The Nittany Lions (12-2) cruised through the first half with their closest victory being a thrilling Week 7, 33-30 comeback win over @USC where PSU posted an 86%-win expectancy. All of their other 10 regular season wins carried near perfect 94%+ win expectancies, as PSU exhibited a thorough mastery of their B10 schedule. Penn State was unable to corral Oregon’s potent offense in the Big Ten Championship though, allowing 496 total yards in the process of dropping a 45-37 decision to the Ducks. OC Andy Kotelnicki’s offense ranks 2nd in success rate, 5th in EPA/play and 2nd in marginal efficiency. There are flaws though, with PSU checking in at a dismal 92nd in yards per successful play and 59th in explosiveness. The Nittany Lions Defense has been elite once again, ranking 7th in SP+ with their lockdown defensive backfield allowing just 5.2 yards per dropback (14th in FBS). Projected Top 10 2025 NFL Draft Edge Abdul Carter leads a pass rush that ranks 9th overall with a 42.3% pressure rate and 25th in sacks per dropback (7.8%).
Boise State (12-1) and superstar RB Ashton Jeanty have taken the nation by storm, winning every game on their schedule except for a hotly contested 37-34 loss to undefeated #1 ranked Oregon. Boise dominated every other team they faced by recording a 92%+ win expectancy or more in every contest except one – their first game against @UNLV (39%). BSU then proceeded to soundly defeat UNLY 21-7 with a 99%-win expectancy in the MWC Championship to emphatically stake their claim to a CFP Playoff berth and first round Bye. Fueled by RB Ashton Jeanty’s Heisman Trophy runner-up campaign, BSU ranks 12th in SP+ offense, 3rd in EPA/play and 10th in marginal explosiveness. However, defensively they check in as the 46th overall unit and have had trouble corralling opposing offenses, ranking 118th in yards per successful rush allowed and 126th in marginal explosiveness.
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Game Details and How to watch Vrbo Fiesta Bowl: Boise State vs. Penn State
· Date: Saturday, December 31st, 2024
· Time: 7:30 PM EST
· Site: State Farm Stadium
· City: Glendale, AZ
· TV/Streaming: ESPN
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Game odds for Boise State vs. Penn State
*odds courtesy of BetMGM
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Moneyline: Arizona State (-125), Iowa State (+105)
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Spread: Arizona State -2.5
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Over/Under: 49.5 points
Expert picks & predictions for Penn State vs. Boise State
NBC Sports Bet Best Bet
NBC Sports Betting Analyst Eric Froton (@CFFroton) thinks:
“Boise State has scored 20+ points in every game this season with the exception of a 17-13 land war against Wyoming. Penn State has allowed 20+ points five times this season to teams such as Oregon, Minnesota, Ohio State, USC and Bowling Green. I think Boise State can generate enough offense to clear their 19.5 points team total line.”
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Quarterback matchup for Penn State vs. Boise State
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Boise State: When 2023 starting QB Taylen Green transferred to Arkansas in the offseason, Boise State responded by bringing in USC transfer and 2023 high four-star recruit Malachi Nelson to compete for the job with Maddux Madsen, who had sustained a season-ending injury in 2023. However, Madsen won the job outright and has been a steady hand completing 62% of his passes for 2,714 passing yards, 7.5 YPA and a 22-to-3 ratio and five rushing touchdowns. Madsen is very careful with the ball, as is evidenced by his microscopic 1.1% interception rate, but he’s been pretty fortunate to have only 3 of his 16 turnover worthy plays turn into interceptions. He has been sacked just 10 times all year, ranks 7th nationally in sacks per game and is sporting an exceptional 9.6% pressure-to-sack rate.
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Penn State: Five-star QB Drew Allar sustained a knee injury and was questionable in the leadup to their pivotal Ohio State game, but the grizzled vet managed to gut it out in the 20-13 loss. Allar ranks 20th nationally with an 85.5 PFF overall grade and is handling the rush expertly, rating 7th in FBS with a 71st% under-pressure grade. As a team, PSU ranks 2nd in passing success rate and is gaining first down yardage on 61.7% of their completions (6th). Allar isn’t putting the ball in the air much in PSU’s run-heavy offense, throwing 24.7 passes per game which ranks 53rd out of 57 Power Four quarterbacks with 200+ attempts. He’s averaging 0.3 interceptions per game since 2023, which is tied for the best interception rate over the last two seasons with Missouri’s Brady Cook and…Boise State’s Maddux Madsen.
Penn State vs. Boise State: Betting Trends & Recent Stats
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Boise State has tackled opponents for a loss on 94 of 412 rushing attempts (23% TFL%) this season, 2nd-best among non-power conference teams.
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Maddux Madsen has completed passes for 20+ yards on just 1 of his 56 total passing attempts on 3rd and long this season, 7th-worst among FBS Quarterbacks. He also has 3 interceptions on 361 attempts this season, which ranks 4th-best among FBS Quarterbacks.
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Boise State has sacked opposing QBs on 12% of pass attempts this season, 2nd-best in FBS.
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Boise State is 11-2 (.786) against the spread when allowing less than 5 explosive passes since the 2023 season, 3rd-best in FBS. (Average: .529). They are undefeated (7-0) against the spread when allowing less than 200 passing yards since the 2023 season, best in FBS. (Average: .521).
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Jonah Dalmas has averaged touchbacks on 40% of kickoffs since the 2023 season, 6th-worst among FBS kickers.
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Boise State’s RBs are averaging 3 rushing touchdowns per game this season, tops among FBS RBs. Penn State’s defense has allowed just 0.5 rushing touchdowns per game this season, tied for 2nd-best among P5 defenses.
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Penn State is winless (0-5) against the spread when allowing 100 or more rushing yards this season, tied for worst in FBS. (Average: .433)
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Penn State TEs have been targeted 48 times in the Red Zone since the 2023 season, most among Big Ten Teams.
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Penn State has allowed passes of 40+ yards on just 4-of-748 attempts since the 2023 season, 2nd-best in FBS.
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Nicholas Singleton has rushed for 10 or more yards on 29 of his 145 carries this season, 6th-best among Power Four running backs.
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Drew Allar has completed just 55% of passes (66 completions/121 net pass attempts) in the 4th quarter since the 2023 season, 9th-worst among power conference quarterbacks.
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Penn State has allowed just 2.7 yards per carry since the 2023 season, best in FBS.
College Football talk is taking over Bet the Edge every Thursday throughout the season. BET THE EDGE is your source for all things sports betting. Get all of Vaughn Dalzell, Eric Froton, and Brad Thomas’ insights Thursdays at 6AM ET right here or wherever you get your favorite podcasts.
BetMGM College Football Insights: National Championship
Line movement (Open to Now)
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Texas +1000 to +300
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Ohio State +700 to +375
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Oregon +900 to +400
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Georgia +500 to +550
Highest Ticket%
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Ohio State 12.3%
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Texas 9.7%
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Georgia 9.7%
Highest Handle%
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Ohio State 15.0%
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Georgia 13.6%
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Texas 10.4%
Biggest Liabilities
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Arizona State
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Notre Dame
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Boise State
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Jay Croucher (@croucherJD)
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Vaughn Dalzell (@VmoneySports)
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Brad Thomas (@MrBradThomas)
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Eric Froton (@CFFroton)