Football fans always feel the impact of the bye week first. After enjoying five weeks of a 16-game slate, the byes trimmed this past weekend’s action by two fewer games. The week off also introduces another layer for bettors to consider in their handicap. How will the week off benefit specific teams? Which coaches are likely to make impactful schematic adjustments? And, of course, which rosters could use the extra rest and recovery to get healthier? You will hear plenty of trends regarding coaches’ ATS records off the bye, but keep in mind each season is unique, and the team’s circumstances change each season.
Week 7 features four teams coming off a bye: Detroit, Houston, Las Vegas and Tennessee. Getting your break this early is mostly considered a competitive disadvantage, with 11 straight weeks of football looming ahead. However, there isn’t a team in the NFL that needed it more than the Detroit Lions. The Lions limped into the bye after a 29-0 blowout loss to the Patriots, but here is why I bet them to bounce back against the Dallas Cowboys.
It was easy to watch Detroit put up 35-plus points in three of their first four games and wonder if this season would be different. Unfortunately, after winning only one of their first five games, Detroit’s story will likely have the same ending as last year. However, that’s the perfect scenario for bettors. The Lions have clawed their way to a cover in 63.6% of games under Dan Campbell, the league’s third-best winning percentage since the start of his tenure. Outside of the blowout loss to the Patriots, they have kept games competitive even when they are the inferior team.
This bet is more about the spot than the on-field analysis of how these two teams match up. The Cowboys are clearly the more talented team, but we also live in a world where favorites are getting to the window only 40% of the time. Injuries have decimated Detroit, but they come off having a full week to lick their wounds and prepare for Dallas. In addition, their two biggest playmakers, D’Andre Swift and Amon-Ra St. Brown, are expected to be 100% for the first time since Week 3. They are also getting some reinforcements returning from injury on the defensive line and secondary.
The Cowboys are getting a big boost as well with Dak Prescott expected to return, but it’s fair also to expect some rust in his first game back. But then again, everyone scores on the Lions. So the probability of Detroit covering this number is based on their ability to score on the Cowboys defense. That’s where D’Andre Swift makes a massive difference. The Lions can weaponize Swift’s receiving ability out of the backfield against one of the NFL’s most aggressive defensive fronts. Lions QB Jared Goff has done a decent job against comparable pass rushes in Philadelphia and Washington. Goff had his best game of the season, throwing for four touchdowns and zero interceptions, in their only win against the Commanders. I am confident he can keep the game competitive enough to cover the number against Dallas with his full arsenal of playmakers.
Not only are the Cowboys at a rest disadvantage, but they are also coming off a deflating 27-16 loss to Philadelphia. The win gave the 6-0 Eagles two games of separation from the Cowboys and bumped them to third place in the NFC East. There can be a residual impact when teams come off emotional games or play against physical teams. Philadelphia’s opponents are 1-4 ATS the following week and have failed to cover in four straight weeks. The only team to make money for bettors after facing Philly this season: The Detroit Lions. Let’s restore the roar and get Dan Campbell back to cashing tickets. Grab the key number with the underdog.
Stats provided by rbsdm, teamrankings.com