Earlier in the week, we tackled some of the polarizing hitter ADPs in Yahoo Fantasy Baseball. Today’s assignment comes on the mound. Don’t feel triggered if you disagree, these are players where disagreement comes standard.
The more competitive your league, the more you have to be comfortable paying something tangible for saves on draft day. But that doesn’t mean you absolutely have to shop in the top ADP tier. Hader and Hendriks are likely to be great, but I’d prefer to get a major hitter at those slots, or maybe one of my starting pitcher lynchpins.
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Verdict
Every league is different with saves, so season to taste. But if I’m in a league where I have to be proactive with saves, I’ll probably look for a B+ closer who has an A season in his range of outcomes, the Jordan Romano, Raisel Iglesias, Ryan Pressly group.
Robbie Ray, SP, Mariners — Yahoo ADP 53.1
Ray’s coming off a Cy Young season and he’s been in the Cy Young hunt before — note his excellent breakout year in 2017. But he was a fantasy nightmare in 2020 (6.62 ERA, 1.90 WHIP), and his ratios were also messy in 2018 and 2019.
Verdict
Ray is one of the classic boom/bust picks; last year represents a fun upside, but he doesn’t have any plausible floor. I don’t have the stomach for Ray at his current sticker, even with the move to pitcher-friendly Seattle. If he loses his way, no park is going to save him.
Carlos Rodon, SP, Giants — Yahoo ADP 90.9
It sure looked strange when the White Sox didn’t tender Rodon a contract after a breakout 2021 season. Did Chicago have inside information about Rodon being damaged goods? But the Giants came to Rodon with a juicy contract, and San Francisco has been so shrewd with pitcher acquisition and development, I’m likely to trust their process.
Verdict
I might have to pass on Rodon in Yahoo rooms, where he’s a top-100 pick. But note you can land him around Pick 125 in the NFBC, making him an appealing value.
Aaron Nola, SP, Phillies — Yahoo ADP 48.5
At first glance, this looks like an open-and-shut case — Nola’s 4.63 ERA last year was comically unlucky, with FIP suggesting a 3.37 number. But a major part of Nola’s bad luck was the messy Philadelphia defense, and if anything, it might be worse this year.
Verdict
It’s common in fantasy sports to love a player but dislike his surroundings, and that’s my issue with Nola. For most of his career he’s had an ERA in the low-3s, which is playable if not an ace (he was better than that run in 2018). But unless his strikeout rate takes a step forward, he’s likely to be sabotaged by his defense again. I’ll need a discount before I take the plunge.
Adam Wainwright, SP, Cardinals — Yahoo ADP 160.5
Wainwright had a stunning comeback season in 2021, getting down ballot Cy Young consideration and fashioning an ERA just over 3. He’s no longer a strikeout source — a 7.3 K/9 is low in today’s game — but his control remains elite, and he’s done a reasonable job keeping the ball in the park.
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Verdict
Wainwright steps into his age-40 season and that will be reason enough for some managers to fade him; the circus leaves town for everyone eventually. But Wainwright is one of the smartest pitchers in the game, and he’s backed by five Gold Glovers in the St. Louis defense. Yahoo’s ADP is 40 picks higher than the NFBC ticket; if you can land Wainwright an eyelash cheaper than his current Yahoo market, you have my permission to roster him.