THE DETAILS
When: Wednesday, 6 p.m. Central Time
Where: Rupp Center, Lexington, Kentucky
TV: SEC Network
Radio: KMBZ (98.1 FM)
Betting line: Kentucky by 19
PROJECTED LINEUPS
|
P |
No. |
Kentucky |
Ht. |
Yr. |
PPG |
|
G |
2 |
5-9 |
Jr. |
11.0 |
|
|
G |
3 |
TyTy Washington |
6-3 |
Fr. |
13.9 |
|
G/F |
31 |
6-5 |
Gr. |
11.2 |
|
|
F |
12 |
Keion Brooks Jr. |
6-7 |
Jr. |
10.9 |
|
F |
34 |
6-9 |
Jr. |
16.1 |
|
|
P |
No. |
Missouri |
Ht. |
Yr. |
PPG |
|
G |
0 |
Anton Brookshire |
6-1 |
Fr. |
2.1 |
|
G |
5 |
Javon Pickett |
6-5 |
Sr. |
9.0 |
|
G |
12 |
DaJuan Gordon |
6-3 |
Jr. |
8.3 |
|
F |
23 |
Trevon Brazile |
6-9 |
Fr. |
6.3 |
|
F |
24 |
Kobe Brown |
6-8 |
Jr. |
14.8 |
PREDICTION
About Kentucky (9-2): The Wildcats are 9-2 so far this season. Their losses were to Duke and Notre Dame. UK’s best win was a blowout against North Carolina. Kentucky is currently No. 18 in the AP poll was ranked as high as No. 9 earlier in the year. As is often the case with John Calipari’s teams, there’s a lot of talent on this Kentucky roster. Oscar Tshiebwe, a 6-foot-9 forward transfer from West Virginia, is making a case for national player of the year. He leads the country with 15.5 rebounds per game, is on pace for the best rebounding rate in the history of KenPom and also averages 16.1 points on a SEC-best 65.9% shooting percentage. He set a Rupp Arena record with 28 rebounds last time out against Western Kentucky, outrebounding the entire Hilltoppers team, which includes 7-5 big man Jamarion Sharp. The Wildcats have four other double-digit scorers: potential lottery pick TyTy Washington (13.9), three-point specialist Kellan Grady (11.2), guard Sahvir Wheeler (11.0) and forward Keion Brooks Jr. (10.9). Wheeler, a Georgia transfer, is also averaging 7.7 assists per game, most in the SEC and second-most in the country. KenPom ranks UK No. 11 (as of Tuesday morning).
About Missouri (6-6): The Tigers enter conference play with a 6-6 record. Most recently, they suffered a 88-63 defeat to Illinois on a neutral court in the annual Braggin’ Rights game. It was the second-most lopsided loss for Mizzou in the 41-year history of the series. Three-point shooting woes continue to hurt Mizzou, with only three teams in the country shooting worse than MU’s 24.3% against Division I opponents. Forward Kobe Brown has been the leader for this team all season, averaging 14.8 points, 8.9 rebounds and 2.3 assists, but another intriguing option has emerged down low in Trevon Brazile. The 6-9 freshman played in his first game on Dec. 7 and has started the last two. He had a career day against Illinois, recording 11 points, five rebounds and six blocks in 24 minutes. Look for him to play an increasing role moving forward. KenPom ranks Missouri No. 155 (as of Tuesday morning).
Prediction: Based on what we’ve seen so far from Missouri, wins in the SEC are going to be few and far between. The Tigers’ conference slate opens with a tough task: No. 18 Kentucky at Rupp Arena, a building in which the Tigers have never won.
Mizzou will be without head coach Cuonzo Martin, who tested positive for COVID-19 early this week. All of Mizzou’s players are said to have tested negative. Assistant coach Cornell Mann will serve as their acting head coach.
A huge part of Missouri’s offense is putback buckets. That’s a product of shots not falling the first time and a top 35 percentage in offensive rebounding. The Tigers have scored 135 of their 810 total points via putbacks, good for 15.2% of their total offense. In its six wins this season, Mizzou has averaged 15.5 offensive rebounds and 16.3 second chance points.
Stats like that figure to be elusive against Kentucky and a rebounding force of Oscar Tshiebwe’s caliber. The Wildcats are holding opponents to a 22.9% offensive rebounding rate this season, which ranks among the top 25 in the country. On top of that, they lead the nation in that category (45.4%).
It seems likely that the Tigers will fall behind early and dig themselves into a hole too big to overcome, as they often have against formidable opponents this year. The Wildcats are averaging 83.3 points per game and have scored over 95 in each of their last two contests. If they can produce even close to that, the Missouri offense simply won’t be able to keep up. Especially since the Kentucky defense has only allowed one opponent — Duke — to score more than 70 points.
KenPom gives Mizzou a 5% chance of winning while the ESPN BPI places those odds at just 2.9%.
Missouri 65, Kentucky 93