Details
Kickoff: 3:25 p.m. Central time Sunday
Where: Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara, California
TV: Fox (Ch. 4) in Kansas City
Radio: WDAF (106.5 FM) in Kansas City
Line: Chiefs by 2 1/2.
Jesse Newell’s prediction
These 49ers are not exactly as I anticipated after studying them further.
I figured San Francisco was a strong running team this year; that’s not the case. The 49ers ranks 26th in Football Outsiders’ all-encompassing rush metric (after finishing fourth a season ago).
I thought one of the 49ers’ greatest strengths defensively was likely their pass rush with Nick Bosa. And while that’s been solid, the team has thrived even more on the back end, where it’s posted the second-best team “coverage” grade at Pro Football Focus behind only the Denver Broncos.
And though I believed quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo might be holding the team back because of his lack of production throwing it deep or to the outside … he’s truthfully been pretty good since taking over for the injured Trey Lance, effectively getting it to playmakers so they can flourish in the open field.
The 49ers have been one of the most affected teams in the NFL by injuries recently, but they appear to have some optimism that key pieces will play against the Chiefs. That starts with excellent tackles Trent Williams and Mike McGlinchey and extends to Bosa, though it seems unlikely cornerback Charvarius Ward will be available for the rematch against his former team.
Coincidence or not, the Chiefs’ two best performances this season have come on the road, as they dominated in wins against Arizona and Tampa Bay. San Francisco should present a similar defensive challenge to that Bucs game — the 49ers rank third in defense, according to Football Outsiders — though, as you’ll remember, the Chiefs aced that test when they overwhelmed Tampa Bay while putting up 41 points.
San Francisco’s weakness offensively is its interior line, which has struggled mostly with run blocking. It goes without saying, then, that defensive player of the year candidate Chris Jones has a chance for another big day in the middle of the Chiefs’ defense.
Defensively, San Francisco has the league’s best run defense, according to Football Outsiders; that’s probably fine with KC, however, given its lack of production there and tendency to pass more than average teams anyway.
Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs’ passing game should win or lose this one. San Francisco has been primarily a zone team this season, but as we’ve seen recently, there’s been a trend for opponents to play more man against the Chiefs while making them prove they can shake free from downfield coverage.
After last week’s just-miss loss against the Bills, I think the Chiefs’ offense will perform well Sunday. And while Garoppolo (and underrated receiver Brandon Aiyuk) should test Kansas City’s defense, the 49ers’ lack of a potent run game should make for a less complicated game plan compared to a week ago.
The Chiefs have failed to cover the Vegas spread the last two weeks, but I actually like them a lot in a bounce-back spot here.
Give me KC for both the win and cover.
Chiefs 28, 49ers 20
Jesse’s pick to cover spread: Kansas City
Last game prediction: Bills 31, Chiefs 24 (Actual: Bills 24-20) ✔️
This year’s record vs. spread: 3-3