the Lions and a three-point win over the Saints. The Vikings defense is also not immune to allowing sub-par offenses to perform well. Minnesota’s defense gave up 22 points to the Bears. Chicago QB Justin Fields had his best performance of the season against the Vikings, completing 71% of his passes for 208 yards (the only time he’s topped 200 yards this season) and averaging nearly 10 yards per pass attempt. Thompson will be fine.
Cowboys +6 at Eagles
Philadelphia may be 5-0, but four of those wins came against teams ranked bottom six in defense DVOA. The Dallas Cowboys are top six. Against the only other top 10 defense the Eagles have faced, QB Jalen Hurts had zero passing touchdowns, threw one interception and was sacked twice. The Cowboys’ defense has been tested against Tom Brady, Joe Burrow, a Brian Daboll-coached team and last year’s Super Bowl Champs, the Los Angeles Rams. Both LB Micah Parsons and DE Demarcus Lawrence are off the injury list, which means they will bring the pressure to Hurts. Not to mention, Dallas is best in the league at limiting opponent touchdowns. We’ll finally get to see what this Philly team is made of.
Falcons +5.5 vs. 49ers
The San Francisco 49ers are playing back-to-back road games. Whom do the Niners face next week? The 2020 Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs, who defeated Jimmy G and Kyle Shanahan 31-20. The Falcons have three losses but all three have been by six points or fewer.
Atlanta has impressed by being competitive against some good defenses in the Saints, Rams and Bucs and yet are still third in total rushing yards and top 10 in yards per carry. Utilizing a three-back system between QB Marcus Mariota and RBs Tyler Allgeier and Caleb Huntley, I like the Falcons to find a way to backdoor, possibly catching the 49ers in a look-ahead spot.
Cardinals -2.5 at Seahawks
The Seattle Seahawks are nearly last in the league in almost every defensive metric and have allowed six touchdowns from outside the red zone, tied for most in the league. If Kyler Murray can’t get right against the worst defense in the league, then I’ll be worried for this team moving forward.
Up to now, the Cardinals have faced Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs, the Rams and Panthers defense, and arguably one of the best teams in the league in the Eagles. Facing a Seattle defense ranked 32nd should feel like a vacation for Murray and Co.
We’ve watched a lot of Denver games this season because the NFL insisted on putting the Broncos on the schedule for seemingly every prime-time game. The offense may be lackluster (31st in points per game), but the strength is in the defense. The Broncos are allowing only 28% of plays as touchdowns, the second-lowest rate in the league. That contributes to why games involving the Broncos are averaging 31 total points, the fewest in the league.
With points at a premium, I like the Denver defense to keep this competitive. If prime-time games have shown us anything, it won’t be pretty, but it’s the ugly games that can lead to cashed tickets.