The Eastern Conference’s fourth-seeded Philadelphia 76ers and fifth-seeded Toronto Raptors meet in the first round of the 2022 NBA playoffs. Toronto won the last playoff meeting between the two teams in 2019.
More Yahoo Sports NBA first-round playoff previews:
(2) Boston Celtics vs. (7) Brooklyn Nets
(3) Milwaukee Bucks vs. (6) Chicago Bulls
(2) Memphis Grizzlies vs. (7) Minnesota Timberwolves
(3) Golden State Warriors vs. (6) Denver Nuggets
(4) Dallas Mavericks vs. (5) Utah Jazz
How they got here
Philadelphia 76ers (51-31)
Ben Simmons refused to play for the Sixers following last year’s embarrassing second-round playoff exit, so they spent the first two months of this season trying to extract anything of value from the three-time All-Star, ultimately trading him, Seth Curry, Andre Drummond and two first-round picks to the Brooklyn Nets for one-time MVP James Harden. The deal robbed them of some depth, and Harden has not met expectations.
All the while, Joel Embiid submitted an MVP-caliber season, becoming the first center to win the scoring title (30.6 points per game) since Shaquille O’Neal in 2000. He added 11.7 rebounds, 4.7 assists a night. The Sixers are really good when Embiid is on the floor and really bad when he is not, even after the trade.
The emergence of second-year guard Tyrese Maxey helped offset the loss of Simmons’ playmaking early in the season, and he is a stellar secondary creator alongside Harden. Third-year wing Matisse Thybulle will make his second All-Defensive team this year. Neither young player could help Embiid push the Sixers to a top-10 rating on either side of the ball. Philadelphia finished 11th in offensive rating and 12th on defense. (Thybulle also does not meet Toronto’s COVID-19 vaccine mandate and will be unavailable for road games.)
On paper, the combination of Harden and Embiid should form a contender, but past playoff performance remains a question for both. How Embiid holds up for four quarters a game and whether or not Harden can find his efficiency in the space Embiid provides for him will determine how competitive the Sixers really are.
Toronto Raptors (48-34)
Last season was a nightmare for the Raptors, who were forced to play in Tampa during the pandemic. They lost Kyle Lowry over the summer and still reverted to the recipe that made them a hard playoff out in 2020.
Toronto was 23-23 midway through the season, narrowly clinging to a play-in tournament berth, before an eight-game win streak and an elite defensive unit sent them surging up the Eastern Conference standings.
Pascal Siakam rediscovered his All-NBA talent. Scottie Barnes is a serious Rookie of the Year contender. The trade deadline addition of Thaddeus Young bolstered the versatility that makes Toronto so special. The Raptors can relentlessly pummel teams with a host of 6-foot-8 athletes around All-Star snub Fred VanVleet.
Nobody in particular will scare opponents in late-game situations, and their middling offense is a reflection of that, but collectively they can clamp down on defense and find a way. Their 26 wins in games within five points in either direction in the last five minutes are second only to the championship favorite Phoenix Suns.
Head to head
The Raptors won their season series against the Sixers, 3-1.
Neither Embiid nor Siakam played in the Raptors’ 115-109 win on Nov. 11, and practically the entire Toronto roster was either coming or going from health and safety protocols in the Sixers’ 114-109 win on Dec. 28. The Raptors were also undermanned in their two more recent meetings since late March and still won both.
Siakam, VanVleet and Gary Trent Jr. all registered 30-point games against the Sixers this season, and Chris Boucher nearly joined them with 28 points opposite Embiid in their late-December contest. Meanwhile, their defense hounded Harden in their last two meetings, holding him to a combined 30 points (8-24 FG, 1-8 3P).
Closing lineups
Philadelphia 76ers
Sixers coach Doc Rivers trusts Maxey and Tobias Harris with Harden and Embiid in late-game situations. The fifth spot is situational, vacillating between Thybulle’s defense and Georges Niang‘s offense — with a smattering of Danny Green‘s veteran savvy and Furkan Korkmaz‘s hot hand. The core four closers and Thybulle are outscoring opponents by 20.3 points per 100 possessions in non-garbage minutes. That figure drops to +2.9 with Niang in a much smaller sample size, which is concerning without Thybulle on the road.
Toronto Raptors
The Raptors have often closed games with VanVleet, Trent, Siakam, Barnes and OG Anunoby when healthy — their most-used lineup (+1.8 points per 100 possessions). However, Embiid’s presence calls for a more traditional big, so coach Nick Nurse has turned to Precious Achiuwa and Chris Boucher against the 76ers.
Matchup to watch
Embiid is the best player in the series by a wide margin. His production will ultimately decide the outcome. He averaged 29 points (47/20/84 shooting splits), 11.3 rebounds and 2.7 assists against Toronto this season, not as dominant as you might expect opposite a team with nobody on the roster taller than 6-9.
Achiuwa’s 12 minutes over two games was the most time anyone on the Raptors spent guarding Embiid, and he held up well, holding the Sixers star to 9-for-26 shooting, per the NBA’s tracking data. Boucher and Khem Birch enjoyed less success in shorter bursts. The assignment fell to Siakam and Barnes in smaller lineups, so Embiid’s performance will dictate how often Nurse employs the lineup he trusted most often.
Toronto will also be unafraid to double team Embiid in non-traditional defenses if Harden cannot make them pay, and that has worn on the 7-footer historically. For as much grief as Simmons got for his series against the Atlanta Hawks last season, Embiid failed to shoot 40% in fourth quarters for the conference semifinals. He was just as limited in late-game situations when the Sixers and Raptors met in the 2019 second round.
Philadelphia 76ers (-200)
Toronto Raptors (+165)
Prediction
Sixers in seven.
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Ben Rohrbach is a staff writer for Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at rohrbach_ben@yahoo.com or follow him on Twitter! Follow @brohrbach