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Well that was a fun All-Star Break. In 2020, the All-Star Break festivities were cancelled due to COVID-19. So to see the stadium packed with excited fans and star players from all around the league hanging out was a joy to witness. The American League won the All-Star game for the 8th season in a row and are proving to be the league that holds more talent as of late. More than that, Pete Alonso dominated in the Home Run Derby and Juan Soto seemingly used the opportunity to find his HR swing again. All in all, fans, players, and management alike needed this break, but now we’re back to the grind.
With about ten weeks of fantasy baseball left, we’re slowly approaching the home stretch. Recently, young studs Jarred Kelenic, Jarren Duran, and Vidal Bruján were called up and fantasy managers everywhere are hoping they start producing right away. More prospects will be called up before the season ends and there will also be more impact players to target off the waiver wire. In this week’s piece, I’ll once again break down a handful of names you shouldn’t overlook when you’re scouring the waiver wire. Baseball is back, baby!
Points League Options
(players rostered in under 50% of ESPN leagues)
Cole Irvin SP/RP, Athletics (44% rostered)
As an MLB starting pitcher, you don’t always have to have overpowering stuff to be consistently successful. Kyle Hendricks is arguably *the* modern day example of this type of pitcher. It wouldn’t be surprising — at least for me — to see Cole Irvin follow in his footsteps as his career progresses. This isn’t me saying Irvin will be as good as Hendricks one day, but he has the chance to find consistent success similarly to how Hendricks has all these years: regularly demonstrating solid command and control.
Irvin was drafted in the 5th round of the 2016 MLB Draft by the Philadelphia Phillies. As a minor leaguer, he never had a strikeout rate greater than 20.5% in any season, but he also never had a walk rate greater than 6.9% in any season. He finished his minor league career with a rock solid 3.07 ERA (3.69 FIP) and 13.8% K-BB over 452.0 innings pitched. While his results got worse as he reached the higher levels of the minors, his long-term floor as a back of the rotation arm remained sturdy given his command and control skills.
When on the mound, Irvin utilizes a low spin, low-90s four-seam fastball and low-90s sinker, a changeup, a slider, and a curveball. He made his MLB debut in 2019 and immediately looked like a very mediocre pitcher. While he continued to limit walks utilizing his solid control skills, his command was spotty. Consequently, his overall results between 2019-2020 were rather unpleasant. Fortunately, it appears he’s figured out how to consistently locate his pitches against MLB bats so far in 2021. For the remainder of the season, I expect Irvin to be a useful source of starting pitching depth for any points league roster. There’s almost no upside here, but Irvin is fully capable of continuing to be fantasy relevant during the second half of the season.
Nate Lowe 1B, Rangers (47% rostered)
He’s a streaky hitter, but there’s plenty of pop in Nate Lowe’s bat. As a former 13th round draft pick, Lowe has had something to prove his entire professional career. Thankfully, Lowe quickly proved he had the tools to eventually be a solid 1B/DH at the MLB level. Early in his minor league career, he consistently had a high batting average while drawing walks at a high rate. Additionally, he limited his strikeout rate and showcased the ability to hit the ball to all fields, despite a ground ball rate that was a tad bit high. Upon his arrival to Triple-A in 2018, Lowe continued to hit for power, but he saw his batting average and strikeout rate take a hit. This isn’t surprising given that at that point, he was at the highest level of the minors and one step away from playing in the big leagues.
Lowe ended up making his MLB debut in 2019 and he earned a .263/.325/.454 slash line with seven home runs over 152 at-bats. His quality of contact supported this early career power display (114.3 max exit velocity, 10.6% barrel rate, 45.2% hard hit rate) and it was clear that power would be Lowe’s most valuable tool during his time as a major leaguer. Fast-forward to 2021 and Lowe has .245/.345/.420 career slash line with a 11.8% walk rate, a 28.7% strikeout rate, and 23 home runs over 540 at-bats. He’s hit both left-handed pitching and right-handed pitching well while displaying the ability to hit for power and batting average against all types of pitches.
However, Lowe’s Achilles’ heel so far in his MLB career is the fact that he struggles to make contact against hard pitches thrown above the top of the pants. He makes plenty of contact against hard pitches below the belt, but hard pitches high in the zone give him a lot of trouble. In addition to this, he has a whiff% greater than 27.0% against hard pitches in every season since 2019. As a major leaguer, his production against hard pitches has been inconsistent, which makes sense given his aforementioned struggles against high hard pitches. He’s never had great bat speed and as a result, his chances of making contact against these high spin, mid-high 90s hard pitches that are being thrown high in the zone are lessened. All in all, while Lowe isn’t perfect, his raw power and ability to draw walks will allow him to maintain fantasy relevancy for the rest of the season.
