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Schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed, or aFPA, is 4for4’s answer to biased statistics. By removing bias, we can level the playing field and compare matchups in an “apples-to-apples” manner. As the season moves along, the data will change. Regardless, aFPA is arguably the best tool available to gain an edge when using waivers and building lineups.
Another point to make: I could offer players such as Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes pretty much every week, especially when they face awful units according to aFPA. That does everyone a disservice, so I will do my best to avoid players rostered in the majority of fantasy leagues.
Here are the best plays for Week 6.
We have reached the first week where byes alter rosters. Thankfully, a few quarterbacks should be on the waiver wire that can fill in for you. Daniel Jones is one of the best lower-rostered options with the Ravens coming to town. The Ravens allow the sixth-most schedule-adjusted fantasy points to QBs, and the Giants have shown in back-to-back weeks that the offense is on the rise. Few teams are hurting on offense like the Giants, but the New Jersey-based franchise has won two straight games with game plans suited to attack the main weakness of the opposing defense. Jones shined as a passer/rusher overseas in Week 5 and has a chance to push for a second 20-point fantasy performance in three weeks with Lamar Jackson running roughshod against defenses.
The Broncos’ backfield is open for interpretation, but it looms large in their road matchup against the Chargers. Russell Wilson is dealing with a partially torn lat muscle, and despite throwing at practice, receiving treatment and being set to start Week 6, it would be wise to pull back the passing attack with the Chargers ranking 28th in aFPA against running backs. Melvin Gordon III, Latavius Murray and Mike Boone offer enough versatility to keep the Chargers from strictly assuming run or pass depending on each play’s back(s). Gordon and Boone combined for 28 total touches in Week 5 before the public knew of Wilson’s ailment. Prior to Javonte Williams being lost for the season, the Broncos RBs had 14 red-zone carries, with Gordon toting the ball 10 times. Murray also earned a red-zone carry in his lone appearance with the Saints.
A mixture of the three-headed backfield plus quick passes from Wilson (and the continued absence of Keenan Allen?) will keep Justin Herbert off the field. The Broncos’ defense has been strong through five games, but none of the offenses they have faced compare to what the Chargers do.
Thursday night contests are tough to recommend, but Mooney has a chance to build off his (and Chicago’s) most promising offensive performance of the season. If we just keep it simple on a short week, the offense runs through David Montgomery, Khalil Herbert, Justin Fields and Darnell Mooney. The Commanders won’t have time to alter their defense a lot, giving Mooney an opportunity to face the 31st-ranked unit against WRs using aFPA. Opposing WR1s have reached 100 receiving yards and/or scored in four of five games against Washington. The Commanders’ defense is also allowing 15.08 yards per reception. Chicago is far from exciting, but holding on to Mooney is finally paying off in time for bye weeks.
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Sometimes the choice just falls in your lap. As every analyst expected, Will Dissly is the TE1 in Seattle, while Zach Ertz continues to be a safety valve for Kyler Murray. Seattle and Arizona are 32nd and 31st in tight end aFPA, respectively, and get to shine as the movable objects Sunday afternoon. Both offenses have a chance to get healthy in a game with the second-highest over/under of Week 6. Dissly is a great streamer with T.J. Hockenson and Jesper Horsted (the heir apparent to Darren Waller) on bye.
Honorable Mentions
Jimmy Garoppolo @ Falcons
Justin Fields vs. Commanders
Kirk Cousins @ Dolphins
Rhamondre Stevenson @ Browns
Eno Benjamin/healthy Cardinals RBs @ Seahawks
Devin Singletary @ Chiefs
Darrell Henderson Jr. vs. Panthers
Tyler Boyd @ Saints
Darius Slayton vs. Ravens
Daniel Bellinger vs. Ravens
Irv Smith Jr. @ Dolphins
Evan Engram @ Colts
This story originally appeared on 4for4.com
More from 4for4.com: 8 stash candidates ahead of Week 6
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Jeff has played fantasy sports since 2001. He has covered fantasy and traditional sports at the pro, semi-pro, and amateur level for the better part of a decade. Born in Illinois and currently living where James Robinson made a name for himself in college, Jeff enjoys running (establish it), followed by doing absolutely nothing.