Mizzou Tigers basketball vs. Illinois: Braggin’ Rights prediction, time, TV, lineups

THE DETAILS

When: 8 p.m. Central time Wednesday

Where: Enterprise Center, St. Louis

TV: Big Ten Network

Radio: KMBZ (98.1 FM)

Betting line: Illinois by 13

PROJECTED LINEUPS

About Illinois (8-3): The Fighting Illini started 2021-22 ranked No. 11 in the country. They’ve dropped out of the Associated Press poll, but don’t let that fool you into thinking Brad Underwood’s team isn’t good. Illinois has three wins over high major opponents and it ranks in the top 20 of the NET rankings. The three blemishes are all Quad 1 losses; the first to Marquette was without All-American big man Kofi Cockburn, the one to Cincinnati was a weirdly uncharacteristic shooting night on a neutral court and the most recent was against Arizona, currently ranked No. 6. The Illini have been without starting point guard Andre Curbelo for the past six games due to a neck/head injury. But they’ve still got the 7-foot, 285 pound Cockburn, who is averaging 21.4 points and 11.9 rebounds per game, and Utah transfer guard Alfonso Plummer has averaged 23.0 points over the last seven. KenPom ranks Illinois No. 13.

About Missouri (6-5): The Tigers are coming off an 83-75 win over shorthanded Utah last Saturday. Kobe Brown scored a career-high 27 points and grabbed six rebounds in that contest, marking the fourth time he’s scored over 20 points this season. Coach Cuonzo Martin still hasn’t found the right starting lineup, once again tinkering with it by throwing freshmen Anton Brookshire and Trevon Brazile into the mix in that game. Guard Amari Davis and forward Ronnie DeGray III, the players they replaced, ended up playing more minutes though. Big man Jordan Wilmore didn’t play at all, as he’s struggled to prove he can handle the role the coaching staff expected him to prior to the season. His lack of development could be a big issue in this game, as he’s the only player on the roster who matches the size of Cockburn. KenPom ranks Missouri No. 146.

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PREDICTION

Missouri has come away with the Braggin’ Rights trophy in each of the last three meetings with Illinois. Will the streak continue?

As we’ve documented throughout the season, three-point shooting remains non-existent for the Tigers. This makes for quite the dilemma against the Fighting Illini, who are hard to score against inside the arc. They have held opponents to 42% shooting on two-point attempts, which ranks top 15 in the nation.

But an electrifying offense that averages 80.5 points is really what makes this Illinois team go. Prior to Tuesday night’s slate of games, the Illini ranked 11th in the country in offensive efficiency (114.0), 15th in three-point shooting (39%) and 20th in effective field goal percentage (55.6%), per KenPom. They’re also second in offensive rebounding percentage (42.1%).

Illinois’ three losses have all been games where it shot under 40% from the field and was held below 30 points in the paint. If Missouri wants to come away with the upset, it’ll need to follow that same formula. But it’s worth noting that all three of those teams — Marquette, Cincinnati and Arizona — have significantly better defenses than Mizzou. By a lot.

The Tigers have managed to pull off upsets against Illinois teams that were much better than them in each of the last two seasons (both sides were pretty terrible the year before that in 2018-19) and Braggin’ Rights games tend to breed chaos, but I just don’t see that happening again this time around. Especially since they don’t have anyone who can match Cockburn down low.

KenPom gives Mizzou an 11% chance to win and the ESPN BPI odds are at 7.2%.

Illinois 86, Missouri 65

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