There’s a misconception about tanking.
It’s not a coach going to his players and telling them to do less than their best during games. That would be leaked fast and would not go over well (ask the Miami Dolphins, it comes out eventually).
Teams tank by tearing down the roster so you can’t win games. And it can work. The Philadelphia 76ers did it, though they didn’t get the ultimate reward for it. The Chicago Cubs and Houston Astros did each win a World Series after a total teardown.
That brings us to the 2022-23 NBA season. As you know, there’s a once-in-forever prospect coming in the 2023 draft, 7-foot-2 Victor Wembanyama (or maybe he’s 7-3, or 7-4 … whatever, he’s tall and incredible). Even No. 2 prospect Scoot Henderson is a nice prize. Teams will be going for those ping-pong balls, and some are starting from day one.
On opening night of the NBA, we saw that some teams aren’t going to be anywhere near competitive. That has to be on bettors’ radars.
Which teams will be tanking?
There were six teams with a win total of less than 29.5 at BetMGM coming into the season: San Antonio Spurs, Houston Rockets, Indiana Pacers, Oklahoma City Thunder, Utah Jazz, Orlando Magic.
Other than the Utah Jazz, who shockingly beat a listless Denver Nuggets team on Wednesday, that group looked pretty bad in their season openers.
The Spurs were a pick ’em against the Charlotte Hornets, who were without LaMelo Ball, and lost 129-102. The Rockets lost by 10 points at the Atlanta Hawks, pushing the 10-point spread or barely covering the 10.5, depending on what number you got. The Pacers, a 2.5-point home underdog to a mediocre Washington Wizards team, lost 114-107. The Thunder lost 115-108 to the Minnesota Timberwolves, though they did cover an 11.5-point spread. The Magic lost 113-109 to the Detroit Pistons, failing to cover the 2.5-point spread.
That’s 1-5 for that group, with the weird Jazz result as the outlier. It’s going to be a long season for those teams, and a long one for bettors looking for value on them.
Teams will continue to tear down
It’s not great for the NBA or bettors either when so many teams clearly aren’t too worried about winning this season.
Opening night actually wasn’t too bad from a spread standpoint for those teams, though the lines will be shifting a lot as the season goes on. Don’t expect to see the Spurs as a pick ’em very often this season. Gregg Popovich already warned everyone that his Spurs won’t be good. And on opening night, they weren’t.
If opening night was bad for those teams, imagine what it will look like in February and March. The Pacers are likely to trade Myles Turner and Buddy Hield at some point. Other Wembanyama contenders will strip it down further. We’re going to have a lot of games involving teams racing to the bottom, which means a lot of games for bettors in which you’re either taking a huge favorite or backing a team you know isn’t trying to win. It might be more profitable just laying off. At very least it might be difficult to consistently take some of those big underdogs.
It’s just one game in and we’ll see where the season goes for teams like the Spurs and Pacers. But be warned already that when you’re betting the NBA, you have to keep a close eye on which teams are already looking ahead to the lottery.