In years past, Virginia and North Carolina have been battling it out near the top of the ACC. This season the Cavaliers and Tar Heels find themselves squarely on the NCAA Tournament bubble, making February’s action make-or-break in a conference that ranks fifth on the NCAA’s NET metric.
Virginia (15-9, 9-5 ACC) is starting to come on strong after a road win on Monday over Duke, an outcome that pushed the Blue Devils down a slot from No. 2 to No. 3 on the seeding line. Because of an ugly NET score in the 80s and a poor non-conference strength of schedule, Virginia is still one of the “first four out” but the more wins compiled in the next month, the more likely we’ll see this program dancing.
North Carolina (17-7, 9-4 ACC), in its first season under coach Hubert Davis, got routed by archrival Duke over the weekend but bounced back with a narrow road victory over Clemson on Tuesday. The Tar Heels now have won five of six and that’s the exact recipe this team will need to stay in the safety zone. UNC’s currently a No. 11 projected seed.
Meanwhile, Notre Dame is firmly on the bubble as a play-in No. 12 seed in the latest projection despite being tied with Duke atop the ACC. It’s an example of how the NCAA selection committee pays no attention to league rankings and how a team has to make up for lost ground if it plays poorly in non-conference games, as the Irish did. Notre Dame is surging, though, having won seven of its past eight.
Outside of the ACC, Southern Methodist is a team that finds itself on the outside looking in, but consider Wednesday night’s upset win over Houston a step in the right direction. Coach Tim Jankovich’s squad needed that win to make a case for an at-large bid due to the fact that there are limited opportunities to enhance the profile with Quadrant 1 wins in the American Athletic Conference. SMU has a Quadrant 4 loss to Loyola-Marymount that is contributing to it staying out of the field for now, but there’s plenty of games left in the AAC to keep building up the NET score.
No. 1 seeds
Auburn, Gonzaga, Purdue, Kansas.
Last four in
Belmont, West Virginia, Notre Dame, Creighton.
First four out
San Diego State, Oregon, Virginia, Florida.
Next four out
SMU, Santa Clara, Washington State, Saint Louis.
***
***
Others considered for at-large bids: Cincinnati, Minnesota, Saint Bonaventure, Santa Clara, St. John’s, Colorado, Memphis, Kansas State, Michigan, Ohio, North Texas, Stanford, Dayton, VCU.
On life support: Virginia Tech, Rutgers, Drake, Vanderbilt, Louisiana Tech, Richmond, UCF, Missouri State, South Carolina, Texas A&M, Florida State.
Multi-bid conferences: Big 12 (8), Big Ten (7), Big East (7), SEC (6), ACC (5), West Coast (4), Mountain West (3), Pac-12 (3), Ohio Valley (2).
Leaders or highest NET from projected one-bid conferences – (23 total): A10 – Davidson; AAC – Houston; America East – Vermont; Atlantic Sun – Jacksonville State; Big Sky – Montana State; Big South – Longwood; Big West – Long Beach State; CAA – Towson; C-USA – UAB; Horizon – Cleveland State; Ivy League – Yale; MAAC – Iona; MAC – Toledo; MEAC – Norfolk State; Missouri Valley – Loyola-Chicago; Northeast – Wagner; Patriot – Colgate; Southern – Chattanooga; Southland – New Orleans; SWAC – Southern; Summit – South Dakota State; Sun Belt – Appalachian State; WAC – New Mexico State.
-
Ineligible schools: Oklahoma State (banned), Cal Baptist, North Alabama, Merrimack, Dixie State, Tarleton State, Bellarmine, UC San Diego, St. Thomas.
***
NCAA Tournament language explainer:
-
NET stands for the NCAA Evaluation Tool, which is the barometer for the selection committee. It includes game results, strength of schedule, game location, scoring margin (capping at 10 points per game), and net offensive and defensive efficiency.
-
Quadrant 1 wins: Home games vs. 1-30 NET teams; Neutral-site games vs. 1-50 NET; Away games vs. 1-75 NET
-
Quadrant 2 wins: Home games vs. 31-75 NET; Neutral-site games vs. 51-100 NET; Away games vs. 76-135 NET
-
Quadrant 3 wins: Home games vs. 76-160 NET; Neutral-site games vs. 101-200 NET; Away games vs. 136-240 NET
-
Quadrant 4 wins: Home games vs. 161-plus NET; Neutral-site games vs. 201-plus NET; Away games vs. 241-plus NET
Note: Most statistical data is used from WarrenNolan.com. The NET rankings (NCAA Evaluation Tool) also are a reference point.
About our bracketologist: Shelby Mast has been projecting the field since 2005 on his website, Bracket W.A.G. He joined USA TODAY in 2014. In his ninth season as our national bracketologist, Mast has finished as one of the top three bracketologists in the past eight March Madnesses. He’s also predicted for The Indianapolis Star, collegeinsider.com and is an inaugural member of the Super 10 Selection Committee. Follow him on Twitter @BracketWag.
About our college basketball reporter: Scott Gleeson has covered men’s college basketball for USA TODAY since 2012, contributing to bracketology and running Bubble Tracker before tackling everything March Madness following Selection Sunday. He correctly forecasted Virginia would win the national championship in 2019 before the season began and also picked Loyola-Chicago as a Cinderella mid-major in 2018. Follow him on Twitter @ScottMGleeson.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Bracketology: ACC bubble teams UNC, Virginia, Notre Dame are surging