Jan. 7—There will be lots of goodbyes for the Vikings on Sunday. And some will be permanent.
The Vikings (7-9) play their season finale against Chicago at U.S. Bank Stadium with little of significance at stake. They have been eliminated from the playoffs and are assured of a second straight losing season.
“We know this team won’t look the same next year,” cornerback Patrick Peterson said.
The changes could be drastic. Head coach Mike Zimmer might not be back for a ninth season in 2022, and general manager Rick Spielman also might not return. Quarterback Kirk Cousins and some other notable players could play their last game in purple.
Cousins said he wants to be a “Minnesota Viking for the rest of my career.” But that might not happen because of his cap-eating contract.
Cousins is due to make a fully guaranteed $35 million in 2022 with a whopping salary-cap number of $45 million. With the cap set to be $208.2 million, Cousins would take up 21.6 percent of that.
“I don’t think they could trade him with another team picking up all that salary,” said salary-cap analyst Jason Fitzgerald, who runs the website OvertheCap.com. “But they could probably trade him if they were to pay $10 million of that contract, and then they would still save money.”
With Cousins signing a three-year, $84 million contract as a free agent in March 2018 and then a two-year, $66 million extension in March 2020, the Vikings have missed the playoffs in three of his four seasons with the team. Because he has taken up so much of the cap and the Vikings have a number of other big contracts, that has hampered their ability to spend money for other players. And it affected matters even more after the coronavirus pandemic hit and the cap became lower than expected.
On offense, the Vikings have had their moments as Cousins generally has put up good numbers. And Minnesota has benefitted by getting some steals in the draft, especially running back Dalvin Cook in the second round in 2017 and wide receiver Justin Jefferson with the No. 22 pick in the first round in 2020. But the lack of cap room has made it difficult for the Vikings to maintain their once-potent defense.
In 2017, Minnesota led the NFL in scoring defense and total defense en route to the NFC Championship Game. But some of the key defensive players off that team began to show age or had contracts that were too big to keep around, and the Vikings haven’t always had the cap room to find suitable replacements.
When the Vikings slipped to 7-9 in 2020 with a defense that was ranked 27th in the NFL, Zimmer called it the “worst defense” he has had in two decades as a coordinator and head coach. Well, this season, the defense has been even worse, slipping to 31st in the league.
“You’re disappointed because that hasn’t been us,” said Andre Patterson, who is in his second season as co-defensive coordinator and has been the defensive line coach since Zimmer arrived in 2014. “We’ve been one of the better defensive teams in the league since I’ve been here, so that hasn’t been us. But you are what the numbers say you are.”
Considering Zimmer calls the defensive plays, that doesn’t exactly help his chances of sticking around. But Peterson, who has said he wants Zimmer to return, said players missing games because of injuries and while on the COVID-19 reserve list has to be taken into consideration for the defensive struggles.
Peterson pointed to his missing four games, defensive end Danielle Hunter being lost for the season after seven games, linebacker Anthony Barr sitting out six games, nose tackle Michael Pierce being out for eight and safety Harrison Smith for two.
“We never really had a consistent lineup,” Peterson said. But he added, “We have to make sure that the next guy up, the next-man mentality, is something that lives strong in every locker room.”
The Vikings indeed have had significant injuries on both sides of the ball and also have had 25 different players go from the 53-man roster to the COVID list this season. But other teams have had similar issues and coped with them better than the Vikings.
What ultimately doomed the Vikings was their inability to win close games. They are 6-8 in games decided by eight points or fewer and 2-5 in games decided by four points or fewer. Blame that on both the offense and defense.
The defense wilted too often late in games. And the offense, under first-year coordinator Klint Kubiak, too often faltered as games went on, blowing multiple leads in the final moments.
“I agree that consistency would be something we’d want to improve on,” Kubiak said of the offense. “Some really good games and some games that we want back.”
The Vikings were No. 4 in the NFL in total offense in 2020 under Kubiak’s father, Gary Kubiak, their highest ranking since 2004. They did get up to No. 3 in 2021 around midseason before falling back. They now are No. 12.
It didn’t help that late in the season that Cousins and Cook missed games while on the COVID list, Cook sat out another game with a shoulder injury and wide receiver Adam Thielen suffered a serious ankle injury in Week 13 that eventually required season-ending surgery. Doing what he could to keep the Vikings afloat has been Jefferson, the no-brainer team MVP with 103 catches so far for 1,509 yards.
Jefferson and Cook both expressed frustration at missing the playoffs for a second straight season, with Jefferson saying, “We should have one of the best records in league.” With the talent the Vikings have, Cook believes they can have success by keeping much of the same cast intact.
