The four active European players with the most Ryder Cup points to their names are Sergio Garcia (25½), Lee Westwood (23), Ian Poulter (15) and Justin Rose (14). And there is a good chance that come 5pm on Sunday Padraig Harrington will have to pick three from this quartet as his wild cards for the biennial dust-up in Wisconsin in less than two weeks’ time.
So long as there is not a play-off in the BMW PGA Championship at Wentworth, Harrington will then have two-and-a-half hours to make his decision, a little less if he intends to do the traditional ringaround to the lucky and unlucky. The Irishman will have his four assistant captains to assist in the deliberations – Graeme McDowell, Robert Karlsson, Luke Donald and Martin Kaymer. They should be wished the best. Of course, in this most volatile of pictures, the candidates could be wildly different from those above. Indeed, they could be altered by a single stroke of a player who has nothing whatsoever to do with the Ryder Cup. Take the Australian Adam Scott.
When he birdied the 18th on Saturday, he demoted Shane Lowry into a tie for seventh and out of the automatic top nine. Before that moment, Westwood had been projected to be relegated by 0.34 of a point.
In a tie for 43rd on five under after a 71, it seemed that the 48-year-old would need to make up at least a shot on Lowry in the final round or face being cast outside the “automatics” for the first time in 19 months.
Now, he just requires the status quo, which sees him projected 2.36pts ahead of Lowry. These are absurdly thin margins, and it has happened before.
In 1991 Eamonn Darcy was inched out in the final event by the grand total of £56.13. Then Bernard Gallacher did not select him., If Westwood did miss out in similar fashion, Harrington and team would not dare to overlook him, would they?
It was a question being asked with some exasperation on Saturday night.
One insider told Telegraph Sport: “I don’t think Harrington has the bottle. He has been telling everyone for months that Lee was almost certain of finishing in the top nine and that he would be vital in the team room. Lee earned so many points last year when winning the Race To Dubai that were ultimately deemed not to count because of Covid-19. If it comes to that, it would be a huge call and a very unpopular one. I just can’t see it.”
Harrington has said that Garcia would “almost need to lose a limb” not to get a wild card and that Poulter was “nearly the same”.
With Poulter missing the cut and Garcia electing to stay at home in the US, neither can make any more headway and they must be considered as the overwhelming favourites to take the first two picks.
Harrington faces a tense wait at the West Course on Sunday to discover who will be in contention for the third.
Rose is the Ryder Cup stalwart most exposed. If the former world No 1 wins, he probably qualifies automatically, but a third-round 72 saw him drop back into a tie for 14th on nine under, five off the pace set by Italian Francesco Laporta. Rose needs a big finale, although there is a scenario in which Bernd Wiesberger could yet fall short and it would then be a straight pick between Rose and the Austrian, a battle the former would be likely to win.
Wiesberger is in a tie for seventh on 11 under after a second successive 67 and now appears certain to leapfrog Rory McIlroy in the European Points list (leaving McIlroy to qualify via the World Points list and so knocking out either Lowry or Westwood).
But if Lowry were to win – and the 2019 Open champion is only three back – then Wiesberger would need to finish in the top seven to ensure he stayed above Lowry in the European list. And if he did not, then the top nine would remain the same as at the start of this bizarre week.
To many that would be the dream scenario, and Wiesberger knows this. Credit to the 35-year-old because after playing his first six holes in three over, he has valiantly fought his way to the brink of qualification. He has been flooded with Ryder Cup queries, but the prospective debutant has kept resolute in his simple philosophy.
“I’m aware that we have a Ryder Cup coming up, but my first and foremost desire is to play well here because it’s our flagship event which I’d love to win,” he said. “And that’s all I’ll be trying to do tomorrow.”
It was kind of Wiesberger to remind everyone that there is a £5.8 million tournament going on in which the victor will walk away with nigh on £1 million and add his name to a trophy including Seve Ballesteros, Sir Nick Faldo, McIlroy and Colin Montgomerie and most of Europe’s other golf superstars of yore.
Laporta, 30, has yet to lift a Tour title, but his two birdies on the back nine for a 69 hinted at a journeyman ready to seize his moment. England’s Laurie Canter is one back after a 70 and in a tie for third are Welshman Jamie Donaldson, Scott, American Billy Horschel and South African Christiaan Bezuidenhout. It is set to be a nail-biter on the leaderboard and on the qualifying boards, and then when Harrington announces his picks at 7.30pm. He should bring a calculator. And maybe a tin hat.