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Julian Alaphilippe - World champion Julian Alaphilippe wins crash-marred opening Tour de France stage - AFP

Julian Alaphilippe – World champion Julian Alaphilippe wins crash-marred opening Tour de France stage – AFP

  • Huge second crash overshadows opening Tour de France stage

  • Three riders abandon while huge time losses are incurred

  • Froome loses 14min 47sec; Geoghegan Hart 5min 53sec

  • Roglic third and leads 2020 winner Pogacar by 4sec

  • Thomas the highest placed Ineos Grenadiers rider

This Tour de France was already shaping up to be a thriller, it did not need two mass pile-ups on the opening stage to enliven proceedings. But that is exactly what we got as the 108th edition of cycling’s most famous race opened in completely bonkers fashion in Brittany.

World champion Julian Alaphilippe (Deceuninck-Quick Step) claiming victory with a trademark solo raid on the final climb of the day to take the first yellow jersey of the race, but only after the hopes of a number of general classification contenders were severely dented in what were chaotic scenes.

Britain’s Tao Geoghegan Hart and team-mate Richie Porte, two of Ineos Grenadiers’ awesome foursome, were among the highest profile riders to lose time – over five minutes in Geoghegan Hart’s case – while Chris Froome’s continued participation in the race was unclear.

The four-time champion, riding as a domestique for Israel Start-up Nation as he continues his slow comeback from a career-threatening injury, managed to finish the stage but very gingerly.

Crashes are part and parcel of professional cycling, of course. Particularly opening Tour stages, when riders are even more skittish than usual, with the eyes of the world trained on them and the stakes so high. But Saturday’s first crash, in particular, with around 44km remaining, was completely avoidable. A fan holding up a cardboard sign wishing their grandparents well – ‘Allez Opi-Omi!’ – managed to bring down half the peloton when they inadvertently knocked Jumbo-Visma’s Tony Martin off his bike, triggering a chain reaction. Replays showed the fan was looking the other way at the time of impact, up the road at the passing television motorbike rather than back down the road in the direction of the approaching riders.

There was an inevitable Twitter pile-on, with a number of useful suggestions as to what ought to be done with the culprit. “I don’t know much about the French legal system, but @JumboVismaRoad @tonymartin85 and anyone else affected by the crash should seek damages against the holder of the sign,” suggested former rider Scott Mercier, summing up the mutinous mood.

Riders were sent sprawling - REUTERSRiders were sent sprawling - REUTERS

Riders were sent sprawling – REUTERS

The second crash, inside the last 10km, was not the fault of a fan. A mere touch of wheels in the bunch at 85kph and again riders were sent sprawling in every direction, a number of them going head over wheels and into a ditch.

Froome was among those caught out, the 36 year-old taking a long time to get back to his feet and even longer to get back on the bike. After working so hard to come back from the broken neck, femur, hip and elbow he suffered following his big Critérium du Dauphiné crash two years ago, it felt particularly cruel that his race should be so compromised.

It was also a shame that it overshadowed what was a superb finale to the stage. Everyone knew that Alaphilippe, wearing the rainbow stripes of world champion, would attack on a climb that might have been tailor-made for him: 3km long with a sharp 14 per cent incline at the bottom. But no one could do anything about it. That is his genius.

Mathieu van der Poel (Alpecin-Fenix}, wearing a special jersey in homage to his grandfather, the French great Raymond Poulidor, was expected to provide the sternest test. But he, like everyone else, was powerless to respond when Alaphilippe went from the foot of the climb. “My intention was to get rid of some sprinters and fast climbers who could have made life difficult,” the Frenchman said afterwards. “I think they were on my wheel, or at least not very far back, because everyone expected my attack. We didn’t hide our ambitions, riding on the front all day.”

Alaphilippe becomes the first French rider to wear the maillot jaune in three successive Tours since Bernard Hinault in 1984, 1985 and 1986. He could hang on to it for a while, too, with the Mûr-de-Bretagne, which is up today, also to his liking. A special talent.

Behind him, Michael Matthews (BikeExchange) was second over the line, eight seconds down, while Primoz Roglic (Jumbo-Visma) laid down the first little marker in the race for the overall, nicking four bonus seconds as he crossed the line in third at the head of a posse of general classification hopefuls, among them Geraint Thomas who was 10th.

“It was a solid day,” said the Welshman, who is aiming for a second yellow jersey at the age of 35. “Stressful. Obviously that big crash at the end, I had no idea who was in it. I just concentrated on staying on my bike. I’m gutted about Richie and Tao but personally not too bad.” The Tour is up and running. One stage down, 20 to go.

