Regardless of whether the Dolphins stick with Tua Tagovailoa or trade for Houston’s Deshaun Watson, this much is clear: The supporting cast on offense isn’t nearly good enough.
A quick look at the top free agents at positions of need on offense, keeping in mind that Miami will have a league-high $76 million in space but $35 million less than that if it acquires Watson without a contract restructure:
▪ Wide receiver: After a regrettable experience with Will Fuller (who received $10.3 million for playing 65 snaps), the Dolphins might be hesitant to spend big money at the position. But they need another impact player to pair with Jaylen Waddle and possibly DeVante Parker, who’s under contract for 2022 at $5.6 million.
“Hey, Miami Dolphins, ya’ll better given $100 million to Chris Godwin this summer,” ESPN’s Marcus Spears proclaimed on Twitter.
Godwin has 98 catches for 1,103 yards and five touchdowns for Tampa Bay but recently underwent MCL and ACL surgery, and his status for the start of the 2022 season is in question.
Beyond Godwin, the other elite unrestricted free agent receiver is Green Bay’s DeVante Adams (117-1,498-11 TDs), but he’s likely to get the franchise tag.
Behind Godwin and Adams: Chicago’s Allen Robinson (36 catches for 388 yards and one touchdown – missed five games) and the Chargers’ Mike Williams (67 catches for 1,027 yards and eight touchdowns).
Other solid impending free agents include New England’s Jakobi Meyers (79 catches, 796 yards), the Jets’ Jamison Crowder (50-431), New Orleans’ Deonte Harris (33-546), Buffalo’s Emmanuel Sanders (42-626), Arizona’s AJ Green (50-825) and Christian Kirk (75-929), the Rams’ Odell Beckham Jr. (42-519), Dallas’ Cedric Wilson (40-483), Green Bay’s Allen Lazard (35-438), KC’s Byron Pringle (37-512); Jacksonville’s DJ Chark (played in only four games before ankle injury) and Atlanta’s Russell Gage (57-644).
Others worth considering to fill out a rotation: Cleveland’s Rashard Higgins, Las Vegas’ Zay Jones, Washington’s Adam Humphries and DeAndre Carter, Detroit’s Kalif Raymond, Green Bay’s Marquez Valdez-Scantling, Tennessee’s Nick Westbrook and the Chargers’ Jalen Guyton.
Fuller, Albert Wilson, Isaiah Ford and Mack Hollins will be free agents. Hollins figures to be re-signed. Besides Jaylen Waddle and Parker, two other receivers are under contract for next season: Allen Hurns ($2.5 million) and Lynn Bowden Jr. ($1 million).
None of the salaries for Parker, Hurns and Bowden are guaranteed for next season. Bowden almost assuredly will be brought to training camp to compete for a job.
▪ Left tackle: The Dolphins need to fill this critical position in free agency, because expending another high draft pick with the hope it will work out seems foolish after Austin Jackson and Liam Eichenberg failed to develop into adequate NFL left tackles and Rob Hunt was moved to right guard.
There could be six solid-to-very good options in free agency: New Orleans’ Terron Armstead, Kansas City’s Orlando Brown, Indianapolis’ Eric Fisher, Washington’s Charles Leno, New England’s Trent Brown and Jacksonville’s Cam Robinson.
UPDATE: Leno has agreed to a contract extension with Washington on Wednesday night, per NFL Network. So he’s off the board.
But Orlando Brown likely won’t make it to free agency and Armstead would cost a bundle if he does.
Armstead, 30, was a Pro Bowler the past three years and is the best of the group but has missed eight games due to injury; Pro Football Focus predicts he will get a three-year, $57.5 million deal.
Trent Brown started at right tackle for New England this season but has considerable experience playing left tackle. He dealt with a calf injury this season and has played in just eight games.
Here’s how PFF ranked those potential free agents among 83 offensive tackles, with their sacks allowed also included: PFF ranks Trent Brown 17th (with one sacks permitted in eight games), Leno 19th (with six sacks allowed; he’s now off the board), Armstead 25th (one sack allowed but has missed those eight games), Orlando Brown 34th (four sacks), Eric Fisher 46th (six sacks), Robinson (48th and just one sack allowed).
