The NFL’s 102nd season begins this week with 32 teams jockeying for 12 playoff spots and ultimately a berth in the 56th Super Bowl on Feb. 13 in Los Angeles.
Last year, because of the pandemic, stadiums were empty or with very limited attendance allowed.
This year, though COVID surges anew because of the delta variant, the NFL plans to have full stadiums.
We are attempting to find the logic or sanity in that and will get back to you if we do.
This is our annual team rankings. We guarantee 100 percent numerical accuracy; the order will be 1 through 32 or your money back. We cannot, unfortunately, guarantee that the exact order of teams will be accurate.
Miami Dolphins fans should hope so, though. That is because I rank the Dolphins as a top-10 team. No, I did not have a concussion while assembling these rankings. Yes, I am willing to take a sobriety test if requested.
Our 2021 team rankings based on likelihood of raising the Vince Lombardi Trophy come February:
SUPER BOWL FAVORITES
1. Kansas City Chiefs (14-2 last regular season; 2-1 in playoffs): K.C. lost Super Bowl last season because Tampa Bay had Patrick Mahomes running for his life, pressuring him 29 times. Well, Chiefs made a revamped O-line an offseason priority and hit big, led by trade for top tackle Orlando Brown. Game changer. Mahomes with time makes for a nearly unstoppable offense, and the overshadowed D is above average, too.
2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (11-5; 4-0): True that NFL teams rarely win back-to-back Super Bowls. It’s hard. That’s quantifiable. It has happened only eight times in 55 years, and not for 16 seasons. Then again, the last to do it was one Tom Brady in 2004-05 with the Patriots. The Old G.O.A.T., a top defense and all 22 starters returning give Bucs a great shot to repeat. I know. K.C. and Tampa 1-2 … bor-ring … but these two are a cut above the rest.
3. Los Angeles Rams (10-6; 1-1): Revitalized Matthew Stafford is about to do what he seldom could in Detroit. Win. A lot. Now he has a team around him. With quality receivers and a top-notch defense led by three-time Defensive Player of the Year Aaron Donald. And Sony Michel trade helps the the ground game.
4. Green Bay Packers (13-3; 1-1): Let’s play “Jeopardy! “Sports for 200. This team’s fortunes turned around in 2021 when what disgruntled star quarterback finally agreed to re-sign for one more season?” Ding! “Who is Aaron Rodgers.” That is correct! Rodgers is the reigning league MVP, is great enough to overcome an average Pack defense, and figures to be supermotivated as he auditions for a megadeal elsewhere in ‘22.
5. Baltimore Ravens (11-5; 1-1): Cleveland gets the hype (again), but still like Crows atop a suddenly interesting, competitive AFC North. Team gifted Lamar Jackson with Sammy Watkins by trade and Rashod Bateman by draft to augment a big-time running game and stout defense.
6. Buffalo Bills (13-3; 2-1): Ascending dual-threat QB Josh Allen has Buffalo higher than this in most other rankings. I’m just playing a plain old hunch that Bills won’t match last year’s record. Buffs’ defense gave up the third-most points of the 14 playoff teams last year, lacking a solid pass rush. They need Canes rookie Gregory Rousseau (based on one impressive college season in 2019) to be the answer.
7. Cleveland Browns (11-5; 1-1): Baker Mayfield greatly reduced his turnover propensity last year but isn’t the most accurate arm out there. Browns’ roster has few holes, although cornerback play might be one on what was an average defense in 2020. Tough division in a tough conference.
8. Seattle Seahawks (12-4; 0-1): Russell Wilson throwing to D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett and handing off to Chris Carson. No matter anything else, Wilson and that balance on offense make the Hawks a Super Bowl contender, even coming out of the best division in football top to bottom.
9. San Francisco 49ers (6-10): Slotting Niners this high and with a Super Bowl shot relies on two rather large ifs: Will Jimmy Garoppolo silence his doubters while Trey Lance develops? And will Nick Bosa have the healthy bounce-back season so important to the D? Frans need both to survive in a very tough NFC West.
