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We all have those high draft picks on our rosters who should be automatic starters week after week, right? Not so fast. I don’t believe in the old adage “always start your studs”, as it’s sort of lazy and not entirely accurate if you want the most out of your fantasy squad.
In this new weekly column, I’ll take a look at individual matchups and point out players who I think could struggle, even if they’re on the elite side of things. I’m not saying to sit them without question, but proceed with caution when making those difficult lineup choices, as they do have the potential to bust.
Ezekiel Elliott @ Buccaneers
I can hear your moans from here because sitting a first-round pick is not something anyone wants to even ponder, but I’m here to provide all the information that I can and get you to at least consider any alternate options. Dallas will be without guard Zack Martin this week, who Elliott referred to as the best player on their offense. Considering the immense talent on the Cowboys’ offensive roster, that’s quite the statement, although it is coming from a guy who can’t do much without Martin’s protection.
Throw in a Tampa Bay defense that allowed just 17.3 half-PPR points per game to opposing backfields last season (fourth-fewest) and it could be really tough sledding for Elliott on Thursday night. I don’t expect many if any of you to sit the Dallas RB, but at the very least lower your expectations.
Justin Herbert @ Football Team
The sophomore has tons of upside this season and was drafted as the QB8 for a reason. However, Herbert gets a gnarly tilt with Washington to start us off and may not put up those starting numbers we crave for fantasy glory. The Football Team allowed the third-fewest fantasy points to opposing QBs in 2020 (16.7) and held teams to the lowest total passing yards in the NFL with just 3,363 over the course of 16 contests.
Most, if not all of you drafted Herbert with the intent to ride him all season as your QB1, but you have been warned that Week 1 may not be as fruitful for the 23-year old as we’d all like.
D’Andre Swift vs. 49ers
Before we even get into his opponent, Swift is a shaky start this week due to questions regarding his health. He’s been sidelined for the better part of a month with a groin issue so readiness is a legitimate concern. Lions’ head coach Dan Campbell has said that the 22-year old will be ready, but just how much they will use the RB is still unclear.
As a defensive unit last year, the 49ers surrendered just 74 rushing yards per contest – the fifth-fewest – and only allowed 18.1 half-PPR points per game to opposing backfields which ranked seventh in the NFL. Oh, and that was with two of their best players in Nick Bosa and Dee Ford out for the majority of the season. You drafted Swift in the fourth round as your RB2 or possibly even your RB1, but you may want to metaphorically rest him this week until we know the touch distribution of the Detroit backfield and there’s a softer opponent on the other side of the ball.
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Allen Robinson @ Rams
Robinson may be one of the most QB-proof wideouts in the league, but matchup-proof is a whole different story. He gets Jalen Ramsey and the Rams right out of the gate, a secondary that yielded the fewest half-PPR points to WRs last season and should be stout again in 2021.
Despite the fact that Robinson has made lemonade out of a plethora of really bad QBs over the years, we can’t ignore the fact that he will have a past-his-prime Andy Dalton throwing him the ball this week, with the possibility of a lost locker room if they struggle mightily by even half time. The eight-year veteran should be considered a fantasy WR1 for most weeks this season, but for Sunday’s matchup, he has the potential to be nothing more than a WR3.
Gerald Everett @ Colts
The former Ram may not fall into the elite category, but to be fair there is only a handful of TEs who qualify on a good day. Everett gets a difficult start to his Seahawk debut, as he heads east for a road tilt in Indianapolis. The Colts’ defense only allowed three touchdowns all of last year to the TE position and held opposing TEs to a measly 8.3 half-PPR points per game.
If you waited to select your TE until the later rounds of the draft and scooped Everett thinking this was his breakout season, you may want to put that on hold for at least one more week.