By comparison, left tackle Eichenberg has yielded nine sacks and right tackle Jesse Davis eight. The Dolphins must add at least one starting tackle if not two. They could shift Eichenberg to right tackle – and hope he’s competent there – or allow him to compete with Austin Jackson at left guard.
Keeping Eichenberg at left tackle is a possibility if the Dolphins cannot upgrade there, but that would be far from ideal. PFF rates him 80th among 82 tackles.
A right tackle option in free agency would be the Jets’ Morgan Moses, who is ranked 38th among 83 tackles by PFF. He has yielded just three sacks this season.
▪ Center: Sunday’s finale will be only the eighth start at center for Michael Deiter, who missed nine games with a foot injury. Pro Football Focus rates him 29th of 38 centers.
The Dolphins tried to sign David Andrews last spring, but he opted to take less money to stay with New England. And the free agent center class is loaded with quality starters.
That group of unrestricted free agent centers, with their PFF’s rankings, includes Philadelphia’s Jason Kelce (third), the Rams’ Brian Allen (fifth), Tennessee’s Ben Jones (eighth), Tampa Bay’s Ryan Jensen (13th), Carolina’s Matt Paradis (16th), Detroit’s Evan Brown (17th), and Houston’s Justin Britt (18th).
Also available: Jacksonville’s Tyler Shatley (27th) and Seattle’s Kyle Fuller (38th).
Left tackle and receiver take priority in free agency, but center shouldn’t be too far down the list. Offensive line coach Lem Jeanpierre said he doesn’t have enough data to know if Deiter can be a capable center moving forward.
▪ Running back: Despite the Dolphins’ glaring need, finding a back on day two of the draft might be the more prudent approach than spending money on a back in free agency.
But if the Dolphins trade their first- and second-round picks for Watson, then Miami must decide whether to try to upgrade at the position in free agency or simply re-sign Duke Johnson and/or Philip Lindsay to supplement Myles Gaskin, who’s under contract in 2022.
Johnson (213 yards rushing, 4.6 per carry) has made a strong case to return under any circumstances.
The top impending unrestricted free agent backs: Arizona’s James Connor (700 rushing yards, 3.7 per carry, 14 TDs) Tampa Bay’s Leonard Fournette (812 yards, 4.5 per carry, 8 touchdowns), Arizona’s Chase Edmonds (592, 5.1, 2 TDs), Denver’s Melvin Gordon (808 yards, 4.2 per carry, 7 TDs), Atlanta’s Cordarrelle Patterson (607, 4.1, 6 TDs ), the Rams’ Sony Michel (802, 4.3, 4 TDs), KC’s Darrel Williams (541, 3.9, 6 TDs) and the Colts’ Marlon Mack (limited to six games by injury; just 3.6 per carry).
Among others set for unrestricted free agency: Seattle’s Rashaad Penny, Baltimore’s DeVonta Freeman and Latavius Murray, Tampa Bay’s Ronald Jones, Seattle’s Alex Collins and the Jets’ Tevin Coleman. The Dolphins’ Salvon Ahmed is an exclusive rights free agent.
Bottom line: Last spring, the Dolphins were reluctant to spend much in free agency after experiencing buyer’s remorse over their 2020 spending spree.
They don’t have the luxury of taking a similar approach this spring because there are too many needs to fill through the draft alone, especially if Miami’s top two picks are part of a trade package for Watson. And even if Miami clogs its cap with Watson, there are realistic ways to create enough cap space to augment the offense.
NEWS NOTE
▪ Defensive end Emmanuel Ogbah (quad), receiver Preston Williams (illness) and defensive tackle John Jenkins (illness) were limited in Wednesday’s practice. Receiver DeVante Parker was given a veteran’s rest day.
Noah Igbinoghene and Sheldrick Redwine remain on the COVID-19 list.
Here’s my Wednesday piece with news from Brian Flores’ news conference, a critical assistant coach and more.