03:36 PM

‘Most of Ineos finish stage one unscathed’

It may take some time to pick over the bones of today’s stage, but there will have been some big time losses from riders hoping to win the Tour de France, or at least see how far they could push themselves in the general classification. Ineos Grenadiers have tweeted, saying that both Tao Geoghegan Hart (5min 43sec) and Richie Porte (2min 26sec) ‘lost time’, but did not provide any update on the condition of the two riders. Geraint Thomas is the highest placed Ineos Grenadiers rider on general classification, the Welshman will go into tomorrow’s stage 18sec off the pace of Julian Alaphilippe, while Richard Carapaz is a further 5sec down.

03:25 PM

Alaphilippe: ‘This is really a special win for me’

Julian Alaphilippe has spoken: “It’s really incredible, honestly. It’s a scenario I imagined and the start of my Tour is success.

Julian Alaphilippe - GETTY IMAGESJulian Alaphilippe - GETTY IMAGES

Julian Alaphilippe – GETTY IMAGES

“It’s a super feeling, my team did great work, they took care of me and controlled things. In the final I was caught up in a crash but I was able to stay calm and then I had to finish off the work on the final climb, where we really wanted to make it hard and get rid of the sprinters. When Dries opened the gap I gave the maximum without asking any questions.

“It wasn’t planned to go from that far but when I went I saw I had a small gap and I saw everyone was à bloc so I decided to keep going. In the final kilometre, I saw the gap wasn’t coming down. Every time it’s an emotion I can’t describe.

“It’s a joy for me to win but also to give emotions to those close to me. This is really a special win for me.”

03:20 PM

Froome rides towards the finishing line

Following that quite horrible crash in the finale to the stage, Chris Froome managed to get back on his bike and is currently riding towards the line up this short final climb. He looks a bit bashed and bruised and we will have to wait to see what the doctors and his team say later. I have no idea if he will be able to continue when the Tour continues tomorrow, likewise I have no information just yet if there were any serious injuries. However, with so many riders going down at such speed I would imagine there will be a few riders that will not be getting back on their bikes on Sunday.

03:13 PM

Alaphilippe wins stage one at the Tour de France!

Julian Alaphilippe (Deceuninck-Quick Step) does it in style. The workd champion has won stage one at the Tour to take the leader’s yellow jersey! Michael Matthews (BikeExchange) follows a few seconds later, while Primoz Roglic (Jumbo-Visma) is third.

The Frenchman who will, no doubt, be sending his compatriots into overdrive with excitement also leads the points classification after taking 50 points on the line for the stage win, while Ide Schelling tops the mountains classification. Defending champion Tadej Pogacar, meanwhile, will start Sunday’s stage in the white jersey as best young rider and Jumbo-Visma lead the team classification.

03:12 PM

1km to go

The world champion goes beneath the flamme rouge alone, but can he hold on to take the stage and the first maillot jaune at this year’s Tour?

03:11 PM

1.5km to go

Mathieu van der Poel is starting to chase, but is third on the road behind Pierre Latour (TotalÉnergies). Julian Alaphilippe is shaking his head, perhaps in disbelief at how the world champion has just blown this stage apart.

03:10 PM

2km to go

Julian Alaphilippe sets off all on his own. The world champion is going on a long one. Pierre Latour, a former winner of the young rider classification here at the Tour, is in pursuit.

03:09 PM

2.5km to go

Julian Alaphilippe rides on second wheel behind team-mate Dries Devenyns, just ahead of Wout van Aert who is glued to his wheel like a well held tubular on an old steel rim.

03:08 PM

3km to go

Deceuninck-Quick Step lead the way onto the final climb of the day, the côte de la Fosse aux Loups.

03:07 PM

Froome is hobbling . . .

. . .and it does not look good for the four-time Tour winner.

Chris Froome  - APChris Froome  - AP

Chris Froome – AP

03:06 PM

5km to go

The race continues. Julian Alaphilippe and Van der Poel, Sonny Collbrelli and Wout van Aert are up at the pointy end of the stage.

03:05 PM

Massive crash.

Good grief. That is a massive crash and it does not look good.

A B&B Hotels p/b KTM rider, possibly Cyril Lemoine, went down causing a huge pile-up involving 30 or 40 riders, Chris Froome being one of them. It will take some time to assess the damage, but as I said at the start of the day some Tour dreams will end today and this may be where they were shattered. Absolutely heartbreaking stuff.

