For the second slam running, Russian baseliner Daniil Medvedev finds himself cast in the disruptor’s role. A gangling guard dog, standing in the way of tennis’s biggest treasure.
Because, when the Australian Open final begins on Sunday, Medvedev will be the only man who can prevent Rafael Nadal from claiming a 21st major title.
This “Race to 21” is sport’s answer to the grail-quest. It is now into its fifth season, with each member of the so-called Big Three having held chances along the way. Every year throws up further cliff-hangers. To adapt Graham Gooch’s famous line to Ian Botham, who writes these scripts?
Roger Federer was the first man to collect a 20th major trophy, all the way back in 2018. He could hardly have got much closer to a 21st, holding two championship points at Wimbledon the following year, only for Novak Djokovic to dramatically gazump him. Federer has played just three more slams since, because of his chronic knee trouble, and not reached another final.
Then, last September, Djokovic had his chance. Having already landed the first three majors of the year, the world No 1 arrived in New York as the runaway favourite to complete the calendar grand slam. The red carpet was in place, the coronation ready to roll. Except that, when the trophy match came around, Djokovic didn’t win a set.
Now, with delightful symmetry, it’s Rafael Nadal’s turn. After carving his way through the top of the Melbourne draw – which was significantly weakened by Djokovic’s expulsion from Australia – Nadal is about to play for his chance to move clear of the three-way tie on 20 majors.
It is the sort of mission that would make anyone nervous. And yet, Nadal has shown no sign of the anxiety and tension that afflicted Djokovic in September. “He [Nadal] is more relaxed about it than Novak,” was the view of Eurosport pundit Boris Becker this week.
These two men have very different personalities. Djokovic spends a lot of time plotting, planning, and thinking about his legacy. Whereas, as soon as the battle is done, Nadal nips off to his yacht or swings a golf club. He knows how to switch his tennis brain off.
A more significant factor, though, can be found in the players’ respective build-ups. Last year, Djokovic had surfed an irresistible wave of confidence into New York. If anything, his run-in was too dominant. The burden of expectation eventually overcame him, leaving him weeping into the towel even before the US Open final had concluded.
Nadal, by contrast, has only just returned from a soul-searching lay-off. A couple of months ago, he feared that his congenital foot issue might force him into immediate retirement. No wonder this tournament feels like a free hit.
“For me, it’s something completely unexpected, so I am super happy,” said Nadal, who shed tears of his own at the conclusion of his semi-final victory over Matteo Berrettini. “For me, it’s a present, just [to] be here and play tennis, no? I’m taking things now in a different way. For me is much more important to have the chance to play tennis than win the 21, no?”
If the world’s attention will be on Nadal, the smart money is on Medvedev. Consistent and hard-headed, the Russian has learned how to pressure opponents from first ball to last without taking undue risks.
Asked how he felt about his role as potential party pooper, Medvedev gave his customary wolfish grin. “I’m happy to have the chance to try to stop one more time somebody from making history,” he said. “I know what’s happening, I know what Rafa is going for, I knew what Novak was going for. But it’s kind of their thing, not mine. I’m just there to try to win the final.”
Admittedly, Medvedev lost his rag during his semi-final win over Stefanos Tsitsipas. He accused his opponent of receiving coaching instructions, and ranted at the chair umpire, calling him “a small cat”. In general, though, he maintains a bulletproof mental focus. Which is something that neither of Nadal’s last two victims – Denis Shapovalov and Berrettini – were able to do.
Those matches left us wondering whether Nadal, for all his undoubted skills, is quite the same physical presence that he used to be. Throughout this tournament, the pattern has been for him to dominate the first two sets, then suffer a power fade in the third.
Here is the reason why Medvedev feels like a strong bet. As Tsitsipas explained on Friday, “he’s able to run so much and make it physical out there in every single point”. And this could invoke the age difference between the two finalists, which stands at very nearly a decade.
There are a couple of other records on offer here. A Nadal victory would make him only the fourth man – and second in the Open era, after Djokovic – to win each of the majors at least twice. Whereas, were Medvedev to win, he would become the first man in the Open era to back up his maiden major by winning a second at the very next attempt.
Finally, Medvedev could move to the top of the world rankings if he came out on top. It would feel a little odd to see a new name on top on the ladder, given that Djokovic has reigned almost unbroken since the end of 2018. Even so, one suspects that Djokovic would prefer this outcome to the alternative.