Dec. 3—The Red Sox waited until just minutes before the lockout, but Wednesday night Chaim Bloom finally made a splash.
In quick succession, he signed starting pitchers Rich Hill and James Paxton before trading Hunter Renfroe for old friend Jackie Bradley Jr. and a pair of prospects.
While perhaps not the moves most were expecting, the Red Sox now enter the lockout with significantly improved outfield defense and a much deeper starting rotation, but still with plenty of question marks. At a glance, the moves might not make a lot of sense, so let’s take a closer look at exactly what just happened, what the Red Sox hoped to accomplish and what additional moves might be coming.
Why trade Renfroe for Bradley Jr.?
Renfroe was one of Boston’s best free agent signings in 2021, joining the club on a one-year, $3.1 million deal, and he proceeded to deliver 31 home runs, 96 RBI and a league-leading 16 outfield assists. So why on Earth would the Red Sox trade him for Jackie Bradley Jr., a significantly worse hitter whose $12 million luxury tax figure is considerably higher than the $7.5 million Renfroe was estimated to receive in arbitration this year?
There are two explanations.
One, this deal isn’t really about Renfroe or Bradley Jr. at all, but rather the two prospects Boston also got in return. Alex Binelas was a 2021 third round draft pick who crushed Single-A pitching in his first summer of professional ball, and David Hamilton has elite speed and just stole 52 bases in 101 games split between High-A and Double-A.
They are legit and give Boston even greater organizational depth. That will eventually allow the Red Sox to swing huge trades without gutting the farm system, like the Dodgers did with Max Scherzer and Trea Turner last summer.
Two, we can all agree that Boston’s outfield defense was an issue last season, and even though Renfroe had a great arm, he also committed 12 errors. Bradley Jr. is an obvious upgrade defensively, but with his anemic bat it feels more likely he’ll wind up becoming the fourth outfielder and a defensive replacement. Last year he batted a mere .163 (63 for 387, 132 K’s) with a .497 OPS.
If that winds up being the case, Boston could potentially make another big move after the lockout ends.
They could re-sign Kyle Schwarber, have him play left field and move Alex Verdugo to right. They could also sign Japanese superstar Seiya Suzuki, a natural right fielder who boasts a rare combination of power and plate discipline.
The point is, the Red Sox have options they didn’t have 24 hours ago. It’ll be interesting to see what the team’s next moves are.
Rotation lined up for both short and long term
Fans hoping the Red Sox would sign a big free agent starting pitcher are probably disappointed by how the last few days played out. Michael Wacha, James Paxton and 41-year-old Rich Hill aren’t exactly Max Scherzer, or even Marcus Stroman, but they do provide some interesting possibilities for the rotation.
When the 2022 season begins, the Red Sox will have seven pitchers who could plausibly earn a spot in the rotation: Nathan Eovaldi, Chris Sale, Nick Pivetta, Hill, Tanner Houck, Garrett Whitlock and Wacha. That doesn’t include Paxton, who could become a factor by midseason once he returns from Tommy John surgery, or prospects like Connor Seabold and Kutter Crawford who conceivably could pitch their way into the conversation.
That’s plenty for Boston to work with, especially if Hill maintains his 2021 level of performance. Coming off a year in which he threw 158.2 innings with a 3.86 ERA, Hill is capable of filling the void left by Eduardo Rodriguez and backing up Eovaldi and Sale at the top of the rotation.
Where things get really interesting is in 2023 and beyond.
After next season, the only incumbent starters the Red Sox will have under contract are Sale and Pivetta. With Eovaldi, Hill and Wacha due to become free agents, the team will have flexibility in terms of how its rotation is constructed going forward.
If Houck, Whitlock or other prospects make the leap and establish themselves as legit big league starters, the Red Sox could simply hand them the ball and rest easy knowing their rotation is set for years to come.
And if they don’t? The Red Sox could just go ahead and sign a big free agent or two.
Still holes to fill
The Red Sox are much closer to being 2022 ready than they were on Wednesday morning, but when the lockout ends there will still be important moves to be made.
Bloom said Wednesday night that the team is still interested in adding another short-inning reliever, and also that with Renfroe gone they could use another right-handed bat to help balance the lineup.
There is also the question of baseball’s financial landscape once a new collective bargaining agreement is reached. Right now, it’s not clear how much payroll flexibility the club actually has, but barring any dramatic changes the club should be in good position to compete for the numerous premier free agents still on the market.
Until then, it wouldn’t be fair to draw any hard conclusions about the Red Sox offseason. The moves they’ve made are interesting, but there is still a lot of work left to be done.
Email: mcerullo@northofboston.com. Twitter: @MacCerullo.
Email: mcerullo@northofboston.com. Twitter: @MacCerullo.