PLAYOFF CONTENDERS
10. MIAMI DOLPHINS (10-6): Your eyes have not deceived you. The Dolphins are a top-10 team. I’m all in on what coach Brian Flores is doing. I’m all in on Tua Tagovailoa in “Year 2ua” (patent pending). Miami was the best team to not make the playoffs last year and is poised to reach the postseason this time and maybe even bag the franchise’s first playoff win since 2000. Fins are solid on both sides of the line, one of the only nine teams with a plus-rating on both offense and defense in ESPN’s Football Power Index. Dolphins also play nine of 17 games at home and have NFL’s fifth-easiest schedule based on combined opponent records from last year. The defense ranked fifth in fewest points allowed and led league in takeaways last season and looks strong again. But the big leap should be with Tua and the offense. The O-line is young but looked pretty stout in the preseason. There is no elite running back, but Myles Gaskin and Malcolm Brown show signs of being a productive duo. Mostly, though, I see Miami as top 10 because I believe Tagovailoa will flourish in the new offense geared to giving him open targets quickly and capitalizing on his accuracy. And in DeVante Parker, Mike Gesicki and now free agent Will Fuller and top draft pick Jaylen Waddle, Tua’s top targets are as good a foursome as most anybody in the league. This Dolphins’ rebuild was always about sustained winning. It has begun.
11. New Orleans Saints (12-4; 1-1): The concern: Drew Brees retired and took the stability of greatness and relentless accuracy with him. In his place: Jameis Winston, one-man turnover machine. The hunch: A very good coach, Sean Payton, conjures the best from Winston. (Saints defense is pretty good, too).
12. Los Angeles Chargers (7-9): Brandon Staley is in the best position of any of the NFL’s seven new head coaches. Mainly because he inherits a franchise QB in second-year guy Justin Herbert, who has a dual-threat RB in Austin Ekeler and solid targets led by Keenan Allen. Defense was mediocre but has Joey Bosa and gets a huge boost from the return of safety Derwin James.
13. Indianapolis Colts (11-5; 0-1): A simple, season-defining question for Indy: Is Carson Wentz a franchise quarterback? It took Philly five seasons to decide the answer was no, and last year was ugly and awful. Now he reunites with an offensive coordinator (Frank Reich) who believes in him. In a very winnable division, Indy’s defense is playoff-caliber. Let’s see if Wentz is.
14. New England Patriots (7-9): Bill Belichick lost Tom Brady and suffered his first losing season in 20 years. Can Coach G.O.A.T. bounce back? His defense looks good enough, and gets D’onta Hightower back from an opt-out season. The big question is whether Cam Newton (who seemed the likely starter late in the preseason) can turn around a bad offense while rookie Mac Jones develops. Is the 2015 Cam still in and able to be coaxed out? If not it could be another down year in Patsville.
15. Dallas Cowboys (6-10): Dak Prescott finally returned to full health late this preseason after the awful ankle injury that aborted his season last October. A healthy Dak, Ezekiel Elliott and a grade-A receiving corps fortified by rookie CeeDee Lamb should give the Boys a great offense. But new defensive coordinator Dan Quinn needs to turn around a bad D to avoid another Hard Knocks year.
16. Washington Football Team (7-9; 0-1): The No-Names won an embarrassingly bad division last year, and a repeat would not surprise. Ryan Fitzpatrick was a smart stopgap hire at QB, and Washington returns a very solid defense led by a pair of great young pass rushers in Chase Young and Montez Sweat.
17. Tennessee Titans (11-5; 0-1): Sensing a downturn in fortunes for a team that lost its offensive coordinator, suffered a couple of notable hits in free agency and had a big falloff defensively last year. Our gloom wasn’t lessened when nine Titans including Ryan Tannehill tested positive for COVID late in the preseason. Tannehill still has A.J. Brown and Derrick Henry, though, and adds aging Julio Jones.
18. Minnesota Vikings (7-9): Offense shouldn’t be the problem for Team Purple with better-than-ever Dalvin Cook and usually-good-enough Kirk Cousins out front. The throbbing issue is defense. It collapsed horribly late last season, and there’s been little evidence of a significant offseason remedy.
19. Pittsburgh Steelers (8-8): Hard to believe Pitt was 11-0 last year before a late collapse, including an embarrassing playoff lay-down against Cleveland. Still think the Steelers D is good enough. It’s up to the other side in what could be Ben Roethlisberger’s final season. A retooled O-line and top-pick RB Najee Harris took aim at two problem areas and should give Big Ben a fair shot at going out right.
