One reason we see quite a few first-year coaches win NFL Coach of the Year is because they’re entering a situation in which the bar was set very low by their predecessor.
The New York Giants‘ bar was set low by Joe Judge. Very low.
As long as Brian Daboll didn’t call give-up quarterback sneaks on third-and-9, he was already a step ahead. As we know, Daboll has been much more than that for the Giants.
New York is 6-1 and feeling good about itself after a streak of fourth-quarter comebacks. It has been a long time since Giants fans had much to cheer about, and there has been plenty to get excited about this season.
Daboll seems like a clear NFL Coach of the Year favorite, but the odds say otherwise.
Brian Daboll not COY favorite
Daboll is second in the Coach of the Year odds. The favorite spot is held by Philadelphia Eagles coach Nick Sirianni.
Here are the current odds at BetMGM:
Sirianni +140
Daboll +250
Robert Saleh, New York Jets +800
Kevin O’Connell, Minnesota Vikings +1200
Every other coach has at least 20-to-1 odds. (As an aside, everyone likes to dunk on Mike McCarthy, but 40-to-1 odds for a coach who did keep the Dallas Cowboys in the NFC East race while Dak Prescott was hurt? Hmm.)
Sirianni is a fine favorite. The Eagles are the last undefeated team in the NFL and their schedule sets up for them to post a gaudy record. A 15-2 finish really isn’t out of the question. If the Eagles post that kind of a record, Sirianni will get votes.
But when we think of what voters look for with the award — the criteria really is nonsensical many years, across all sports — we know that they’ll look at the Eagles coming off a playoff season and this season’s improvement won’t be enough to catch their eye.
But a coach who came in with a hot name after his time with the Buffalo Bills and revived a marquee, big-market franchise that has been to the playoffs just once since a Super Bowl win more than 10 years ago? That’s catnip for Coach of the Year voters.
Giants have had big turnaround
Three of the last five NFL Coach of the Year winners were in their first year with a new team. The blueprint for rookie head coaches is easy to understand. A team that is so far down it fires its coach gets a huge win improvement the next season. It has to be the work of the new coach, right?
Turning around a big-market franchise never hurts either. The Giants don’t have a supremely talented roster, but Daboll is getting the most out of it. They’re winning close games late and have banked enough wins that their playoff chances look really good. Football Outsiders has the Giants’ odds to make the playoffs at 78.1 percent. Their story will continue to get attention.
If the Giants go from 4-13 last season, their fifth straight double-digit loss season, to a playoff berth in Daboll’s first season, it’s hard to imagine he won’t win NFL Coach of the Year. And let’s not fool ourselves, doing it in New York absolutely helps his chances.
There’s a long way to go and maybe the Giants’ hot streak ends. Perhaps the Eagles post a ridiculous record or the tide turns toward the Vikings winning the division or some other coach catches voters’ eyes. But the path for Daboll to win the award is wide open. And he’s not even the favorite yet.