The App is Back! Don’t forget to download the NBC Sports EDGE app to receive real-time player news, mobile alerts and track your favorite players. Plus, now you can check out articles and player cards. Get it here!
Welcome to another fantastic week of baseball. Unlike some MLB Mondays, we have a massive slate to choose from tonight, and I’ve picked out two bets that I’m really digging. Without further ado, let’s get down to them.
Pittsburgh Pirates (+105) vs. Washington Nationals (-125) Total: 9
My first instinct in this game was to fade Jon Lester and back one of my favorite starting pitchers in J.T. Brubaker. Looking a bit closer, though, I think both pitchers should have an easy go of it here.
As a proud member of the Bru Crew, I hereby declare applications open again. After incredibly rough outings against the Cardinals and Braves — two great offenses — the righty has found his groove once again with just three earned on nine hits and a walk over his last 10 2/3 innings. I believe it to be true that Brubaker, who exercises exceptional control and flashes a good slider, is a good pitcher. It’s the perfect time to buy back in on him, too, with the Nationals ranking 14th in wRC+ over the last two weeks.
One spot below them is the Pirates, and though I do lean towards them if I’m picking a side, it’s hard to say they’re going to hit the ball well in this one. They rate as one of the worst offenses versus lefties this year, and the problem hasn’t been strikeouts, with just 23.7% of plate appearances ending in a punchout against lefties, it’s been quality contact.
Jon Lester has not been good, but it’s generally just been because he doesn’t strike anyone out. Against a team like this, he should have a bit more success.
Edge: Under 9
Editor’s Note: Get an edge with our premium Betting Tools that are packed with live odds, betting trends, predictions, player prop projections, our extensive Edge Finder and much more. And don’t forget to use promo code SAVE10 to get 10% off. Click here to learn more!
Los Angeles Angels (+125) vs. Oakland Athletics (-145) Total: 8
Two games, two low-scoring affairs. This one features two pitchers which I think will start to trend in opposite directions of their season-long lines. Sean Manaea carries a 3.09 ERA into this one, and has people believing again after back-to-back scoreless outings. The problem? Those outings were against the Mariners and Diamondbacks, and mask the mistakes we’ve seen for the better part of a month.
Manaea gave up 10 hits and five walks in his two outings against the Angels before his opponents got easier, and before that was in the midst of a tough run. His .252 xBA still leaves a lot to be desired, and against a team with a 133 wRC+ over the last two weeks, which ranks second in that span, and a top-10 wOBA against lefties, things should be tricky.
On the other hand, Dylan Bundy has been one of the unluckiest pitchers in baseball with a 4.19 xERA jiving with his 6.16 ERA. He’s still generated whiffs this year, and we know how problematic strikeouts can be for the A’s. Combined with the fact that they’re much better against lefties, I think the A’s have no business being favorites of this magnitude.
Edge: Angels +125
PointsBet is our Official Sports Betting Partner, and we may receive compensation if you place a bet on PointsBet for the first time after clicking our links.