Week 10 of the NFL season draws more than a few teaser-leg options. With a few game totals lined at the lower end, this could be a great week for NFL teasers.
As a reminder, here are some general guidelines to follow if you are wagering on NFL teasers to keep risk in check.
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Stick to six-point teasers (you need to win more consistently to offset the higher price).
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Keep it to a two-team teaser (the more pieces you add, the greater the risk).
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Target lower-totaled games (the more points expected, the more variance involved).
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Tease through the key numbers of three and seven (this approach is at the heart of all proven winning strategies).
Current Week 10 teaser-leg options
Carolina Panthers +8.5 vs. Atlanta Falcons, 42.5
Seattle Seahawks +8.5 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 44.5 (Germany)
Detroit Lions +8.5 vs. Chicago Bears, 48.5
Denver Broncos +8.5 vs. Tennessee Titans, 36.5
Pittsburgh Steelers +7.5 vs. New Orleans Saints, 40
Arizona Cardinals +7.5 vs. Los Angeles Rams, 41
Teaser leg to avoid
Of these options, the only one that gives me pause is backing the Lions. Despite a win over Aaron Rodgers and the Packers last week, Detroit still has one of the worst defenses in the league. The Lions defense is allowing the highest rate of third-down conversions while also dead-last in forcing opponents to punt. That spells trouble against the Bears’ newfound surge of offense.
The impact that Justin Fields is having on Chicago’s offense is undeniable. His running ability has made the Bears diverse and explosive. In turn, Fields’ passing has improved too. In three straight games, Fields has completed at least 60% of his passes for six touchdowns and just one interception. As a result, the Bears have scored at least 29 points in those games. With the highest point total amongst the Week 10 teaser options, putting Lions in at +8.5 comes with high volatility.
Week 10 NFL teaser to bet: Broncos +8.5 and Steelers +7.5
Three of the Broncos’ five losses were against some of the better passing defenses in the league. The Colts, Chargers and Jets all rank in the top half in passing defense. As a result, Russell Wilson has looked less than stellar. This season, he’s completing 59% of his passes with just six touchdowns. However, coming off a bye and facing a Titans secondary that’s 30th against the pass offers Wilson a chance to rebound. What could help with an 8.5-point teaser cover is that the Titans offense has failed to score a touchdown in the fourth quarter of games. That could pose a huge problem against a Denver defense that’s No. 1 in opponent touchdowns allowed.
For the Steelers, this is more of a ‘keep it simple’ analysis. Is Mike Tomlin a better coach than Dennis Allen? Yes. Is Saints QB Andy Dalton a liability? Yes. Pittsburgh’s pressure rate has dipped this season without LB T.J. Watt in the lineup. However, there’s a possibility that we see Watt back on the field against the Saints after having not played since Week 1. In a win over the Bengals, Watt had a sack on QB Joe Burrow, forced one interception and had two passes deflected. That type of defense could largely contribute to a teaser cover against Dalton, who’s thrown four interceptions in his last three games with four sacks.