After winning at Wisconsin, 38-17, on Saturday, you wouldn’t expect any of Michigan football’s win predictabilities according to ESPN FPI, but here we are. The chances that the Wolverines will win some games went up, while a few notable games saw some decreases, even though the maize and blue moved up from ESPN FPI’s seventh-ranked team to No. 5 in the country.
Again, FPI is an advanced analytics model which looks to the future, and Michigan went from being a likely 8-4 team according to ESPN to now having an expected 2021 won-loss of 10.1-2.2 — which would mark only the third time in Jim Harbaugh’s tenure that the Wolverines would win 10 games in the regular season, if that were to come to pass.
With five games in the books, here is how ESPN FPI predicts the final seven to play out.
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Big Ten power rankings after Week 5: Another new team at the top
Week 6: at Nebraska
(Photo by Steven Branscombe/Getty Images)
Previously: 67.9% Michigan win
Now: 63.2% Michigan win
Context
The upcoming opponent has shown increasing toughness, despite the 3-3 record. While a 63% chance of winning is still saying it’s quite likely, all of Nebraska’s three losses were by just one score. This is a night game in hostile territory, which makes it all the tougher. Michigan will have to continue to have a complete game to emerge undefeated.
Week 8: Northwestern
Photo: David Banks-USA TODAY Sports
Previously: 92.9% Michigan win
Now: 96% Michigan win
Context
Northwestern has cemented itself as the worst team in the conference by a wide margin. If Michigan doesn’t win this game handily, something has gone very, very awry.
Week 9: at Michigan State
Photo: Lansing State Journal
Previously: 54.6% Michigan win
Now: 57.9% Michigan win
Context
The Spartans are close to a mirror image of the Wolverines this year but with two big caveats. One, the pass defense is atrocious. Two, the seemingly good opponents that State has faced thus far have turned out to be not so great. Wins at Northwestern and Miami are aging poorly, but you have to credit MSU for handling business. This will be a tough one regardless, but Jim Harbaugh has yet to lose in East Lansing as the Wolverines head coach.
Week 10: Indiana
Photo: Matthew OHaren-USA TODAY Sports
Previously: 88.0% Michigan win
Now: 89.3% Michigan win
Context
Another game in the preseason that seemed daunting is back to being an obvious win. Indiana’s offense is in shambles and its defense has been intermittent. Michigan will be eager for revenge after last year, which makes the Hoosiers’ chance in Ann Arbor all the slimmer.
Week 11: at Penn State
Photo: Matthew OHaren-USA TODAY Sports
Previously: 53.3% Michigan win
Now: 51.7% Michigan win
Context
Penn State continues to roll so the Wolverines lost a little ground. The Nittany Lions continue to appear as a complete team — offense, defense, and special teams. It will take an enigmatic performance to emerge from Happy Valley with a win, but for now, Michigan is still favored.
Week 12: at Maryland
Photo: Scott Taetsch-USA TODAY Sports
Previously: 74.4% Michigan win
Now: 83.3% Michigan win
Context
Maryland is still quite the trap game sandwiched between Penn State and Ohio State, but the Terps got exposed against a tough Iowa team, which must lead the analytics to resolve that it’s the same old Maryland we’ve seen for years. The 4-0 start now has a one in the loss column, and it was a horrific implosion in the same week that the Wolverines stood tall in hostile territory.
Week 13: Ohio State
(AP Photo/Noah K. Murray)
Previously: 53.1% Michigan win
Now: 48.8% Michigan win
Context
So, clearly, the favoring Michigan to beat Ohio State for the first time since 2011 was in large part due to what the Buckeyes weren’t doing compared to what Michigan was doing. Now that OSU has strung together a couple games, especially with the rout at Rutgers, the analytics have shifted back to the rival in the south, despite the Wolverines obliterating Wisconsin on the road on Saturday.
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