Sunday, Sept. 5, has a tricky 10-game slate with all sorts of traps and pitfalls. Let’s get into the top MLB DFS picks for pitchers and stacks for Yahoo, DraftKings and FanDuel daily fantasy baseball lineups.
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks, Sunday, Sept. 5
Yahoo Stack of the Day: Toronto Blue Jays vs. LHP Cole Irvin — 5.5 implied runs
The Yahoo salary algorithm is providing a nice discount on the Blue Jays bats. Cole Irvin will be taking the mound on Sunday, and he has been suspect over his last three games, with a 5.92 ERA four home runs allowed and only three strikeouts.
George Springer ($22), Vladimir Guerrero Jr. ($17) and Marcus Semien ($18) each have ISOs over .220 against southpaws over the last two seasons. Not to be outdone, Teoscar Hernandez ($18) has posted a .427 wOBA and .362 ISO in that same timeframe. Lourdes Gurriel ($15) and Bo Bichette ($12) both have above-average power and have favorable salaries. Finally, the key to any Toronto stack is Randal Grichuk ($7), who is coming in at the Yahoo minimum salary and has the platoon advantage.
Mid-Slate
Milwaukee Brewers vs. LHP Jon Lester — 4.9 implied runs
Jon Lester is the latest casualty of Father Time. Over his last two seasons spanning 34 starts, Lester has suffered an ERA that is nearly 1.50 runs above his career average. The strikeouts have fallen off, the opposing power numbers are up, and he is allowing almost three more base runners per nine innings than his standard baseline.
The first priority should be any righty with even a modicum of power. In his last 582 lefty/righty matchups, Lester has suffered a .367 wOBA, .208 ISO and a lowly 13.7% strikeout rate. Willy Adames has been working through some nagging injuries, but he has a .225 ISO against opposite-handed pitchers over the last two seasons. Luis Urias may get the nod as the leadoff man, and though his contact needs improvement, he has above-average power and should get five plate appearances at the top of the order.
Switch-hitter Eduardo Escobar is back after missing two weeks while recovering from a hamstring issue. He had put together a solid August prior to that injury after being acquired from Arizona at the end of July. Avisail Garcia has been dealing with a sore back and hamstring tightness, but he should be in lineups if he plays. Christian Yelich offers differentiation from the field simply by keeping him out, as he has struggled this season.
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Late Slate
Seattle Mariners at LHP Tyler Gilbert — 4.6 implied runs
In the three starts since his no-hitter, rookie Tyler Gilbert has been average at best. He has allowed a 5.40 ERA, two home runs and two stolen bases in 15 innings. This should not be a surprise, as it took him six seasons in the minors to make MLB. The Seattle righties should be priority targets on the late slate.
Mitch Haniger has been phenomenal against southpaws, with a .366 wOBA and .293 ISO. Ty France has been improving every month, and he has been slotted in more often than not as the cleanup hitter when the Mariners are facing a southpaw. If Tom Murphy is behind the plate on Sunday, he is a strong option in all formats. Finally, Kyle Seager hit his career-best 32nd home run last night, and he has a long track record of success against same-handed pitchers.
Spotlight Pitchers
Top MLB DFS Picks Target: RHP Corbin Burnes vs. St. Louis Cardinals — 3.2 implied runs
Sunday will mark the fourth time that Corbin Burnes has squared off against the Cardinals. In his previous three starts he logged a combined 17 innings, allowing just one earned run and 11 total baserunners. While that is no guarantee of today’s performance, keep in mind that Burnes is second in MLB with his 2.27 ERA and third with an 0.94 WHIP. The cherry on top is the 12.2 strikeouts per nine innings, which trails only Gerrit Cole.
Secondary MLB DFS Picks Target: RHP Dylan Cease at Kansas City Royals — 4.0 implied runs
This will be the fifth time that Dylan Cease has been on the mound against Kansas City. In his prior 22.2 innings he has a miniscule 1.21 ERA and no home runs allowed. Over his last 10 starts Cease has been locked in with a 3.34 ERA, 1.09 WHIP and 12.2 strikeouts per nine innings. The Royals have had their moments this season, but the back half of their lineup is barely replacement level. Salvador Perez launched his 39th and 40th home runs on Saturday and is now just three behind Shohei Ohtani for the league lead. Cease will need to be careful against Perez, Whit Merrifield and Carlos Santana, though after that Kansas City is getting by with smoke and mirrors.
Wild Card MLB DFS Picks Target: RHP Luis Castillo vs. Detroit Tigers — 3.5 implied runs
Though he has been getting a bad rap this season, Luis Castillo has allowed more than three runs only once in his 18 starts since Memorial Day weekend. In these 109.2 innings he has a 2.87 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 0.73 home runs per nine innings and just over one strikeout per frame. Detroit is a mediocre offense at best, and they will be without the designated hitter in Great American Ballpark on Sunday. Castillo offers no salary relief, but as long as the masses are staying away, he is an intriguing option in tournaments. One other thing to note is that Castillo has 15 quality starts, which gets a bonus on FanDuel.
Final Thoughts for the Sunday, Sept. 5 MLB DFS Picks Slate
Very few games on the main slate will see temperatures above 80 degrees, which should give a boost to pitching. Keep in mind that weather, particularly heat and humidity, is one of the biggest catalysts for offense. Some gamers may lose sight of this as the NFL starts to take their attention, and they may not be as focused on the little things that provide a DFS edge.
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