The NFL playoffs arrive this weekend, and the Chiefs are exactly where they want to be.
At home.
They locked up the No. 1 seed in the AFC, albeit in unusual circumstances, which earned them the most important thing that comes with it — the first-round bye – even if it did not necessarily earn them all that comes with it.
But there’s another advantage, one less frequently acknowledged, that will soon apply: The No. 1 seed benefits from first-round upsets.
Let the chaos reign.
As the top seed, the Chiefs will have the privilege of playing the lowest remaining AFC seed in the Divisional Round at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium next weekend. Which leaves the possibility of four teams coming to Kansas City for a second-round date: Jacksonville, Los Angeles Chargers, Baltimore or Miami.
• If the seventh-seeded Dolphins upset the Bills, they’ll be the Chiefs’ opponent, regardless of the outcomes of the other two games.
• If the Bills win, though, and the sixth-seeded Ravens upset the Bengals in Cincinnati, it will be the Ravens in KC next weekend.
• If the Bills and Bengals hold serve at home — the most likely scenario, given both are double-digit favorites — the Chiefs will play the winner of the Chargers-Jaguars game, which takes place Saturday night in Jacksonville.
Let’s look at the potential matchups with each of the four teams. Think of it as something of a guide for who the Chiefs should want to play next week.
Note: I’ve ordered these by the likelihood of opponent, using the Vegas betting lines.
Los Angeles Chargers (10-7, AFC West wild card No. 5 seed)
It’s been a weird season for the Chargers — but, then again, is any Chargers season normal?
Justin Herbert didn’t have the break-into-the-upper-echelon season many anticipated, and that many includes me. But he did have the built-in excuse that follows the Chargers from year to year — injuries. He was often playing without wide receivers Mike Williams and Keenan Allen, and Williams’s status is in doubt against in Jacksonville after Brandon Staley inexplicably played his starters deep into the game in Denver last week.
The Chargers have taken one of the league’s best throwing arms and morphed into a horizontal passing team, which is a bit confounding. No team averages fewer air yards per pass attempt.
The concern is the defense is healthier than it has been in awhile, aided by Joey Bosa’s return, and it’s playing like it. The Chargers could make life hectic for Patrick Mahomes in the pocket and only need to bring four rushers to do it, which is the exact formula that has given the Chiefs trouble in their last two postseason exits.
If that becomes a problem, the Chiefs might have to run the ball more often than they’d like, particularly since the Chargers allowed a league-worst 5.42 yards per carry this season. The last time these two teams met, Isiah Pacheco had the only 100-yards game of his rookie season.
Among the four possibilities, this is the one you’d least like to see — unless things change in the health of the quarterbacks in Miami or Baltimore, which we’ll get to.
• Difficult rating: 7.5/10
Jacksonville Jaguars (9-8, AFC South champion, No. 4 seed)
The Jaguars won their final five games, but two of those came against the Titans, who dropped their final seven games; one came against the Texans; and another came against the Jets. They had the third easiest schedule in the NFL this year.
But give them credit — they took advantage of it, and their quarterback did in particular. The Chiefs would be facing a different Trevor Lawrence than the one they beat 27-17 in mid-November. Lawerence actually led the NFL in passer rating over the final 10 weeks of the regular season. Not exactly a small sample size.
The defense offers a real test of how-full-is-the-glass because the Jaguars’ front-four is quite stout, and the back-end is anything but. They were third in pressure rate, but they have to get home — or else. Their pass defense ranked 29th in DVOA, per Football Outsiders, and that’s not a weakness you want against an Andy Reid-coached team or Patrick Mahomes-quarterbacked team.
• Difficulty rating: 6.5/10
Baltimore Ravens (10-7, AFC North wild card, No. 6 seed)
We’ll have to open these next two breakdowns with qualifiers, because they are vastly different teams with or without their quarterbacks. And while all signs point toward Lamar Jackson sitting out Sunday in Cincinnati, that doesn’t mean he’d necessarily be done for the entirety of the playoffs.
Which means most — but not all — of this will be focused on the more predictable side of the ball in the defense. The defense has been really good as of late, by the way, but it can only do so much.
The Ravens are built to win the old-school way — stopping the run and successfully running the football. They led the NFL in rushes of 10-plus yards, and their offensive line is ranked second in both Pro Football Focus’ run-blocking and pass protection metrics. That’s not quite the scare it once was for the Chiefs, who allowed the eighth fewest rushing yards in football, but it’s still a concern — so long as Jackson is part of that rushing attack equation.
What would entice the Chiefs most about this potential matchup is their biggest strength would have the opportunity to directly match up with the Ravens’ biggest weakness. The Chiefs led the NFL in 20-plus yard passing plays (73), and Football Outsiders ranked the Ravens as the second-worst team in football in covering the deep part of the field.
• Difficulty rating with Jackson: 8/10; without Jackson: 4/10
Miami Dolphins (9-8, AFC East wild card, No. 7 seed)
See the opening paragraph in the Baltimore breakdown? Yeah, apply all of that here. The Dolphins with Tua Tagovailoa and without Tua Tagovailoa are stark contrasts. Tagovailoa will miss the game in Buffalo; he’s yet to clear concussion protocol.
The Dolphins were a really explosive offense with Tagovailoa in the lineup in 2022, but it would be a rather tough ask for rookie Skylar Thompson (pride of Fort Osage and then Kansas State) to knock out Buffalo and then come into his hometown of Kansas City and wipe out the Chiefs a week later.
Still, those wide receivers — and one in particular; you know the one — would be quite the playoff introduction for a Chiefs secondary that supplies snaps to four rookies. You’d have to think Tyreek Hill would be at his very best in a potential return to Kansas City, and Hill at his best as just about as good as they come. There’s a reason why Tagovailoa finished second to Mahomes in Sports Info Solutions’ expected points added metric. (He was only halfway to Mahomes’ total, by the way. It was a landslide.)
The Dolphins blitz a ton on defense, though slightly less since acquiring Bradley Chubb, so they’d have an interesting decision to make if they march into Arrowhead. Mahomes fares so well against extra rushers that teams don’t have the guts to try often. Without the blitz, though, the Dolphins have struggled to pressure the passer.
• Difficulty rating with Tagovailoa: 7.5/10; without Tagovailoa: 4/10