Astros manager Dusty Baker’s professional baseball odyssey began 54 years ago when he was selected in the 1967 draft. One year later, he made his MLB debut as a player, and when his playing days came to an end, the Giants made him their manager in 1993.
Baker is still combing the baseball desert in search of his first World Series ring as a manager. To keep the dream alive on Tuesday night, he’ll hitch his wagon to rookie Luis Garcia, who made his MLB debut in 2020 and was not born when Baker managed his first game in the big leagues.
When asked about his pitching plans for a game that could deliver him to the doorstep of history, Baker laid out his thinking like he was ordering lunch, showing no discernible concern or even a slight spike in heart rate.
“Probably Garcia,” Baker said walking off the field after Game 5. “We were trying to save [Jose] Urquidy but we went to Urquidy because we were trying to get a few innings out of him.”
As with many plans at this point of the year, that didn’t work out the way the manager envisioned. Urquidy gave the Astros one strong inning, but it was just that, one inning. His usage led to obvious speculation that the 26-year-old would return to the mound for Game 6 on Tuesday, especially given the off day in between games and the lighter workload that has become expected of modern starters anyway. But with Baker willing to identify Garcia by name as his Game 6 guy, he also created fuel for the looking-ahead fire.
Managers lean on two tropes when it comes to pitching rotations in the postseason. One is the “all hands on deck” line that has led, in recent years, to starting pitchers Julio Urias, Patrick Corbin, Chris Sale and Charlie Morton coming out of the bullpen to secure ring-clinching victories. The other line that gets copied and pasted from one manager’s mouth to another’s each October is “we’re only thinking about today’s game.” Managers never want to let on that they’re thinking about the next game or the next series, even if a win in the game they claim to be solely focused on inherently forces them to think about the next task.
Baker’s comments after Game 5 were a fun and somewhat surprising counter example. The no-hesitation statement about Garcia meant Baker was undoubtedly thinking about Game 6 as Game 5 was still happening. It was a refreshing departure from the typical “I’m not worried about that yet” answer that many have come to expect (and that FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal set up with his question). Baker also avoided saying “all hands are on deck,” which again suggests that he has an eye on a game that, at least right now, exists just hypothetically.
The Astros need to win Garcia’s start to have a Game 7. Traditional thinking would be that any pitcher with a working arm is in play to get a few outs on Tuesday. Baker, however, has zigged where so many have zagged, at least in the form of public comments. Reading between the lines indicates that Game 6 is Garcia’s and Game 7, should we get that far, is Urquidy’s. Both will be on short leashes, but at the very least they are going to get their chance to walk around the block. For all the handwringing about starting pitchers meeting the same fate as the dodo bird or VHS tapes, we’re going to get a World Series Game 6 — and potential Game 7 — with standard starters, at least as standard as 2021 thinking will allow.
The other wrinkle here lies in two Houston pitchers with over 11 times as many combined regular season starts as Garcia and Urquidy. Zack Greinke (488) and Jake Odorizzi (215) have taken the bump for an MLB start 703 times. Each has postseason experience as well, though Greinke’s dwarfs Odorizzi’s. Still, it doesn’t appear to be enough for their skipper to hand them the ball over a pair of guys born during the Clinton administration.
With Baker saying he initially wanted Urquidy for Game 6, it follows that he would take Game 7, unless of course he handles a slice of relief in Game 6. But, that concern about him making a start two days after throwing one (yes, one) inning leads us to believe Urquidy will be chained to the bench for all of Game 6. That means Greinke and Odorizzi are in the long relief seat.
There is perhaps no one more overqualified for that position than Greinke, whose big-league career is old enough to vote. The likely Hall of Famer leads all active pitchers in innings pitched, starts and batters faced. He was Houston’s Game 7 starter last time they progressed that far. But after posting a 4.16 ERA in 2021, tying his career-high in WHIP, and seeing his strikeout rate fall below 20% for the first time since 2010, Greinke very plainly does not have the same juice he once did.
His postseason, thus far, has been more memorable for what he’s done at the plate than for what he’s done on the mound. With two clean, solid base hits (one of which made him the only American League pitcher in World Series history to record a pinch hit), Greinke has made an unironic case for more at-bats.
What he and Odorizzi do as pitchers the rest of the way is up to Baker. This is a monumental decision, as there are potentially only 54 outs left in this series.
The Astros are relying on Garcia, a rookie on short rest, and Urquidy, a man with 7.2 innings on his postseason odometer, to get a sizable chunk of them. Atlanta will throw two former top-seven draft picks.
If this postseason has put starting pitchers under the microscope, the petri dishes of Game 6 and 7 will be the most interesting experiments.