03:03 PM

8km to go

Jumbo-Visma are, for the first time today, riding on the front alongside Deceuninck-Quick Step, while Ineos Grenadiers are on the opposite side of the road drilling it. Mathieu van der Poel is tucked in just behind Ineos.

03:01 PM

10km to go

Our friends at Eurosport are reporting that Tao Geoghegan Hart has lost contact with the leading group, but I’m not too sure about that – difficult for me to say right now. If true, however, that is a little worrying.

02:56 PM

15km to go

Alpecin-Fenix, Movistar, Deceuninck-Quick Step and Ineos Grenadiers are all up near the front of the peloton. Breton rider David Gaudu is also up there, as while UAE Team Emirates and Jumbo-Visma are tucked in just behind. If you read from the beginning of the blog today then you will remember that I said positioning is key to winning today’s stage and so all of these riders and their teams will be battling for every inch of asphalt.

02:51 PM

18km to go

Benoît Cosnefroy (Ag2r-Citroën), another rider who probably wishes he hadn’t been added to my fantasy Tour de France team, has just taken a second bike change. The Frenchman is labouring off the back of the peloton so, one suspects, he will not be challenging for the line honours today.

02:43 PM

25km to go

It feels very much like that crash has sucked a little bit of the life out of the stage today, with several rider losing contact with the leading pack. However, with a yellow jersey up for grabs you can be sure these rider will be more than up for the fight. Mathieu van der Poel is up near the front alongside a handful of Alpecin-Fenix team-mates, while Julian Alaphilippe has a whole army of Deceuninck-Quick Step footsoldiers shepherding him towards the business point of today’s stage.

02:36 PM

All back as one – 27.5km to go

Ide Schelling ha been caught by the peloton.

02:30 PM

35km to go

Following a few kilometres of ‘neutral’ riding – the riders themselves decided to ease off the pace, rather then race officials neutralising affairs out on the road – racing has resumed. A few riders have been dropping back to the medical car for treatment, while at the other end of the race Ide Schelling still leads by a shade over a minute. Deceuninck-Quick Step, meanwhile, are back on the front of the bunch protecting world champion Julian Alaphilippe. Peter Sagan is up there too, with team-mate Daniel Oss for company. Wout van Aert is powering through the cars, suggesting the Belgian national champion was involved somehow.

02:25 PM

Sütterlin abandons!

Jasha Sütterlin (DSM), the 28-year-old German who was making his second appearance at the Tour, becomes the first rider to abandon after he was caught up in that crash a few minutes ago.

02:19 PM

40km to go

Deceuninck-Quick Step, Ineos Grenadiers and a handful of Groupama-FDJ riders rae on the frpont now, but have slowed down while they wait for those caught up in or behind that crash to chase back on. Still not much information on who went down, but any bumps and bruises that were picked up by those that went down will take a afew days to recover, so not a great start to the Tour. There is some good news, though. Tony Martin is back on his bike. He has blood pouring down his left arm, but at least he is back in the saddle.

02:13 PM

Massive crash in the bunch!

Tony Martin (Jumbo-Visma) went down after the German time trial champion clipped a sign being held up by a roadside spectator.

A whole posse of riders rode into the back of him. It may take some time to assess the damage that has been done here. Around 20 or 30 riders have been involved in this crash. Worrying.

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crash

02:09 PM

47km to go

Just under 50 kilometres of today’s stage to go and Ide Schelling, who is making his Tour debut here today, has crested the summit of the penultimate categorised climb of the day, the category four côte de Saint-Rivoal where he can add another point to his tally which would make him the virtual leader in the mountains classification. There are two points up for grabs on the finish line – atop the category three Côte de la Fosse aux Loups – though it would need Anthony Perez to win the stage to topple Schelling, and that’s not going to happen.

02:02 PM

Intermediate sprint results and details

01:50 PM

60km to go

Schelling takes maximum points at the intermediate sprint around 1min 30sec before Caleb Ewan won from the following bunch ahead of Peter Sagan. Ewan doesn’t ordinarily challenge for the points at the intermediate, so the =fact that he did may mean he’s not too confident at challenging for the stage later today. Which makes sense now that I’ve heard Marianne Vos, who competed in the women’s race earlier, said the final climb resembled the Mur de Huy!

01:43 PM

65km to go

The breakaway’s day is done, and with the intermediate sprint incoming a number of teams with sprinters in have shuffled themselves to the front of the pack. Will be interesting to see who contests the points on offer, it should give us an indication as to who is targeting the green jersey and the sort of form the sprinters have.

