Texas and Oklahoma took the first official step toward joining the Southeastern Conference with a letter informing the Big 12 that the schools would not renew their grant of rights that expire in 2025.
It’s game on for the rest of the Big 12, which less than two weeks ago was reveling about the return of football season at Media Days at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas.
In its quarter century of existence, the Big 12 has never lived by the Three Musketeers motto, “All for one and one for all,” like other conferences. But having football coaches and athletes under the Dallas Cowboys’ stadium roof after the pandemic wiped out the previous year brought a fun spirit to the event.
So much for that. Now, for the eight other schools, their future in sports basically comes down to these options: Remain together and possibly expand, or scatter to other conferences.
Big 12 commissioner Bob Bowlsby delivered his preference on Monday.
“Although our eight members are disappointed with the decisions of these two institutions, we recognize that intercollegiate athletics is experiencing rapid change and will most likely look much different in 2025 than it does currently,” Bowlsby said. “The Big 12 Conference will continue to support our member institutions’ efforts to graduate student-athletes, and compete for Big 12 and NCAA championships.
“Like many others, we will use the next four years to fully assess what the landscape will look like in 2025 and beyond. The remaining eight institutions will work together in a collaborative manner to thoughtfully and strategically position the Big 12 Conference for continued success, both athletically and academically, long into the future.”
Eight schools — Kansas, Kansas State, Iowa State, West Virginia, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, Baylor and TCU — have been mulling their future since last Wednesday, when the Houston Chronicle first reported the news that OU and Texas were headed out of the Big 12.
When the move could happen?
There is the business of departure, something the Big 12 knows well. The Longhorns and Sooners could remain in the conference until the end of the 2024-25 academic year, or they could depart early, which seems more likely but would incur a penalty of as much as $80 million each. That’s two years of combined revenue distribution from the league’s TV contracts.
Also, Big 12 bylaws require an 18-month notice to leave the conference.
Four schools — Colorado, Nebraska, Texas A&M and Missouri — have previously left the Big 12 and all did within a year of announcing their departure.
A windfall in penalty revenue would be a short-term financial boost for the remaining Big 12 schools. But their long-term prospects are unclear.
What is certain: There aren’t replacement possibilities with the TV appeal of Oklahoma and Texas. There are some that make sense geographically like Houston and Colorado State, which are among the schools considered by the Big 12 the last time expansion was discussed.
If the Big 12 stays together and expands, or has its members merge with a league like the American Athletic Conference, its value to networks for football will be diminished.
Would other Power Five conferences be interested in Big 12 schools?
Keep in mind, the move by Texas and OU wasn’t foremost in the thoughts of conference commissioners, and Kevin Warren of the Big Ten is in his second year. Pac-12 commission George Kliavkoff is about to begin his first football season.
Last week, Kliavkoff said his league would be in a listen mode.
“I consider the Pac-12 an exclusive club with a high barrier to entry,’’ Kliavkoff said Thursday. “I love the schools and the teams we have today. We are not actively seeking to poach any teams from any conferences. But we’d be foolish not to listen if schools call us.”
That has happened, according to a source. Some Big 12 schools have reached out to the Pac-12. A decade ago, the Pac-12 was ready to snap up Texas, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas A&M, Texas Tech and Colorado. Only the Buffaloes accepted the offer.
Today, the Pac-12 would have to consider its TV contracts and revenue distribution. Pac-12 schools received about $33 million each last year and Big 12 schools between $37 million and $40.5 million each, according to USA Today.
The Big Ten paid its schools $54.3 million. Warren said last week his league is “constantly evaluating what’s in the best interests of the conference.”
Options for KU and K-State?
Zeroing in on Kansas and Kansas State, what could they bring to a new conference? Kansas is a member of the prestigious Association of American Universities and has a historically strong men’s basketball program that would be beneficial to a conference network.
Its football program has been the worst in the Power Five over the past decade but still brings in enough income to make Kansas the third-richest program in the Big 12 behind Texas and Oklahoma.
Conference realignment is all about football and Kansas State has been consistently good, appearing in 21 bowl games since 1993. The Wildcats own a winning record over Texas as Big 12 members, and have beaten Oklahoma each of the last two years.
So, no one is giving the idea a stiff arm. The idea of expanding to super conferences of at least 16 teams has been floated for years. With the major changes in other areas — name, image and likeness creating financial opportunities for athletes, and the 12-team College Football Playoff proposal — is now the time for four major conferences of at least 16 members: SEC, Big Ten, ACC and Pac-12?
The SEC is already headed in that direction.