Yahoo fantasy football analyst Scott Pianowski reveals his weekly NFL betting ticket in his Throwing Darts column. Check out where he’s putting his jelly beans for Week 6. All lines are courtesy of our friends at BetMGM.
So far, so good with the 2022 ATS picks (five straight winning weeks), but it’s a long season. Keep the head down, keep grinding.
Colts -2 vs. Jaguars
It’s a revenge spot for the Colts, they’re at home, the line is under the customary -3, and Indianapolis has additional rest after playing on a Thursday night. The Jaguars showed some swaggy buzz after the first three weeks, but they were awful at Philadelphia and a mess in last week’s loss to mediocre Houston. The Colts are certainly not without flaws, but this is a get-well spot for them.
I understand how difficult it is to back Pittsburgh right now, but this line is essentially equal in relative value to the +14 the Steelers were spotted last week at Buffalo — and the Bills are easily a tier higher than Tampa Bay on my power ranks. Mike Tomlin will at least get his guys to show up. Part of my handicapping ethos is being open to backing teams that look awful in the moment; that’s why there’s a point spread.
Normally I’m dismissive about revenge narratives in the NFL; there’s revenge, somewhere, on every snap (I know, I know, I’m using it for the Colts). But Bill Belichick would rather have a leg amputated than lose to the Browns. New England could have easily won at Green Bay two weeks back, then blew out Detroit last week. This anonymous and scrappy group might sneak into the AFC playoffs.
Dolphins +3.5 vs. Vikings
Miami will be more prepared for the Skylar Thompson experience this week, and this Vikings team isn’t the type of outfit I want to trust spotting points on the road.
Green Bay seems to have trouble putting teams away — witness the second-half bagel against the Giants — and the Jets offense is interesting, so long as Zach Wilson doesn’t give the game away.
Last Week: 4-1
Season: 19-6
Pianow’s historical Throwing Darts record (only two losing seasons in 13 years) can be found here.