It’s officially crunch time for men’s college basketball teams hanging on the NCAA Tournament bubble – with less than three weeks until Selection Sunday.
Every major win can be a step in the right direction and every ugly loss can mar a team’s hopes for inclusion in the field of 68.
The teams surging in late February heading into early March tend to showcase more than just the chance for an at-large ticket. They’re often capable of winning multiple games during March Madness.
The six most dangerous teams on the bubble:
1. SMU
The Mustangs (19-6, 10-3 AAC) have won three of four, including marquee victories over Houston and Memphis in American Athletic play. Coach Tim Jankovich has a team with great guard play – fueled by Kendric Davis (19.4 ppg) – that’s shown it can beat top-tier teams with potential to make it to the NCAA Tournament’s second weekend. Bracketology projection: Last four in.
2. Notre Dame
The Fighting Irish (19-8, 12-4 ACC) just lost a nail-biter to Wake Forest but before that had won five straight. Notre Dame has a win over Kentucky and is one game back of Duke atop the ACC standings, so its potential isn’t reflected in the numbers. Bracketology projection: No. 10 seed.
3. Creighton
The Blue Jays (18-8, 10-5 Big East) have won five consecutive games and are hitting their groove in Big East play. Coach Greg McDermott has a balanced roster with four players averaging double figures and a smothering defense – ranking in the top-30 of KenPom’s defensive efficiency ratings. Bracketology projection: No. 10 seed.
NCAA Tournament bracketology: The battle for a No. 1 seed will be as close as ever on Selection Sunday
4. Rutgers
The Scarlet Knights (16-10, 10-6 Big Ten) went on a rampage with four consecutive wins against elite Big Ten programs, knocking off ranked foes Michigan State, Ohio State, Wisconsin and Illinois. That run bolstered their lacking credentials and also showed how scary this team could be as a draw in the NCAA Tournament bracket. A road loss to Purdue this weekend won’t hurt but there’s still work to do. Bracketology projection: No. 11 seed.
5. Belmont
The Bruins (24-5, 14-2 OVC) have won 10 in a row but remain behind top dog Murray State in the Ohio Valley Conference race. Should they miss out on the league’s automatic bid, it’ll go down to the wire on Selection Sunday. This is a team that does a lot of things right, led by super senior Nick Muszynski (16.4 ppg). The Bruins can shoot the lights out, ranking fifth nationally in field goal percentage. Bracketology projection: Next four out.
6. VCU
Winners of five in a row, the Rams (18-7, 11-3 Atlantic 10) could be in trouble if they don’t win the A-10 Tournament since Davidson is out front. But should they keep bulking up their profile and impress the selection committee, this isn’t a team power conference foes will want to face come March. VCU beat Syracuse and played Baylor and Connecticut close. Coach Mike Rhoades is all about defense and this team ranks fifth nationally in KenPom. Bracketology projection: Next four out.
Follow college basketball reporter Scott Gleeson on Twitter @ScottMGleeson.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: NCAA Tournament dangerous bubble teams include Notre Dame, Rutgers