THE ALSO-RANS
20. Arizona Cardinals (8-8): The Redbirds’ 2-5 fade blew a playoff shot last season and put a smidgen of heat on coach Kliff Kingsbury entering this one. Zona added a pair of big names this offseason but, sorry, J.J. Watt and A.J. Green both are on the career downside. Amid rumors team might trade top sackman Chandler Jones, Arizona will need some heavy lifting from Kyler Murray.
21. Chicago Bears (8-8; 0-1): When will it be Justin Fields’ time? The question hovers over the team and steers this season in Chitown. Fans want the rookie QB now, but veteran Andy Dalton will start Game 1. Bears look solid on D, although departure of top corner Kyle Fuller is a big loss. CHI needs QB impact to be in playoff hunt.
22. Denver Broncos (5-11): The Broncos are officially irrelevant, at least for now — with zero Sunday or Monday games in prime time for first time since 1991. Teddy Bridgewater beat Drew Lock for the QB job. Denver will rely first on defense, which features edge rushers Bradley Chubb and Von Miller and elite corners in Kyle Fuller and Patrick Surtain II.
23. Las Vegas Raiders (8-8): Jon Gruden has won 19 games in three seasons. Tick, tock, Chucky. Derek Carr is good enough and has plenty of weapons. Offense isn’t the problem in Vegas. Raiders have invested lots of high draft capital on defense the past few years but with little to show.
24. Atlanta Falcons (4-12): Julio Jones is gone, but Matt Ryan still has Calvin Ridley and Russell Gage, and now adds rookie tight end Kyle Pitts. New coach Arthur Smith should see plenty of points. But enough to overcome defensive shortcomings?
25. New York Giants (6-10): Biggies are 18-46 the past four years and desperate enough to have spent big in free agency. So, yeah, the heat is on … everybody. Need Daniel Jones to be a better QB and a big bounce-back year from Saquon Barkley. Team signed Kenny Golloday and drafted Kadarius Toney, meaning Jones has two less excuses to fail. Defense was OK and added CB Adoree Jackson. It’s the O that needs to produce.
26. Carolina Panthers (5-11): The good news? Christian McCaffrey is back healthy after a lost year and still a fantasy darling. The bad news? In an offseason when top QBs were changing teams, the needy Panthers settled for Sam Darnold. Defense could be OK and added No. 8 overall pick Jaycee Horn. But who trusts Darnold?
THE DREGS
27. Philadelphia Eagles (4-11-1): Jalen Hurts gets his chance to prove he’s the quarterback of the future. Doubts about that, although drafting Devonta Smith should help. Too many questions and issues to make this a smooth ride for first-year coach Nick Sirianni and a team in rebuild mode.
28. Cincinnati Bengals (4-11-1): We saw more than a rookie glimpse (10 games) but now get a full season of QB Joe Burrow as he comes off major knee surgery. He has the weapons in Tyler Boyd, Tee Higgins and now rookie Ja’Marr Chase. But there are too many other roster holes to see even Burrow as a quick fix.
29. Jacksonville Jaguars (1-15): Seldom if ever has the NFL seen a noisier rookie debut of a head coach and quarterback than what Jax has with Urban Meyer and Trevor Lawrence, one a college national champion coach, the other an overall No. 1 draft pick. Meyer had zero losing seasons in 17 years of college ball. Lawrence was 34-2 at Clemson. Both are in for a rude awakening, this year at least.
30. New York Jets (2-14): A rookie QB, Zach Wilson, starting from Day 1 with zero experience backing him up. And modest weapons. And a below-average defense. Wilson might prove a smart pick, and Robert Saleh a good hire as coach, but they will need time, and help, to turn around what has become the NFL’s sadsack-iest franchise.
31. Detroit Lions (5-11): New coach Dan (Man) Campbell is of the kneecap-busting, run-through-a-wall variety of macho gung ho, so it will be interesting to see how a torrent of losing might humble him. Matthew Stafford to Jared Goff is a notable downgrade at QB, top receivers Kenny Golloday and Marvin Jones are gone, and the defense is bereft of playmakers. Otherwise, all good!
32. Houston Texans (4-12): New coach David Culley steps in it, to put it indelicately but accurately. The mess starts with star QB Deshaun Watson, disgruntled, wanting out, and chased by two dozen accusations of sexual misconduct, his future unclear. The team won only four games with Watson. Now it’s Tyrod Taylor. The defense was awful and got worse. The Texans are playing for the overall No. 1 draft pick.