This past spring, the San Francisco 49ers traded up in the first round, using a great deal of draft capital in the process, for Trey Lance to eventually replace Jimmy Garoppolo.
In his first NFL start, however, it seems the 49ers wanted Lance to be Garoppolo.
The rookie quarterback turned in an uneven performance in Sunday’s loss to the Arizona Cardinals, completing 15 of 29 passes for 192 yards and an interception. Lance was also San Francisco’s leading rusher on the afternoon, with 16 carries for 89 yards. In the results-based business that is the NFL, the loss is perhaps the biggest takeaway from the game, beyond Lance’s performance.
And in a world where success is expected immediately, there are some disappointed San Francisco fans this Monday.
Still, there are positives to take from Lance’s performance, as well as some areas of potential improvement. Let’s dive into both.
Focusing on the positives
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It did not take long for 49ers fans to be treated to some of the athleticism that endeared Lance to the organization this past spring. In fact, it took just the first offensive play of the game. San Francisco opened their first possession with Lance dropping to throw. But when the Cardinals bring pressure off the right edge, Lance is able to climb, escape and pick up the first down with his legs:
Again, you see the ball handling in the pocket, as Lance keeps the left hand glued to the football as he moves in response to pressure. He also keeps his eyes trained downfield, allowing him to locate Deebo Samuel coming across the formation on the over route. Lance makes a good throw on the move here to pick up the first down.
Perhaps two of his best plays of the day came in the second quarter, and both came on third down situations. On this 3rd and 3 early in the second quarter, the 49ers use motion to get into a 4×1 alignment. Lance, however, throws the backside stop route with great timing and fantastic placement to beat the coverage and move the chains:
Were it not for the next play we are going to examine, this might have been my favorite throw of the day from the rookie. Facing 3rd and 11 in their own territory, the 49ers are already down ten and need something to happen with four minutes left in the second quarter. The Cardinals show man coverage pre-snap, but rotate to zone one the play begins. Lance reads the rotation and hits Sanu on an in-cut from the left side. A great read and a great throw, but the ball is dropped.
From the end zone angle you can see the decisiveness from the rookie QB on this read and throw. His footwork is timed up perfectly with the route, and you can see Lance hit his final step in the drop, hitch up and put this throw on the money.
Speaking of currency, for my money Lance’s best throw of the day came in the second half, when he connected with Sanu to move the chains on a fourth-down situation. Facing 4th and 5 at the Arizona 40-yard line, the 49ers keep the offense on the field and put Lance in the shotgun. The Cardinals respond with a pressure look, and indeed come after the rookie. Lance reads it perfectly and hits Sanu on the out route, again taking advantage of leverage:
Lance immediately gets his eyes on Sanu in the slot, who is working against a safety playing deep off the line and with inside leverage. The rookie goes right to his best option, and puts this throw right on Sanu to move the sticks.
As teams show more and more pressure looks pre-snap to try and confuse the offense, QBs need to show that they can beat those alignments post-snap. This is a great example of Lance doing just that.
Now, let’s look at the areas where Lance could stand from some improvement.
Identifying the areas for refinement
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As previously outlined, it did not take long to see the potential Lance offers the 49ers.
It also did not take long to identify an area of potential improvement:
This is another play where Lance does not trust his initial reading of the situation, and it costs him. Facing a 2nd and 16, the 49ers look to pick up yardage through the air. They run a flat/dig concept to the left, and a verticals concept to the right with fullback Kyle Juszczyk coming across on a shallow. Arizona shows pressure but drops into a Tampa-2 look. Lance has a window to hit either the flat, or the dig, or even Juszczyk coming from the backside, but he hesitates, and the pass rush eventually gets home.
That hesitation showed up later in the game, when the 49ers faced a critical 3rd down in the final quarter. As we saw a few times already, the Cardinals show pressure pre-snap. They indeed come after Lance, who looks to Aiyuk on a quick in-cut:
This is the right read, as Lance looks to attack the middle of the field on the in-cut in response to the blitz. He also is attacking a defender trying to cover this route from depth. But the ball comes out a step late and is off-target, and the pass falls incomplete.
Again, this is something that I believe Lance will sort out when the game starts to slow down for him. He’ll learn to speed up the drop and delivery in this situation, and make a quicker throw allowing his receiver more of a window to make the reception.
Where do we go from here?
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Quarterbacks are not built overnight, and perhaps one of the downsides to seeing success early from players like Justin Herbert and Patrick Mahomes is that it resets expectations around the league for other young passers. For every Herbert or Mahomes, there is a Josh Rosen, or a Dwayne Haskins, or a Mitchell Trubisky, or a Paxton Lynch. It is the toughest position in the sport to play, and as a QB you are taking on just just the eleven men on the other side of the line of scrimmage who are trying to put you in the hospital, but a defensive staff who has spent the last week scheming up ways to make you look foolish.
Not easy.
With respect to Lance, the development curve was always going to be different, given the jump from the FCS level to the NFL, and the fact that he played just one season and a showcase game during the COVID-19 year.
Now, he ended up in a great spot with Shanahan, and there are elements of the offense he ran at NDSU that mirror concepts in Shanahan’s system, but the balancing act for the 49ers between a “Garoppolo” offense and a “Lance” offense is going to be tricky. Many of these designs relied heavily on timing and rhythm, which fit well with Garoppolo’s game, but not the rookie quarterback making his first start.
This is a feeling-out process for both player and coach, as Shanahan learns the concepts that his quarterback is best suited to execute right now, and caters the script and the game plan along the way.
But for now, despite the loss, there are positives to take from Lance’s debut. There were some impressive throws, some good reads even against rotated coverages, and the ability to attack leverage, even with precision. There were also some mistakes. But expecting him to be a finished product in his first start is setting one’s mind up for disappointment. The goal is growth over the course of the season. See if he, over times, improves with his reads and ball placement.
Bill Walsh, who knew more about quarterbacks than most of us ever will, maintained that QBs need three years to figure things out.
Lance just finished his first NFL start. Let’s see how he responds.
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