01:34 PM

70km to go

As expected, Ide Schelling added to his tally in the mountains classification around 10km back, taking the only point up for grabs on the summit of the category four côte de Stang ar Garront.

Not only has Schelling climbed the côte de Stang ar Garront, but also up to second in the virtual mountains and the way he is riding is on course to taking the first polka dot jersey in this year’s Tour. As it stands Schelling leads the stage by 2min 23sec, the peloton another 20sec or so back.

01:19 PM

Attaquer! Schelling his breakaway companions

Ide Schelling clipped off the front of the breakaway a few minutes ago, at the precise time Aurélien Paret-Peintre and Casper Pedersen crashed, the flying Dutchman presumably eyeing the point available atop the next climb, the category four Côte de Stang ar Garront.

Ide SchellingIde Schelling

Ide Schelling

01:17 PM

Crash in the bunch!

Aurélien Paret-Peintre (Ag2r-Citroën) and Casper Pedersen (DSM) hit the dack after what looked like a slight touching of wheels in the bunch. Paret-Peintre, an outsider for the stage win today, looked a little sore as was in no rush to get back to his feet. In stark contrast to Paret-Peintre, Pedersen wasted little time in bouncing back up.

01:13 PM

85km to go

But Julian Alaphilippe and Mathieu van der Poel are not the only ones who could be celebrating later on this afternoon. The aforementioned Wout van Aert, Sonny Colbrelli, Peter Sagan, Caleb Ewan, Arnaud Démare could also challenge if a big group goes to the line. But there are another two riders I’ve not mentioned for the stage win: Tadej Pogacar or Primoz Roglic could also do well, but do they want the added pressure of wearing yellow from day one?

Tour de France 2021, stage one – live updates - APTour de France 2021, stage one – live updates - AP

Tour de France 2021, stage one – live updates – AP

01:09 PM

90km to go

No change on the front of the peloton, with the diesel that is Tim Declercq sat on the front – as is the big Belgian’s wont – ahead of Petr Vakoc towing the group along. The very fact that this pair are doing so much work would suggest they are expecting, or hoping at least, to set up Julian Alaphilippe and Mathieu van der Poel here today. Both are perfectly suited to this stage, and both will be desperate to take to first maillot jaune up for grabs today.

12:53 PM

100km to go

And the breakaway leads by a shade below two minutes.

Breakaway - Tour de France 2021, stage one – live updates - GETTY IMAGESBreakaway - Tour de France 2021, stage one – live updates - GETTY IMAGES

Breakaway – Tour de France 2021, stage one – live updates – GETTY IMAGES

12:52 PM

You’ve been framed . . .

Some great pictures have been dropping from Brittany.

Tim Declercq and Petr Vakoc - Tour de France 2021, stage one – live updates - EPATim Declercq and Petr Vakoc - Tour de France 2021, stage one – live updates - EPA

Tim Declercq and Petr Vakoc – Tour de France 2021, stage one – live updates – EPA

Tao Geoghegan Hart - Tour de France 2021, stage one – live updates - EPATao Geoghegan Hart - Tour de France 2021, stage one – live updates - EPA

Tao Geoghegan Hart – Tour de France 2021, stage one – live updates – EPA

The peloton passes Locronan - Tour de France 2021, stage one – live updates -  REUTERSThe peloton passes Locronan - Tour de France 2021, stage one – live updates -  REUTERS

The peloton passes Locronan – Tour de France 2021, stage one – live updates – REUTERS

Up down - Tour de France 2021, stage one – live updates - GETTY IMAGESUp down - Tour de France 2021, stage one – live updates - GETTY IMAGES

Up down – Tour de France 2021, stage one – live updates – GETTY IMAGES

Peloton - Tour de France 2021, stage one – live updates - REUTERSPeloton - Tour de France 2021, stage one – live updates - REUTERS

Peloton – Tour de France 2021, stage one – live updates – REUTERS

12:30 PM

Perez become early leader in the ‘mountains’

The first three climbs of the day, the côte de Trébéolin, côte de Rosnoën and côte de Locronan, have all been crested. Victor Campenaerts, the popular Belgian in the recently renamed Qhubeka-NextHash team, clipped off the front of the bunch earlier in the stage to open his tally with a single point atop the côte de Trébéolin before Danny van Poppel took a point on the Rosnoën. However, Anthony Perez is the virtual leader in the mountains classification after he crested the category three côte de Locronan ahead of Ide Schelling where there were two points available.

