Just take a moment and appreciate how nice Thursday will be.
For the first time since 2019, we’ll have a (hopefully) normal Thursday at the NCAA tournament. The 2020 tourney was scrapped due to COVID-19. Last year we had a tournament, but it wasn’t all the way back. It was held entirely in Indiana and with limited fans it didn’t feel right. It was great to have March Madness, but it wasn’t the same. VCU having to forfeit a first-round game due to a COVID-19 outbreak was a brutal blow for the school and a reminder that nothing was normal.
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Thursday’s tournament action should feel normal. Finally. Here are picks for every game on Thursday, in chronological order, with odds from BetMGM.
Colorado State (+1.5) over Michigan
Surprisingly, this is the most-bet game of the first round according to BetMGM. Good way to kick things off. And most bettors are taking the Wolverines. Michigan is probably better than its 17-14 record. But not by much. The Wolverines have been a major disappointment. They’re not great on defense, can’t shoot the 3 and blowing a massive lead to Indiana in the Big Ten tournament shows how flawed they are. Colorado State is a good, solid team that has simply been better than Michigan this season.
South Dakota State (+2.5) over Providence
Two things were clear before the bracket was revealed: Everyone was going to be picking sharp-shooting South Dakota State as a trendy upset, and everyone was going to be fading Providence due to their metrics not being in line with their seed (thanks to a great record in close games). Well, those two got matched up. I’ll join the masses in picking the Jackrabbits, the best 3-point shooting team in the nation.
Memphis (-2.5) over Boise State
Memphis was supposed to be very good this season, and they weren’t through Jan. 20. That’s when they fell to 9-8. Since then they’re 12-2. The only reason they’re a No. 9 seed is that bad start, because what we’ve seen since then is impressive. Nothing against Boise State, but this is one of the easiest picks on the board for me.
Norfolk State (+20.5) over Baylor
I don’t get too involved in the No. 1 vs. No. 16 games, but since we’re picking every game I’ll lean Norfolk State. Baylor’s injury situation concerns me for the tournament, but the Bears will win in the first round. They just might not cover.
Longwood (+17.5) over Tennessee
There are some big spreads for No. 3 vs. No. 14 games this year. Tennessee probably shouldn’t be a No. 3 seed though. The Vols got penalized because the SEC tournament ends on Sunday. They project more like a high No. 2 seed, but Longwood has been playing well and could cover.
Iowa (-10.5) over Richmond
The Hawkeyes’ bandwagon will overflow after they won the Big Ten tournament. And it is a fun team led by All-American Keegan Murray. Richmond won some close games to get the Atlantic 10 auto bid, and I don’t think they can hang against a hot Iowa team here.
Gonzaga (-3.5) over Georgia State
Gonzaga was a 33-point favorite in the first round last season … and covered by 10. Georgia State isn’t a big team, doesn’t shoot it well and thrives off forcing turnovers which won’t happen against Gonzaga. This will get ugly.
North Carolina (-3.5) over Marquette
For most of January, Marquette looked great. Since then, they’re 3-6 and one of the wins was over Georgetown, which barely counts. North Carolina didn’t have a great resume before beating Duke, but they’re doing better than Marquette.
UConn (-6.5) over New Mexico State
New Mexico State has become a consistent program from the one-bid WAC. But UConn does everything pretty well and they’re not giving enough points to scare me off.
Kentucky (-17.5) over St. Peters
St. Peter’s is a good defensive team, but that’s in the MAAC where they won’t get bullied inside. Kentucky, with player of the year favorite Oscar Tshiebwe, can bully St. Peter’s inside.
Indiana (+2.5) over St. Mary’s
There are plenty of teams that get sent to the First Four, yet win multiple tournament games. Indiana played well on Tuesday and looks like it’s peaking. St. Mary’s is very good, but I like the Hoosiers and the points.
San Diego State (-2.5) over Creighton
San Diego State is fantastic on defense. In an 8/9 game I like a team that does something really well. Creighton hasn’t yet felt the impact of a season-ending wrist injury to guard Ryan Nembhard (11.4 ppg), but this might be the game in which it shows up.
Vermont (+5.5) over Arkansas
This is tough because I like Arkansas as a dark horse Final Four pick, but Vermont is a tough first-round matchup. They’re a machine on offense. I’ll take Vermont to win a close one, then Arkansas to get on a roll.
Murray State (-2.5) over San Francisco
It’s a bummer two fine mid-majors go against each other in the first round. San Francisco opened as a favorite but that flipped to Murray State. I agree with the line move. Murray State hasn’t lost since Dec. 22 to Auburn and they do everything well (though it’s not a great free-throw shooting team). USF is very good too but I prefer Murray State.
UCLA (-13.5) over Akron
Akron will slow it down and the Zips are pretty efficient on offense. That makes it tougher to lay a double-digit number with the Bruins. But the Bruins have the top-end talent to get a lead early and force Akron to speed up, which could lead to a blowout.
Kansas (-21.5) over Texas Southern
No. 6 St. Mary’s vs. No. 11 Indiana lf of its First Four game to pull away and win, and they could cover a big spread on Thursday night. But Kansas has been playing well and should have an easy win.