To help with your fantasy baseball draft prep, Dalton Del Don will examine potential draft bargains at each position. He’s already offered up sleepers at catcher, first base, second base, shortstop, third base and outfield. Below you’ll find his starting pitcher draft values.
Out of the AL East for the first time in his career, Cobb showed real improvement last season with the Angels, fanning 98 batters over 93.1 innings while posting a 2.92 FIP that would’ve ranked fourth-best in baseball (tied with Gerrit Cole) had he qualified. Cobb is something of a health risk, but he now joins an organization in San Francisco that’s produced an extremely impressive recent track record in getting the best performances out of pitchers (EG Logan Webb, Kevin Gausman, Alex Wood, Anthony DeSclafani, Jake McGee, etc). Cobb is a ground baller who will also benefit from a massive upgrade in defense, as the Giants are above average whereas the Angels saddled him with the worst defense in MLB last season. Don’t be surprised if Cobb has a better fantasy season than Gausman, who’s going almost 200 picks earlier in drafts.
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Ashby’s exact timetable remains unclear, but he’s going to be a major part of Milwaukee’s rotation this season (possibly a 6-man rotation to open the year? Adrian Houser’s luck ending? Injuries?) one way or the other. Ashby struck out a whopping 100 batters over 63.1 innings in Triple-A last season, and under his 4.55 ERA with the Brewers in limited work was a 3.03 expected ERA and a 1.17 WHIP. There’s something clearly going on with pitching in Milwaukee; three Brewers starters ranked in the top-seven in K% last season, while three relievers ranked top-10. Impressive stuff. It helps that Miller Park increases strikeouts by 7% (third-most in baseball). Ashby is going after round 20 in Yahoo (and has an even later ADP in NFBC leagues), but he’s going to make a major impact over 130-140 innings or so.
The 6-foot-9, 260-pound Ober is going near pick 250 in fantasy drafts despite recording a K-BB% (20.3) that would’ve ranked 16th among starters had he qualified last year. His rookie season also featured a 3.49 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP after the All-Star break, and Ober looks even more impressive when examined under the hood. With the addition of Carlos Correa at shortstop, arguably no team in baseball now fields a better defense up the middle (this is especially true when Ryan Jeffers starts and Gary Sanchez is at DH). Moreover, Target Field has decreased homers by 10% over the last three seasons, while divisional opponents the Tigers, Royals and Guardians project as bottom-10 offenses. Ober is a late-round steal.
Gray is a former No. 3 pick who recorded 77 strikeouts over 63.0 innings after the All-Star break last season and is now finally free from Colorado. Coors Field has increased run scoring by 36% over the last three seasons (more than twice as much as the second-best hitter’s park) and has boosted homers by 13%. Texas has decreased both home runs and scoring since opening Globe Life Field. Gray will also benefit from frequently getting to pad his stats against the A’s and what looks like their league-worst offense by a mile as well as from his new middle infield defense. Gray had the biggest jump in K-BB% after the All-Star break among all pitchers last season and now gets a major upgrade in environments, so he’s a strong target currently coming off the board in Round 20.
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Brady Singer, Kansas City Royals
Singer isn’t likely to rack up wins and ended last season with arm issues, so this is a deeper sleeper. But he’s apparently back healthy now and is a former first-rounder who’s one improved changeup away from making a huge leap. If you’re seeking an esoteric stat, I’m your huckleberry; from the date the ban started on the sticky stuff (June 21) until the end of last season, Singer was second among all starters in called strike percentage. His season long 4.91 ERA came with a 4.04 FIP, and his unreal bad luck with BABIP is especially likely to regress given Kansas City has a strong defense. Take a chance on Singer late in your draft.
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