12:15 PM

Early warning

Julien Bernard (Trek-Segafredo), the Frenchman who was cursed from the offset after being selected in my fantasy Tour de France team, hit the deck a few moments ago, but thankfully he didn’t waste too much time at getting back up and into the saddle. On what is a tricky and testing day that will come as a big reminder for the rest of the peloton. Pay attention lads, nobody wants to crash out of the Tour de France before the first stage is done.

12:00 PM

As it stands . . .

Well the Tour de France is underway and, under some slight cloud cover, a six-man breakaway comprising Franck Bonnamour (B&B Hotels p/b KTM), Danny van Poppel (Intermarché-Wanty-Gobert Matériaux), Anthony Perez (Cofidis), Cristián Rodríguez (TotalÉnergies), Ide Schelling (Bora-Hansgrohe) and Connor Swift (Arkéa-Samsic) lead the way, holding an advantage of 2min 30sec.

Not too much to report, but it looks like Alpecin-Fenix and Deceuninck-Quick Step – Petr Vakoc and Tim Declercq respectively – are looking to control the stage, each has a rider sat on the front of the peloton, while that ridiculously strong-looking team is sat behind protecting their leader, or team leaders.

11:40 AM

Vollering strikes to land La Course

Earlier this morning, Demi Vollering took victory in La Course by Le Tour de France as she rounded former world champion Marianne Vos on the line in Landerneau.

Demi Vollering - GETTY IMAGESDemi Vollering - GETTY IMAGES

Demi Vollering – GETTY IMAGES

Vollering’s SD Worx team played their cards well as Anna van der Breggen set up the win for her team-mate in a repeat of Liège-Bastogne-Liège, leading a select group to the top of the finishing climb.

Though Vos was the first to come off her fellow Dutchwoman’s wheel, Vollering had the power to come past, as did Cecilie Uttrup Ludwig as she snatched second place at the end of the 107-kilometre race from Brest.

Lizzie Deignan, who began the day as the defending champion, had to settle for ninth place after being distanced on the last of four ascents of the côte de la Fosse aux Loups, coming home in a group four seconds behind the leaders.

But the champagne went to SD Worx, with Vollering owing Van der Breggen a big debt of gratitude for the way she set it up.

The world champion, 31, plans to retire at the end of the season and become a sports director but was effectively already doing the job for her 24-year-old team-mate in the finale, rolling home in fourth with a big grin on her face.

“I was not expecting that from today,” Vollering said. “It was an awesome race. “She [Van der Breggen] did it again. It almost went wrong because Vos was going all the way to the right and I was a little bit stuck but Anna made the speed to force Marianne to go and I could go into Marianne’s slipstream and come over her which was really cool.

“It gives me much confidence for the future.”

What stands to be the final edition of La Course, set to be replaced by an eight-day Tour de France Femmes from next summer, took the peloton the short distance from Brest to Landerneau.

There they tackled four laps of a circuit characterised by the finishing climb, three kilometres at a gradient 5.7 per cent but including ramps reaching 14 per cent.

Deignan had stuck to Van der Breggen’s wheel for much of the race but could not hang with the leaders the last time up the climb as Tiffany Cromwell began the attacks.

“Today was just a bad day from the start to the finish,” Deignan said. “I felt terrible so I knew I didn’t have the finish like the girls in front. I knew the form was there but today was just such a bad day I couldn’t suffer enough to be there, it was frustrating.”

With three Dutchwomen in the top four despite the absence of WorldTour leader Annemiek van Vleuten, it was also an ominous sign for Deignan and anybody else heading into the Olympic road race next month. PA

07:40 AM

So, what’s on today’s menu?

With its sawtooth profile today’s 197.8km jaunt through Brittany, the heartland of French cycling, is a brutish way to get the race under way. Although it’s a cliché, I may as well get it out of the way now rather than hold it back for later in the race – who knows, maybe I can recycle it?: the Tour cannot be won today, but it may be lost.

Stage one of the Tour de France - ASOStage one of the Tour de France - ASO

Stage one of the Tour de France – ASO

Featuring six categoriesd climbs – the côte de Trébéolin, côte de Rosnoën, côte de Locronan, côte de Stang ar Garront, côte de Saint-Rivoal and côte de la Fosse aux Loups – and around 3,000 metres of vertical elevation, today is perfect terrain for the puncheurs.

However, with a handful of points up for grabs in the mountains classification, a few will fancy their chances of getting into a breakaway knowing that there is a polka dot jersey up for grabs.

