I’m not too sure that these proclamations are the boldest of the bold, but I certainly feel strong about them. One thing is always certain in sports, the exact same thing never happens the following year. Some things come at us from left field instead of right, and some things we never see coming at all. This especially holds true in fantasy football — James Robinson says hello. Here are some of my “zags” to which others may “zig” when it comes to fantasy football in 2021.
Matt Ryan finishes as a top-10 fantasy quarterback.
In the eyes of many, Atlanta Falcons veteran quarterback Matt Ryan is at a “fantasy football” crossroads. If we like Calvin Ridley, Kyle Pitts and the potential of Russell Gage, why not the guy passing them the ball? Through no fault of his own, the emergence of younger dual-threat quarterbacks and the loss of former teammate Julio Jones have fantasy managers sleeping on the grizzled vet. Sure, Ryan struggled early in the 2020 season without Jones as the season wore on, however he learned to do well without him. In the final three weeks of the 2020 season, Ryan faced the eventual Super Bowl champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers (twice) and the runner-up Kansas City Chiefs. During that span, he passed for 921 yards, 7 touchdowns, no interceptions and had a completion percentage of 70.3, good for QB10. In some drafts, especially 1QB leagues, he isn’t even being drafted. How can we fade a player who has averaged 4,570 yards, 28 touchdowns and 14 interceptions per season for 10 years? We cannot ignore the fact that Ryan has finished as a fantasy QB1 the past three seasons, one of which where he finished behind only Patrick Mahomes during his MVP season (2018). With Calvin Ridley forming into a true WR1, rookie tight end Kyle Pitts, new coach Arthur Smith and a shaky defense, Matt Ryan will let the good times roll and continue to let it fly in 2021.
Najee Harris will establish himself as a top-7 fantasy option at running back.
Follow the history, and follow the usage and tendencies of Steelers running backs under head coach Mike Tomlin. Imagining Najee Harris being so good as a rookie with a team who had a faulty offensive line in 2020 may be hard for some. We all know and remember how dominant Le’Veon Bell was in fantasy during 2016 and 2017 (RB3 and RB2 respectively); he was elite. James Conner took over in 2018 and finished as RB6, but we did not consider him elite. Harris is the man in line for the job in 202,1 and even if he is not as good as Bell was, we have to at least feel he is better than James Conner was at his best. Volume is king in fantasy football, and Harris will see plenty of it, no matter how you feel about the offensive line. There have been at least two rookie running backs finish as an RB1 five of the past six seasons. Tomlin has made it no secret how he feels about Harris either — he is ready to see the kid play. Ben Roethlisberger will continue to seek the running back in the passing game, and Harris will benefit. At the end of the day, the talent, plus the opportunity is just too good to ignore in the case of the rookie running back.
Julio Jones returns to the fantasy football elite and finishes inside the top-10 receivers.
It seems like forever ago that Julio Jones was the first, maybe second wide receiver off the board in our fantasy drafts. It’s unfortunate that the narrative on an all-time great player (who still has great talent) can change in less than one calendar year based on a lame hamstring. If you’re willing to cling onto that, then this may not help, but if you are reading this with open eyes and a clear mind, you will probably witness the biggest steal at wide receiver in 2021. In 2020, Jones averaged 16.2 PPR fantasy points per game in the nine games he played, which was good for WR14. Here’s the kicker — of those nine games, three of those were not played in full resulting in lower point totals:
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Week 2 @ DAL – In and out of the game due to injury, 2 receptions for 24 yards
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Week 4 @ GB – Only played first half after re-aggravation, 4 receptions for 32 yards
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Week 11 @ NO – In and out of the game due to injury, 2 receptions for 39 yards
In the six games Jones did play in full, he averaged 18.2 PPR fantasy points per game, which would have placed him at WR5, and that is normal Julio. While his current quarterback Ryan Tannehill doesn’t figure to toss the ball 600 plus times like Matt Ryan, the departed Corey Davis (Jets) and Jonnu Smith (Patriots) leave behind 157 targets between them. Being the alpha receiver that he is (A.J Brown publicly concedes to Jones), he should be in line to command around 25-30% target share, which would be more than enough for Jones to thrive, even in a run-based offense.
Mike Gesicki out scores T.J. Hockenson and his hype in 2021.
In 2020, Mike Gesicki and T.J Hockenson had fantasy finishes of TE7 and TE5 respectively. That is where we can start; not much separated them in terms of fantasy scoring. Hockenson’s hype is mainly based on the fact that there is no true WR1 on the Lions’ roster. What hurts that argument a bit is that the incoming quarterback Jared Goff isn’t exactly known for churning out elite fantasy tight ends. On the flip side in Miami, Tua Tagovailoa has shown great improvement already in 2021, and he has already been connecting with Gesicki early and often. Hockenson averaged 11 PPR fantasy points per game in 2020, and not far behind was Gesicki who averaged 10.6. Banking on more solid quarterback play and a more stable team and offense is what will lead to Gesicki out-dueling his tight end counterpart.