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The Sweet 16 has arrived and only eight teams will be left in the NCAA Women’s Basketball Tournament after Saturday night. After my picks went 17-8 (68%) for +14 units in the first two rounds, I have one pick on a double-digit seed in the Sweet 16. Now is also a good time to reset and look at the futures market heading into the second weekend of March Madness.
South Dakota vs. Michigan:
South Dakota was far from a popular upset pick in the tournament, with only 6.4% of brackets taking the Coyotes to make the Sweet 16. I was not among that 6.4% (FGCU, my double-digit Cinderella pick, lost in the Round of 32), but I’m hopping on the Coyotes bandwagon for this matchup with Michigan.
The Wolverines have a much more recognizable program and bettors are skeptical that a double-digit seed could make the Elite Eight, especially since a double-digit seed has never advanced to the Final Four.
Michigan is not always comfortable shooting from beyond the arc, as the Wolverines took 7.3% fewer above-the-break three-point attempts than the NCAA average, according to CBB Analytics. Instead, the Wolverines rely on points in the paint to score the majority of points, with a 99th percentile scoring average from the paint on 96th percentile frequency from inside.
That’s an area of strength for the South Dakota defense, as the Coyotes rank in the top-10 percentile for limiting points in the paint frequency, accuracy and scoring average. The team also leads all remaining tournament teams in deterring opponents from the rim while holding opposing offenses to the lowest field goal percentage at the rim so far in March Madness.
South Dakota allowed opponents to score the fewest fast-break points per game on the lowest fast-break field goal percentage among Sweet 16 teams, so there won’t be many opportunities for Michigan to get easy buckets in transition. The Coyotes play at an extremely slow pace, ranking 306th in the country in possessions per 40 minutes, but still managed to put up a top-10 net rating in the league this year, according to Her Hoop Stats.
I project this game as close to a pick-em, and I’d put one unit on South Dakota up to +4. I can see this game going either way, but I’ll take the points with the underdogs and hope that the Coyotes are able to win the strength-on-strength matchup in the paint to advance to the first Elite Eight in program history.
EDGE: South Dakota +4.5 (1 Unit)
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Futures:
South Carolina is still the betting favorite at PointsBet Sportsbook to win the tournament despite shooting under 30% from the field for the first time all season in the Round of 32. The Gamecocks are favored by 9.5 points against North Carolina, the largest spread of the Sweet 16 round. I already took South Carolina prior to the tournament so I’m staying off the current price at even money.
Another future I’ve been tracking throughout March Madness is on Stanford. The top seed in the Spokane region will play a tough matchup against a red-hot Maryland team in the Sweet 16, but Stanford is still my pick to face South Carolina in the championship and I took the Cardinal at even money to make the Final Four before the tournament.
Some books are offering tournament specials on March Madness, and one interesting prop is the winning region. Oddsmakers don’t give the Wichita region much of a chance, with odds of +700 to win the tournament. The team to emerge from the Greensboro region, which will likely be South Carolina, is the favorite at -125, which means there’s little value in taking Greensboro unless you’re high on Iowa State’s chances. If you really want to fade South Carolina, the safer way to approach that would be taking the -145 price for the field in the South Carolina vs. Field market on DraftKings.
The only region where I see value in the winning region market is Bridgeport. Connecticut is the second-highest team in PointsBet Sportsbook’s championship odds despite a potential Elite Eight date with N.C. State, the top-seeded team in the region. I’ll likely pick N.C. State to come out on top in that matchup, but whoever advances should be among the top contenders for the championship. Connecticut’s odds of +300 aren’t much better than the +225 offered on Bridgeport to win, so if you’re considering backing Azzi Fudd and the Huskies, I’d look at the winning region market instead.
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