With the constant ups and downs, twists and turns and potential for wind and rain blowing in from the Atlantic, today will be as much of a test of nerves as the legs. The opening week of the Tour is often a nervy affair, and this year will be no different. Positioning, too, will be absolutely key – for both those eyeing the stage win and the general classification contenders. With the three kilometre rule not being in place today, any riders that are caught up behind any crashes could lose vital seconds that could make all the difference one the race rolls down the Champs-Élysées in Paris in three weeks.

The finale will be a particularly stressful point in the race, particularly given that it may suit a varied type of rider, though generally one that can pack a punch on a short climb.

stage onestage one

stage one

The favourite is Mathieu van der Poel (Alpecin-Fenix) who, as mentioned earlier, is making his Tour debut today and if he wins the stage will do what his late grandfather Raymond Poulidor never managed: wear the leader’s yellow jersey at the Tour. Anybody that does not in some way want this to happen must have a heart of stone. It was a nice touch from Alpecin-Fenix at the team presentation on Thursday when they paid homage to ‘Pou-Pou’ with a change of kit to match the Mercier jersey worn by Poulidor in the 1960s and 70s.

And where there’s a stage suited for Van der Poel,you can bet your last penny that the Dutchman’s long-standing rival Wout van Aert (Jumbo-Visma) will not be far behind. Another rider that will fancy his chances – both today and on Sunday’s harder finale – is world champion Julian Alaphilippe (Deceuninck-Quick Step).

Beside the most natural puncheurs, there are also a group of sprinters that can climb, and so the recently crowned Italian nation champion Sonny Colbrelli (Bahrain Victorious) may be getting involved in the action, while Peter Sagan (Bora-Hansgrohe), Caleb Ewan (Lotto-Soudal) and Arnaud Démare (Groupama-FDJ) could, possibly, get in the mix. There are a handful of others that could, depending on how the stage plays out, challenges for the first yellow jersey at this year’s race but more on them upon my return – at 1pm.

04:15 AM

Bonjour!

Hello and welcome to our live rolling blog from stage one at the Tour de France, the 197.8-kilometre run from Brest to Landerneau.

So here we are, just hours away from the opening stage of the 108th edition of the world’s biggest bike race which is, thankfully, back in its usual summertime slot – give or take a week thanks to the rescheduled Olympics – after last year’s slight shuffling of the bicycle racing pack. And what a pack of riders we have at this year’s race.

From general classification riders through to sprinters, rouleurs and baroudeurs, the 184-man peloton that will pass though KMO – the official point at which racing starts after riding the neutralised section out from the centre of Brest – at 11.30am (BST) comprises, in theory, the best riders there are in the world right now.

While Egan Bernal, the Ineos Grenadiers rider who is currently back home in Colombia after winning last month’s Giro d’Italia, may not be at the Tour, the starting list features more than enough talent to make this year’s big loop – la grande boucle – entertaining. Indeed, with so many unknowns going into the three-week race it could, fingers crossed, turn into a modern-day classic. Let’s hope so.

Tadej Pogacar - Tour de France: Favourites, form and who are we predicting will win? - REUTERS Tadej Pogacar - Tour de France: Favourites, form and who are we predicting will win? - REUTERS 

Tadej Pogacar – Tour de France: Favourites, form and who are we predicting will win? – REUTERS

Defending champion Tadej Pogacar (UAE Team Emirates) is one of 10 former grand tour winners at this year’s race, the Slovenian returning with a slightly stronger team than last year.

Like compatriot Primoz Roglic (Jumbo-Visma), Pogacar’s build-up to the Tour has not been one that follows a traditional programme. Indeed, after winning his first monument at Liège-Bastogne-Liège on April 25, Pogacar did not race again until June 9 when he opened his successful assault on the Tour of Slovenia, followed by two more race days at his national championships. Prior to his break, however, the 22-year-old showed enough form across all terrain to prove why he is one of the strongest general classification riders in the world right now. Stage wins and the general classification at the UAE Tour and Tirreno-Adriatico, followed by another stage win at Itzulia Basque Country, and the aforementioned monument – when he became the first reigning Tour champion to win Liège-Bastogne-Liège since Bernard Hinault in 1980 – may give some indication as to why Pogacar is many people’s favourite to win again in Paris.

