The French Open is into the Third Round, and the action is just beginning to heat up at Roland Garros. With the action getting underway early on Saturday, let’s go through some bets to make to start your day off right.
Roger Federer (-400) vs. Dominik Koepfer (+285) Total: 35.5 Games
The return of Federer to the Men’s game was celebrated worldwide, with good reason. It’s felt like the return to normalcy we’ve all needed to see Federer nailing backhands down the line on television. With that said, we’ve been romanticizing Federer just a little bit.
Taking off the blinders we all have on just happy to see Fed out there, many flaws are present. The G.O.A.T. simply looks rusty out there, with his body failing to catch up to what his mind wants to do with some of these points. Clay has never been his best surface, and that’s particularly true right now with the way he’s relied on his serve to get him through matches in 2021. With slower conditions expected in Paris, this could be where Fed makes his exit and begins to plan for Wimbledon.
On paper, a 9-7 clay-court record doesn’t jump out at you for Koepfer, but he’s been battling some fantastic competition for months and could not look any better at Roland Garros. He is nailing his first serves and playing some brutal, relentless tennis highlighted by his big two-handed backhand which was particularly impressive against American Taylor Fritz.
I think this will be a marathon match, which would make the game spread a near-guarantee, and as the match wears on it will favor the younger Koepfer more and more. I’m going to opt for the spread as opposed to the game total in case Federer just comes out flat here, which is a big risk.
Edge: Koepfer +5.5 Games, Koepfer +285
Coco Gauff (-195) vs. Jennifer Brady (+150) Total: 21.5 Games
It’s admittedly pretty wild to see a 17-year-old favored this heavily over one of the world’s top 20 players and a finalist at 2021’s most recent Grand Slam, but it’s deserved. To Gauff’s credit, she’s the much better player on clay, possessing a better ground game and defensive style. That’s why she’s gone on an insane 14-3 run on the clay this year, winning a title in Parma and losing to Ons Jabeur, Karolina Pliskova (at altitude, mind you) and the best clay player in world on the women’s side in Iga Swiatek.
Not many can hold a candle to Gauff’s year, yet the one area she’s continued to struggle is putting opponents away. Gauff has shown an affinity for sending her matches over the total and going three sets, and I think this is yet another example of that.
Jennifer Brady has the serve and forehand to cause some real problems for Gauff, and while it’s been enough to beat her on a hardcourt, I think it’ll just push her to the brink and nothing more on the clay, where Brady’s a bit weaker. The slightly-older American has made some strides on the surface over the last year or two and should be up to the task of taking on Coco.
I’d look into taking Gauff 2-1 at +280 if you’re feeling lucky, but the over should be the best play here.
Edge: Over 21.5