Welcome to Week 7, fantasy managers! If you are new to this article series, I will be using my Expected Fantasy Points model to determine which players relied on volume or efficiency to produce for fantasy. In short, the two metrics that we will use each week are:
Why do these metrics matter? Basically, fantasy production rooted in volume (or xFP) is usually sustainable week to week. We want to target players who rank highly in this metric. On the other hand, players who rely on efficiency (or FPOE) are much more volatile week to week. For a more detailed breakdown of my model, be sure to check out my series primer from Week 1!
Let’s dive in for Week 7!
Wide Receivers: Fantasy Usage & Efficiency
Ja’Marr Chase – Cincinnati Bengals
Why does the metric Expected Fantasy Points (xFP) matter? Simply put, it tells us the average fantasy value of a player based on the quality and quantity of opportunities that they receive. Therefore, if a player is struggling to produce despite significant usage, regression will eventually bring them back to fantasy relevance as long as their volume remains mostly unchanged.
Ja’Marr Chase is the perfect example of this. After a top-five performance in Week 1, Chase scored less than 11 half-PPR points in four straight games. Despite that, he was still the WR4 in Expected Fantasy Points (15.7) through the first five weeks, while only ranking as the WR22 in actual points per game (12.1). This told us two things:
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Chase was still receiving elite WR1 usage
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Regression was coming
And as expected, regression happened in Week 6 as Chase once again received double-digit targets. But unlike in previous weeks, he found the end zone twice – one of which was a 60-yard touchdown that sealed the win for Cincinnati. Expect more elite performances from Chase as the Bengals have the easiest schedule for fantasy wide receivers going forward.
Juju Smith-Schuster – Kansas City Chiefs
Juju Smith-Schuster finished this past week with his first top-12 performance of the season. However, as you can see in the table above, his production was heavily driven by efficiency as he scored +13.5 Fantasy Points Above Expected. So while he did finish as a WR1, it is slightly concerning that his volume only equated to a meager 6.3 Expected Fantasy Points.
This has actually been a recurring theme for Smith-Schuster this season, ranking as only the WR40 in xFP at 9.3 per game and finishing outside of the top 20 in usage in five of six games. In other words, his Week 6 performance does not change the fact that he still holds a relatively low floor and is likely just a weekly FLEX/WR4 for fantasy unless we see an improvement in his usage.
Of course, playing with Patrick Mahomes does give him the upside of scoring a touchdown on any given week. But unless he finds the end zone again as he did in Week 6, fantasy managers will likely be left disappointed more often than not.
Running Backs: Fantasy Usage & Efficiency
Christian McCaffrey – Carolina Panthers
When you drafted Christian McCaffrey with the 2nd- or 3rd-overall pick, you were obviously hoping he would be the dominant player we have grown accustomed to since his second year in the league. Unfortunately, that was not the case earlier in the season. To be fair, he was still receiving RB1 usage, ranking as the RB6 in xFP (14.5) from Weeks 1 to 3. However, when the standard set by McCaffrey was over 20 fantasy points per game, I can understand why fantasy managers were slightly disappointed when he failed to exceed 15 half-PPR points in each of his first three games.
Fortunately, the tide seems to be turning as McCaffrey has averaged 20.2 fantasy points over the last three weeks, receiving an impressive 43.2 percent opportunity share and a 29.9 percent target share in that period. So despite the chaos of the Panthers’ offense, CMC should continue to be a focal point for this team, providing fantasy managers with both a high floor and ceiling every single week.
Rhamondre Stevenson – New England Patriots
The Rhamondre Stevenson breakout continues as he received 20 opportunities for the second week in a row. More importantly, his production was heavily rooted in volume as Stevenson received 65.5 percent of the team’s rushing attempts and 16.1 percent of their targets.
To put those numbers into perspective, the only running backs to meet or exceed both of those production thresholds in Week 6 were Leonard Fournette and Christian McCaffrey.
As a result, it was not surprising to find that Stevenson ranked RB4 in my usage model with an impressive 19.6 expected fantasy value (xFP). In short, as long as Damien Harris is sidelined, Stevenson should retain RB1 value as the Patriots have shown the willingness to use him as a true bell-cow running back. And against a Bears defense that has allowed the second most rushing yards this season, Stevenson should be locked as an RB1 in your lineups this week.
Tight Ends: Fantasy Usage & Efficiency
Greg Dulcich – Denver Broncos
After missing the first five games due to a hamstring injury, Greg Dulcich made his long-awaited debut for the Denver Broncos. He made an immediate impact as he led all Broncos’ tight ends in snap share (71 percent), targets (3) and receiving yards (44) in his first career game. What was most encouraging is how heavily he was used as a receiver as he lined up 47.1% of the time in the slot. We even saw Dulcich run a couple of deep routes, one of which he converted into a 39-yard touchdown reception. In addition, he almost scored a second time as Russell Wilson targeted him inside the end zone, though he was not quite able to reel it in.
So while his volume (12% target share) and xFP (4.95) were far from impressive, I expect him to only improve as he continues to acclimate to the league. As a result, make sure to pick up Dulcich off of waivers before he faces a Jets defense that just allowed Robert Tonyan to score 14 half-PPR points on 12 targets.
Quarterbacks: Fantasy Usage & Efficiency
Trevor Lawrence – Jacksonville Jaguars
For the second time this season, Trevor Lawrence finished as a top-five fantasy quarterback. However, unlike in Week 3 when he threw the ball 39 times for 262 yards and three touchdowns, Lawrence primarily produced on the ground this past week. In fact, two of his three touchdowns came on a quarterback draw and sneak within two yards of the end zone. As a result, my usage model attributed a majority of his fantasy production to efficiency (FPOE) as he converted two of his six rushing attempts into touchdowns.
As a passer, Lawrence has surprisingly been below average, ranking outside of the top 16 in both Completion Percentage Over Expected and Adjusted Yards per Attempt. Therefore, it was encouraging to see him offset some of that inefficiency with his rushing production in Week 6.
Keep in mind, however, if his passing efficiency does not improve and his opportunities on the ground remain inconsistent, Lawrence’s floor will remain low, which could result in a few disappointing performances similar to Weeks 4 and 5.