Wednesday, June 30, brings split-slate action with the first of two getaway days this week. Let’s get into the top MLB DFS picks for pitchers and stacks for Yahoo, DraftKings and FanDuel daily fantasy baseball lineups.
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MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks, Wednesday, June 30
June has been a disastrous month for Justus Sheffield, who has allowed two home runs in each of his four starts. This has resulted in a 7.58 ERA with 1.895 baserunners per inning. Toronto has an embarrassment of riches on offense and hung nine runs on Seattle yesterday. Once more, gamers can turn to Lourdes Gurriel Jr. ($15) and Randal Grichuk ($14) on Yahoo to help average down the salary cap impact of the top-tier hitters. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. ($27) is a bit of a luxury option, but Marcus Semien ($21), Bo Bichette ($22), Teoscar Hernandez ($20) and George Springer ($19) are all carrying reasonable salaries.
Awesemo’s MLB DFS experts have created a new MLB Home Run & Strikeout Player Prop Tool that can help when making MLB DFS picks and offer some action down in the sports betting market. This expert tool is designed for predicting the probability of hitters to hit home runs and pitchers to reach a certain number of strikeouts.
St. Louis Cardinals vs. RHP Riley Smith — 5.4 implied runs
Today marks the sixth start of the season for Riley Smith, who has worked as both a starter and reliever. In a twist, his last four appearances have all been out of the bullpen for multi-inning outings, including three where he was the second pitcher in replacing an ineffective starter. While he is stretched out enough to go 60 to 65 pitches, that is unlikely, as he has been pretty awful himself. In his last two times on the mound, he has tallied a combined 5.2 innings, five runs, five hits, four home runs and four strikeouts.
In their last nine games the Cardinals have plated more than four runners only once. On the season only Nolan Arenado, Tyler O’Neill and Paul DeJong have found sustained success against right-handed pitchers. Dylan Carlson and Paul Goldschmidt have finally been seeing positive results over the last month, and they are the other Cardinals to look to this afternoon. Though they used three relievers yesterday, the Arizona bullpen is relatively fresh.
Houston Astros vs. RHP Matt Harvey — 6.2 implied runs
The only reason that Matt Harvey is still in the league is that the Orioles are desperate for pitchers to take the mound every five days. This season he has made 16 starts and has a 7.54 ERA and 1.74 WHIP while allowing 12 home runs. Over his last 350 batters faced, Harvey has allowed a .234 ISO to lefties, a .269 ISO to righties and has below-average strikeouts. Last night Baltimore used three relievers for a combined 116 pitches and six on Monday for 114 pitches. This is to say that the cavalry is not riding in to save the day.
Even with Alex Bregman on the injured list, Houston still has one of the best offenses in the league. There are very few weak spots in the lineup, and even Alex Toro and Miles Straw have had success this year with all the fierce bats surrounding them in the lineup. The top six in the order are the primary focus on all slates. Let salaries and position requirements guide decisions when choosing between Yordan Alvarez, Yuli Gurriel, Jose Altuve, Michael Brantley, Carlos Correa and Kyle Tucker.
Top Target: RHP: Aaron Nola vs. Miami Marlins — 3.5 implied runs
Tonight, Aaron Nola is the standout option across the board. He has a nice matchup with the Marlins, and his team is nearly 2-to-1 favorites to win. Miami has been sketchy at best against righties this season and is in the bottom third of the league with an 88 wRC+. Its .134 ISO is the third lowest in the league, while its 25.2% strikeout rate is the seventh highest. In its projected lineup, Jazz Chisholm (30.8%), Adam Duvall (31.4%) and catcher Jorge Alfaro (34.0%) are a tremendous source of strikeouts.
Secondary Target: RHP Chris Bassitt vs. Texas Rangers — 3.4 implied runs
In a surprise twist, 32-year-old Chris Bassitt continues to build on the success of last season and has yet to allow more than four runs in a game. Looking all the way back to 2019, Bassitt has allowed more than four runs only three times in 52 starts. Texas has been a bottom-10 offense by most metrics this season when facing right-handed pitchers. On Thursday Bassitt held the Rangers to just one run across seven innings in Arlington. As long as he can navigate Joey Gallo and Adolis Garcia, he should once again have a strong showing from a fantasy perspective.
Wild Card Option: RHP Bailey Ober at Chicago White Sox — 4.3 implied runs
While there is no need to consider rookie Bailey Ober on FanDuel, there are not many discount pitching options on DraftKings and Yahoo where two pitchers are required. The White Sox have been good but not great against right-handed pitching, and they are essentially league average in most categories. A lot of this has to do with injuries, and they have seemingly half of their starting lineup on the shelf. Adam Eaton, Jake Lamb, Adam Engel, Nick Madrigal, Eloy Jimenez and Luis Robert are all on the injured list, and now Yoan Moncada is banged up as well. This recommendation is for tournaments only, and it is all about being able to allocate extra salary cap to hitters. If Ober can go four innings, adding a handful of strikeouts and only a couple of runs allowed, it will be worthwhile.
Final Thoughts for the Wednesday, June 30, MLB DFS Slate
Keep an eye on the weather forecasts leading up to first pitch in the Midwest and the East Coast. It is going to be hot and humid with the chance of evening thunderstorms in a variety of locations. As always, be mindful that salaries and scoring formats differ across the various fantasy sites, and a home run play on Yahoo may be a below-average MLB DFS pick on DraftKings or FanDuel.
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