Just because the NFL regular season is over that doesn’t mean we stop looking for betting opportunities. Even with just six games on tap, there are still teaser options available.
As a reminder, here are some general guidelines to follow if you are wagering on NFL teasers to keep risk in check.
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Stick to six-point teasers (you need to win more consistently to offset the higher price).
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Keep it to a two-team teaser (the more pieces you add, the greater the risk).
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Target lower-totaled games (the more points expected, the more variance involved).
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Tease through the key numbers of three and seven (this approach is at the heart of all proven winning strategies).
Current NFL wild-card teaser leg options
Jaguars +8 vs. Chargers, 47.5
Bengals -1 vs. Ravens, 41.5
Buccaneers +8.5 vs. Cowboys, 45.5
NFL wild-card weekend unconventional options
Giants +9 at Vikings, 48
I threw in the unconventional leg for an additional option. Getting a spread at +3 or better is more valuable long term playing as a solo wager instead of tying to a teaser because of the volatility involved with correctly selecting two games for a winner.
NFL wild-card teaser to bet: Giants +9 and Bucs +8.5
The New York Giants are 10-2 ATS as underdogs. Giants quarterback Daniel Jones had his second-most passing yardage of the season and his fourth-best yards per average against the Vikings despite throwing just one touchdown pass. Jones can replicate that because the Vikings defense is 30th in yards allowed per play and 28th in opponent scoring allowed. Minnesota’s lack of defense has contributed to volatility. The Vikings won 10 games this season in which they were trailing, including eight games while trailing in the fourth quarter. In Minnesota’s 13 wins, 11 were by eight points or less.
Backing the Cowboys is scary business right now. Dak Prescott has thrown at least one interception in seven straight games and has tossed two picks in three of his five. The Cowboys have lost two of four, including the Week 18 closer against Washington. Dallas is the only team ever to make the playoffs with its quarterback generating -15 EPA (expected points added) or worse in the final game of the season. What helps Tampa Bay: This is the Cowboys’ third straight road game. The question is whether Tom Brady and the Bucs can capitalize on an injured secondary running on fumes. However, the playoffs are about experience, so I give the edge to Brady.