If Pogacar’s preparation for the Tour was considered a little unconventional, then Roglic may be one of modern-day cycling’s true mavericks. Having started his season late – at Paris-Nice back in March – and cutting it short after Liège-Bastogne-Liège, Roglic has raced only 17 days in 2021, putting just 2,639 of racing kilometres into his legs. By way of some comparison, of the riders at this year’s Tour only team-mates Mike Teunissen (2,005) and Tony Martin (2,574) have raced fewer kilometres, while Bauke Mollema (Trek-Segafredo) has done more than any other, arriving with 7,389 in his legs over 46 days. One suspects Mollema, who finished 28th at the Giro, will not be threatening the general classification in Paris.

While Roglic’s form is unknown, we do know the 31-year-old has a history of returning from altitude camps in flying form and so he cannot – must not – be underestimated. Prior to his going into hiding, Roglic chalked up three stage wins at Paris-Nice, and the individual time trial and overall at Itzulia Basque Country. Despite a final-day unravelling at Paris-Nice when he lost the leader’s yellow jersey – a recurring theme for Roglic while racing on French roads – the displays of explosivity he produced in March and through to the Ardennes classics in late April, where he finished second to Julian Alaphilippe at La Flèche Wallonne, were a sight to behold.

Primoz Roglic - Tour de France: Favourites, form and who are we predicting will win? - GETTY IMAGESPrimoz Roglic - Tour de France: Favourites, form and who are we predicting will win? - GETTY IMAGES

Primoz Roglic – Tour de France: Favourites, form and who are we predicting will win? – GETTY IMAGES

There are question marks, however, over the strength and form of Roglic’s team-mates. While last year Jumbo-Visma arrived with undoubtedly the strongest all-round team, there is no Tom Dumoulin this time round while Sepp Kuss, the once imperious-looking young American, has at times this season looked human. Jonas Vingegaard, the impressive young Dane, meanwhile, makes his grand tour debut alongside a trio of experienced Dutchmen – Robert Gesink, Steven Kruijswijk and Mike Teunissen – while Tony Martin, who last week won a 10th – tenth! – German time trial title.

Wout van Aert – Tour de France: Favourites, form and who are we predicting will win? - GETTY IMAGESWout van Aert – Tour de France: Favourites, form and who are we predicting will win? - GETTY IMAGES

Wout van Aert – Tour de France: Favourites, form and who are we predicting will win? – GETTY IMAGES

The biggest concern over Roglic’s support crew, though, surrounded the form of Wout van Aert who until last week had not raced since pipping Tom Pidcock to win the Amstel Gold Race on April 18. Having undergone surgery for appendicitis Van Aert skipped the Critérium du Dauphiné and it had been reported he would also miss the Belgian championships. However, after beating a strong field in Waregem last Sunday to win his first national road title, one suspects Van Aert will be strong enough to not only play a support role for Roglic, but also resume his long-standing rivalry with Mathieu van der Poel (Alpecin-Fenix) while also pursuing his own personal goals.

And so to Ineos Grenadiers who may not have the best individual rider at this year’s race, but certainly appear to have the strongest team. Featuring three former grand tour winners – Geraint Thomas (Tour, 2018), Richard Carapaz (Giro, 2019) and Tao Geoghegan Hart (Giro, 2020) – along with Richie Porte, who was third at last year’s Tour and won this month’s Critérium du Dauphiné, the British squad is blessed with an embarrassment of riches. Or as one wag commented earlier this week, an ’embarrassment of Richies’.

Tao Geoghegan Hart and Richard Carapaz – Tour de France: Favourites, form and who are we predicting will win? - REUTERSTao Geoghegan Hart and Richard Carapaz – Tour de France: Favourites, form and who are we predicting will win? - REUTERS

Tao Geoghegan Hart and Richard Carapaz – Tour de France: Favourites, form and who are we predicting will win? – REUTERS

After refusing to name a designated leader, at least not publicly, much of the chatter has surrounded how Ineos Grenadiers will approach the race. In an interview with S4C, the Welsh television channel that will be broadcasting every stage live while also showing nightly highlights – details and timings here – Thomas explains.

“I’m going to try and get the best result possible, and try and win it,” Thomas says. “The way I’ve treated it is to get here in the best shape I can, and I feel I’ve done that. Winning in 2018 was unbelievable, the highlight of my career by far. It wasn’t quite on a par, but I was still hugely satisfied with coming second the year after. My life was so bonkers after winning the Tour, like a six month party afterwards really, so to then get back into good enough shape to finish second and only lose to a team-mate – 2019 was also an amazing feeling.