“My head coach and everything, I’ve been with these people five years, fighting and trying to win games, lost games, good times, bad times,” Cook said. “I wouldn’t want to go to war with nobody else but these people. … You see the weapons we got.”
The futures of Zimmer and Spielman will play a significant role in which players return in 2022. But regardless of who’s running the show, the Vikings must shed some salaries by the March 16 start of the new league year. Once the Vikings sign some young players to futures deals shortly after the season, Fitzgerald said they will be about $12 million over the salary cap. And since Cousins can’t be traded until after the start of the new league year, he couldn’t be used to immediately dump any salary.
Cutting salary could start with releasing Hunter, a two-time Pro Bowl selection who missed all of 2020 with a neck injury and much of this season with a torn pectoral muscle. Hunter, who had his contract restructured last June at his request, is due an $18 million roster bonus on the fifth day of the new league year and is on the books now for a cap number of $26.12 million.
“I would guess that he’ll get cut,” Fitzgerald said. “But they could lower his cap number (for 2022) by converting the $18 million to a signing bonus and then spreading it out over next year and then to the two voidable years (on his contract), and that would lower his cap number by $13.5 million.”
The Vikings also could look to work out a restructured deal with Hunter.
Smith, who turns 33 on Feb. 2, is due an $8 million roster bonus on the third day of the league year, and his base salary of $2.95 million would become guaranteed that day for a total of $10.95 million. It would be highly unlikely that Smith, recently named to his sixth Pro Bowl, is released, but Fitzgerald said he doesn’t believe a trade would be out of the question if there’s a new general manager.
“So much is going to depend on who the general manager is because a new general manager is not going to have the personal relationship with some of these players the way Spielman does with Hunter, Cousins, Smith and Thielen,” Fitzgerald said.
Thielen, who turns 32 in August, is on the books in 2022 for a cap number of $16.945 million. While it seems likely he will be back with the Vikings in 2022, it’s possible he could have his contract restructured.
Fitzgerald said one possible way to save $6.5 million of cap room would be to release Pierce, whose $7.9 million base salary for 2022 becomes guaranteed on the third day of the new league year. Pierce, who opted out of the 2021 season due to the pandemic and his history of asthma, has played in only eight of 32 possible Vikings games since signing with the team in March 2020. And Armon Watts, who played well when Pierce was out this season, could be a replacement.
When it comes to retaining free agents, it remains to be seen how much money the Vikings will want to spend. They are in line to have 19 unrestricted free agents in addition to restricted free agent Greg Joseph.
After agreeing last spring to take a pay cut from $12.9 million to $10 million to avoid being released, Barr becomes a free agent. Fitzgerald expects the market value for Barr, who turns 30 in March, to be about $5 million in 2022. It’s possible Barr will play his last game for the Vikings on Sunday, especially if Zimmer, the only NFL coach he has had, is fired.
Peterson, who turns 32 in July and is playing on a one-year, $8 million deal, said he wants to return. Fitzgerald believes his market value is also about $5 million.
Younger free agents the Vikings figure to want to retain include tight end Tyler Conklin, guard-center Mason Cole and safety Xavier Woods. Fitzgerald said Conklin, who made $920,000 in 2021, could command $6 million to $8 million a year, and Cole, who made $2.15 million in 2021, could get about $4 million. Fitzgerald said Woods’ value is harder to predict since safety is a “tricky” position with salaries, but that he definitely would be in line for a raise over his one-year, $1.75 million deal in 2021.
Put it all together, and there could be big changes in store for the Vikings. Cook, who is all but certain to be back, has little idea what the cast around him will look like.
“Whatever the future holds for everybody, I can’t picture it,” he said. “I don’t know what’s going to happen.”
VIKINGS FREE AGENTS
Vikings players in line to become free agents in March. All will be unrestricted unless noted:
Linebacker Anthony Barr
Cornerback Patrick Peterson
Tight end Tyler Conklin
Defensive lineman Sheldon Richardson
Defensive end Everson Griffen
Safety Xavier Woods
Offensive lineman Mason Cole
Linebacker Nick Vigil
Cornerback Mackensie Alexander
Quarterback Sean Mannion
Wide receiver Dede Westbrook
Tight end Chris Herndon
Wide receiver Chad Beebe
Tackle Rashod Hill
Punter Jordan Berry
Tackle Dakota Dozier
Running back Wayne Gallman
Defensive end Tashawn Bower
Tight end Luke Stocker
Kicker Greg Joseph (restricted)