JETS (0-0) at Carolina Panthers (0-0)
Sunday, 1 p.m.
Spread: Panthers -5
As much as both parties would like to avoid this storyline, this game really is going to be viewed as Sam Darnold vs. Zach Wilson. It’s also not a very fair fight. As promising as Wilson is, as much as everyone seems to think he’ll be better than Darnold eventually, it’s asking a lot from him to be better on Day 1.
It could happen, of course. But the odds favor the old man – the 24-year-old Darnold – for a reason. Not only has he theoretically passed his growing pains, but right now he’s the one on the more advanced team. They’re in Year 2 of the Matt Rhule rebuilding project in Charlotte, and they’re expecting a big boost from the healthy return of Christian McCaffrey, maybe the most dynamic weapon in the league.
Add in receivers like Robby Anderson and D.J. Moore and it’s really a lot for the Jets’ defense to deal with. Remember, the Jets are going with an extraordinarily young secondary and they lost a key piece of the pass rush that was supposed to protect them when Carl Lawson was lost for the season. That pass rush actually could’ve been a huge advantage for the Jets against a questionable Panthers offensive line. But without Lawson, it’s not clear where that rush will be coming from this year.
In other words, the Jets’ defense was already going to be a work in progress. With no Lawson and at least five starters who are first- or second-year players, it could really take a while for them all to figure it out.
So if the Panthers are going to score — and they should have little trouble doing so — that’s going to put more on the young shoulders of Wilson. The good news is he’s got some pretty good weapons, including an impressive receiving corps that features Corey Davis, Keelan Cole, and electric rookie Elijah Moore. They have what they think will be a good offensive line and a strong rushing attack, too.
But a rookie quarterback in his first start, on the road against a team playing in front of a full house for the first time since 2019? It’s a recipe for mistakes, or a call for making the offense as conservative as possible. Either way, that’s not a good thing in a game against an offense that clearly has explosive capabilities.
Basically, the Jets are hoping that their defense is better than expected, that Darnold looks as mistake-prone as he once was in New York, or that Wilson suddenly looks like a finished product. All of that is reasonable, but probably not likely. The Jets are incredibly young, and it’s probably too much to ask for them to go on the road and beat a veteran team right out of the gate.
I think Wilson is going to surprise some people, even early in the season. I just don’t think that in Week 1 that will be enough.
Pick: Take the Panthers, giving the points.
Prediction: Panthers 27, Jets 21
My record straight up: 0-0
My record against the spread: 0-0