Monday, Sept. 6, brings an early seven-game main set on Labor Day, with a handful of late-afternoon and evening matchups. Let’s get into the top MLB DFS picks for pitchers and stacks for Yahoo, DraftKings and FanDuel daily fantasy baseball lineups.
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks, Monday, Sept. 6
Yahoo Stack of the Day: Baltimore Orioles vs. LHP Kris Bubic — 5.0 implied runs
Kris Bubic has struggled over his last six appearances, lasting just 24.2 innings and posting a 6.93 ERA, 1.743 WHIP and 2.18 home runs allowed per nine innings. Most concerning is that he is averaging 5.8 walks per nine innings in this stretch. The Orioles are well suited to take on southpaws; their current roster ranks in the top third of MLB, with a 107 wRC+.
Trey Mancini ($11), Ryan Mountcastle ($21) and Austin Hays ($13) all have ISOs over .215 over the last two seasons. Ramon Urias ($12) continues to improve at the plate, and if Pedro Severino ($11) is behind the dish, he knocks out the catcher requirement. Forgoing Mountcastle makes this is a nice discount stack; since he is at this lofty salary, playing just one of Mountcastle or Mancini creates differentiation.
Mid-Slate
Cincinnati Reds at LHP Justin Steele — 4.9 implied runs
Prior to the pandemic-shortened seasons, Justin Steele had not pitched above Double-A. This year the saw time at Triple-A prior to being called up to the Cubs rotation. At best he projects as a multi-inning reliever who lacks command and tends to leave pitches over the plate. In his last four starts he has lasted just 17.2 innings, allowing a 4.58 ERA and four home runs while striking out 14.
Though Cincinnati is a below-average team against southpaws, they have concentrated production. Nick Castellanos carries a premium salary, but he has an outstanding .369 wOBA and .260 ISO in his last 181 righty/lefty matchups. Aristides Aquino is a pinch-hit risk as soon as a right-handed pitcher enters the fray, but he has tremendous power. Kyle Farmer and Jonathan India are solid options, and Tyler Stephenson should be in the mix as well, making for a fine option on sites where he has catcher eligibility. Eugenio Suarez has been a mess at the plate, but he has been getting a lot of extra-base hits when he makes contact.
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Late Slate
Minnesota Twins at LHP Logan Allen — 5.0 implied runs
Logan Allen has been a rollercoaster with his performances this season. Even though Minnesota traded pretty much everything at the deadline, the top half of their order sets up well against lefties. Byron Buxton is healthy at the moment, and he has a .237 ISO in his last 79 matchups against southpaws. Josh Donaldson continues to rake when he is engaged, and with his .240 ISO over the last two seasons against opposite-handed pitchers, he is worth the gamble. Miguel Sano (shoulder) should be in the lineup, and he is a great tournament option. Jorge Polanco is never exciting, but he should be near the top of the order and has a decent chance at five plate appearances.
Spotlight Pitchers
Top MLB DFS Picks Target: RHP Brandon Woodruff vs. Philadelphia Phillies — 3.5 implied runs
This has been a career year for Brandon Woodruff, who is third with a 2.35 ERA, fourth with a 0.94 WHIP and ninth with 10.6 strikeout per nine innings. Though the Phillies are far from an easy mark, they are a below-average offense against right-handed pitchers. Aside from Bryce Harper and J.T. Realmuto, the rest of their projected offense can be described as pesky at best.
Secondary MLB DFS Picks Target: LHP Tarik Skubal at Pittsburgh Pirates — 4.0 implied runs
This recommendation is about the matchup with the pathetic Pittsburgh offense, which has a league-worst 77 wRC+ against lefties. In addition to creating runs 23% less efficiently than league average, they are bottom three from a power perspective while striking out 22.7% of the time. Like most young lefties, Tarik Skubal has had his ups and downs this season. The main issue has been home runs, with just over two per nine innings, but he has strikeout upside of just over 10 per nine innings.
Wild Card MLB DFS Picks Target: LHP Chris Sale vs. Tampa Bay Rays — 3.2 implied runs
Tampa Bay is far from an easy mark, as they are leading the American League East by 7.5 games. They are a top-10 offense against lefties, with a 107 wRC+ while striking out 24.2% of the time. On Monday Chris Sale will be making his fifth start of the season, and he has seen his pitch count increase with each appearance, topping out at 95 on Wednesday against the Rays.
Late Slate MLB DFS Picks Target: RHP Lance McCullers Jr. vs. Seattle Mariners — 3.5 implied runs
Lance McCullers Jr. has a 54.9% ground ball rate and a 27.9% strikeout rate in his last two seasons. That is a rare combination, and when coupled with the Astros being nearly 2-to-1 favorites to win against the Mariners, he is the easy recommendation for top late-slate pitcher. Rookies Bailey Ober and A.J. Alexy are options on two-pitcher sites as well as in tournaments.
Final Thoughts for the Monday, Sept. 6 MLB DFS Picks Slate
Monday’s holiday brings wall-to-wall baseball with a frontloaded slate. Be sure to register early for contests, as they are bound to fill up fast.
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