Geraint Thomas - Tour de France: Favourites, form and who are we predicting will win? - APGeraint Thomas - Tour de France: Favourites, form and who are we predicting will win? - AP

Geraint Thomas – Tour de France: Favourites, form and who are we predicting will win? – AP

“This is going to be my 11th Tour now and I’ve had plenty of ups and downs along the way. Obviously in 2017, I wore the yellow jersey for five days and then crashed out with a broken collarbone, so there has been up and downs, but it’s the best bike race in the world and the one you dream about being a part of, so it’s great to be here again.

“It’s a strong team”, adds Thomas. “We’ve got three guys who have won a grand tour and obviously Richie Porte, who was third in the Tour last year, so we’ve certainly got some strong guys.

“Obviously, there will be some sort of pecking order, but at the same time it’s good to have those options and those cards to play, because as long as we ride together and communicate really well, that’s key.

“I think the way the Giro went for the team last year, I was the sole leader there and I crashed out on the third day so they had to change the mindset of how they raced, and it was a really successful Giro for them, and we ended up winning with Tao and winning six stages, so they didn’t miss me too much! But after that, we thought let’s keep that mindset and philosophy going.

“We all know the Tour is three weeks of hard racing, it’s not like we can go out all guns blazing in the first week and doing all this crazy stuff because but the third week we’ll all be on our knees. But it’s nice to have a bit more freedom, a bit more spontaneity in the team.

“For sure I’d love to win it again, but if I can’t and a team-mate can, then I will 100 per cent get behind them.”

Whatever the approach of Ineos Grenadiers, one thing is almost certain: they should, along with UAE Team Emirates and Jumbo-Visma be challenging for the top honours at this year’s race which should, in theory, be a fascinating battle of will and wiliness on the long road – 3,414.4 kilometres, to be precise – to Paris.

But there are others that will be hoping to upset the odds and take home the fabled maillot jaune, the yellow jersey worn by the race leader. With numerous downhill finishes, it is a course that is perfectly suited to Julian Alaphilippe (Deceuninck-Quick Step) who is also a decent time trialist, but does the Frenchman have a strong enough team to target the general classification? While the romantics would love an Alaphilippe ​win, or at least a full blown challenge, I’m thinking he may be better suited to targeting stages.

Julian Alaphilippe - Tour de France: Favourites, form and who are we predicting will win? - GETTY IMAGESJulian Alaphilippe - Tour de France: Favourites, form and who are we predicting will win? - GETTY IMAGES

Julian Alaphilippe – Tour de France: Favourites, form and who are we predicting will win? – GETTY IMAGES

Rigoberto Urán (EF Education-Nippo), runner-up to Chris Froome in 2017, arrives in fine shape and impressed at this month’s Tour de Suisse where the Colombian won the hilly time trial. A definite dark horse who will be sniffing around for a podium place. David Gaudu (Groupama-FDJ), Enric Mas (Movistar) and Nairo Quintana (Arkéa-Samsic) have all been mentioned as potential winners, but all fall short in one area or another to launch a credible assault on the Tour.

So, who is going to win the Tour? It is certainly a tight one to call and, in all honestly, I could have chosen the winner by the flip of a coin: Roglic or Pogacar? In the end I plumped for the older rider, while I feel the downhill finishes and high altitude summit finishes may suit the Ecuadorian Carapaz a little more than his Ineos Grenadiers team-mates. Again, though, it is so close to call and you could ask again tomorrow and that trio could easily be rearranged to also include Thomas, Urán, Geoghegan Hart or even Porte.

Away from those targeting the general classification, there should be plenty of interest and intrigue to keep the show rolling along. Can Van der Poel, who is making his Tour debut, take the yellow jersey in the opening week to honour his late grandfather the great Raymond Poulidor who was nicknamed the ‘Eternal Second’? Despite having won seven stages between 1962 and 1974, Poulidor who died in November 2019 never had the honour of wearing the maillot jaune.

The return of Mark Cavendish (Deceuninck-Quick Step) for the first time since 2018 should make the sprint stages very interesting. But can he roll things back and win a 31st stage 13 years after his first in 2008 when he triumphed in the rain in Châteauroux where, coincidentally, stage six finishes? I wouldn’t bet against it.

And then there’s the battle for the points classification: can Peter Sagan (Bora-Hansgrohe) win an incredible eighth green jersey, or will Caleb Ewan (Lotto-Soudal), Arnaud Démare (Groupama-FDJ) or Sonny Colbrelli (Bahrain Victorious) fancy a crack?

We don’t know the answers just yet, but stick with us here at Telegraph Sport and over the next three weeks we will talk you through almost every pedal stroke of the world’s biggest bike race.

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