How do you properly evaluate a player who’s only had one year of regular playing time during a full season, but was one of the best hitters in the league during an abbreviated campaign?
That’s the problem the Yankees face with Luke Voit, who made 510 gainful plate appearances in 2019 and has made just 475 since then, albeit with the most powerful ones of his life coming during that stretch. Since whacking a league-leading 22 home runs in the pandemic summer of 2020, Voit has dealt with injuries (right knee surgery, oblique strain, bone bruise in left knee, right knee inflammation), prolonged slumps and the “frustrating” Anthony Rizzo acquisition that robbed him of more playing time.
In August, Voit went to bat for himself. Hours after hitting a home run that helped the Yankees sweep the Red Sox, Voit said “I was top 10 [in MVP voting] last year and I’ve been a great player for this organization for the last three years. I’m not going down. I want to play. Obviously, I know, it’s gonna be tough with Rizzo. But I deserve to play just as much as he does.”
That top-ten finish in MVP voting — Voit placed ninth in the 2020 race — is more indicative of a player who can put three solid months together than it is a consistent MVP candidate. Other players who finished in the top ten of award voting that year include Dinelson Lamet and Dylan Bundy, who have since been similarly felled by injuries or a case of the general struggles. While 2020 proved what those players can do, it’s not an accurate forecast of what they will do.
This leaves the Yankees at a crossroads. A Rizzo reunion does not seem likely. The 32-year-old is a free agent who, while providing a resuscitating spark early in his Yankee tenure, didn’t exactly set the world on fire. With Freddie Freeman still on the free agent market and Matt Olson marooned in Oakland until the A’s finally trade him, there are avenues for the Yankees to follow elsewhere. If they nab Freeman, Olson, or some other outside option, Voit once again finds himself in the bench role that he openly complained about. A designated hitter role is also unlikely with Aaron Judge, Joey Gallo and a healed Aaron Hicks slated for the outfield spots, planting Giancarlo Stanton’s flag in the DH soil.
No professional athlete wants to come off the bench, especially one who led the league in a major statistical category very recently. But the reality is that the Yankees can’t trust Voit right now, either to stay healthy or to replicate his 2020 production over a full season. The Yankees really haven’t had any stability at first base since Mark Teixeira retired, as they’ve auditioned Voit, Greg Bird, Neil Walker, Chris Carter and others to varying degrees of mediocrity.
While Voit has a point about deserving playing time — the only way to find out if he can catch the 2020 groove again is to get him on the dance floor — he stands a much better chance of finding that elsewhere. Add in the fact that he’s a zero on the base paths and less than zero on defense, and it both makes sense that the Yankees replaced him with Rizzo and might be looking for a permanent replacement on a multi-year deal.
But with three more years until he hits free agency, the Yankees would have to orchestrate a trade to get Voit off their hands. There are a handful of teams who either made the playoffs last year or were playoff-adjacent despite shameful numbers from their first basemen. Milwaukee and Cleveland spring to mind, and if Freeman really does shock the world and leave Atlanta in his rearview mirror, they’d become a logical trade partner for Voit. The highly-anticipated end of the lockout, whether that’s within the month or a much more depressing amount of time away, should also bring a universal DH. That opens up a portal of possibility that the league and its front offices have never seen before, while also potentially giving Voit some attention in National League cities like Philadelphia, San Diego and St. Louis, the organization that drafted him.
The other plan, while likely a Plan C to a trade or a bench role, is to play Voit at first base every day and hopes he proves his mettle. We don’t know how the Yankees’ internal metrics and evaluators rate Voit, but we do know that his average exit velocity, hard hit rate and slugging percentage are still above league average. That’s the value that Voit brings when healthy, but the Yankees already have that in spades from fellow right-handed bats Judge and Stanton.
Unfortunately for Voit, there’s always a but when analyzing his future. He had one spectacular season, but that comes with a thick caveat. He had a 126 wRC+ in 118 games during the 2019 season, but that was multiple injuries ago. He thinks he deserves to play as much as the next guy, but he also struck out in over 30% of his plate appearances last year.
Right now, first base in the Bronx is a problem looking for a solution. The only way out is through, and the paths all run through Luke Voit, who either has to firmly grasp the position or get ready to turn in his pinstripes for good.