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Line Moves

At the start of the week we noted that there weren’t very many great values for the Drydene 400 at Dover International Speedway as oddsmakers pretty much nailed the opening lines. That was born out over the week with only minor adjustments to the top 10.

Martin Truex Jr. opened at +375 and remained there all week. His record of one win and two runner-up finishes during the past two seasons did not give traders much of an incentive to sweeten the pot, but there is a slight nod to the unpredictability of this season in the fact that these odds are slightly higher than his +350 last year.

Kyle Larson (+440) has 20 points shaved off his total. He was very strong on this track in lesser equipment and there is every reason to believe he is going to challenge for the win on Sunday. His Return on Investment (ROI) is not very great, however, and he only deserves a bet if you are covering the entire top 10.

Denny Hamlin (+580) has bounced around a bit this week with odds as high at +600. In the end, he settled almost exactly where he started. In order to make him a solid value, we would like to see at least 6/1 odds, but 20 cents shy of that mark puts him on the cusp.

He was one of our best values are the beginning of the week and enough money exchanged hands to shave 25 points from Kevin Harvick (+725). He is overdue a victory and as long as he continues to be above the 7/1 threshold, we believe he deserves a weekly bet. Harvick enters the weekend with four consecutive top-fives and a win in the second half of last year’s doubleheader.

Chase Elliott (+900) wound up precisely where he started, but if you were paying attention midweek, he briefly had 100 points added to his line. That extra $1 might come in handy if you are betting more than a couple of units on him, but 9/1 is a good enough ROI to make him an attractive bet on a course where he has been practically perfect in regard to top-fives – when he avoids engine failure or accidents, that is.

Team Penske mates Brad Keselowski (+1300) and Joey Logano (+1500) each had 100 points shaved from their lines. This organization has won with each of their three drivers, but they do not compete for the top spot with enough regularity to make them must-haves this week. Logano’s last Dover top-five came in 2018. Keselowski hasn’t finished that well since 2016.

The biggest mover this week is Alex Bowman (+1800). He opened at +2200, but after NBC analyst Steve Letarte highlighted him as a must-have in this week’s video chat, enough money poured in to take +400 points off his total. If he was worth a bet at 22/1, he is still worthwhile at 18/1. He has three top-fives in his last four Dover races including a runner-up finish in spring 2019.

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