Austin Gomber SP/RP, Rockies (35% rostered)
Gomber is currently on the 10-day injured list due to right forearm tightness. He went on the injured list on June 20th, but began his rehab assignment on July 16th, a good indication that he’ll be returning to the rotation soon. Gomber was drafted in the 4th round of the 2014 MLB Draft by the St. Louis Cardinals. Early in his professional career, Gomber was recognized for his natural pitchability and understanding of how to use his arsenal to the best of his ability. He was always an arm who did not possess a high ceiling, but there’s also always been hope that he’d one day be a serviceable big league starter. At the conclusion of his minor league career, he had earned a 2.98 ERA (3.58 FIP) and 16.6% K-BB over 574.0 innings pitched. Some of his best minor league performances came in the upper levels of the minors, a good sign that Gomber was truly growing as a starting pitcher.
He made his MLB debut in June 2018 as a relief pitcher and as a starter that year, he was serviceable (4.26 ERA, 12.2% K-BB over 57.0 innings pitched). Then, in the trade that sent star third baseman Nolan Arenado to St. Louis, Gomber was dealt to Colorado. Over 78.1 innings pitched this season, Gomber is having the best season of his MLB career while also calling the most hitter-friendly ballpark in baseball home. He’s sporting a career high 16.7% K-BB as both his strikeout rate and walk rate have improved and he’s continued to limit hard contact.
On the mound, Gomber utilizes a low spin, low-mid 90s four-seam fastball, a slider, a changeup, and a curveball. So far this year, his slider, changeup, and curveball all have a whiff% greater than 32.0%. Beyond that, he’s been limiting contact and hard contact with each of his secondary pitches despite the fact that each of them has a zone rate greater than 46.0%. He’s been pounding the zone with his entire arsenal and for the most part, batters haven’t been able to consistently touch his secondary pitches. In fact, since May 1st (55.1 innings pitched), Gomber is sporting a very impressive 53:4 K:BB while continuing to limit contact and induce ground balls at a high rate. He was likely overperforming to a certain degree before his injury, but Gomber has the tools to help your fantasy team down the stretch. Stash him on your injured list if you have the space, Gomber’s slowly becoming the best version of himself at age-27.
Joey Votto 1B, Reds (40% rostered)
Raise your hand if you predicted that Joey Votto would be sporting career best quality of contact metrics at age-37. No one? I don’t blame you, I didn’t see it coming either. Over 162 batted ball events this season, Votto has a career high 113.6 mph max exit velocity, 13.0% barrel rate, and 48.8% hard hit rate. In his 15th MLB season (2,453 career batted ball events), Votto has hit the hardest ball of his career (113.6 mph). Don’t get me wrong, Votto has always been able to hit for power, as he’s hit 24 or more home runs in 8 of his 15 seasons. However, now his power upside is fully supported by truly high-end quality of contact metrics.
Over 222 at-bats, Votto has earned a .252/.344/.455 slash line with 11 home runs. Now, these improvements to his quality of contact are clear, but what’s fueling them? To put it simply, Votto has been absolutely destroying hard pitches this year. He has a career high .621 xSLG and 94.3 mph average exit velocity against hard pitches, along with ten home runs. He’s been barreling them more than ever and the results have been nothing but encouraging. At this stage in his career, it seems like Votto still has plenty left in the tank. If he can stay healthy for the rest of the season, he can easily hit 20+ home runs with an overall slash line around .275/.360/.465. He’s a rock solid addition to any points league roster.
David Price SP/RP, Dodgers (26% rostered)
Starting pitcher David Price is back! With Trevor Bauer dealing with off the field issues and Clayton Kershaw on the injured list with a forearm injury, the Dodgers’ starting pitching depth is being tested. On February 4th, 2020, Price was acquired by the Dodgers in the three-team trade that saw Kenta Maeda go to Minnesota, Alex Verdugo and Jeter Downs to Boston, and of course, Mookie Betts to LA. Price then opted out of playing in the 2020 sample size and ended up making his Dodgers debut on April 2nd of this season at Colorado.
At age-35, his stuff isn’t nearly as effective as it used to be, but it’s still very much effective in a general sense. His four-seam fastball has been sitting mid-90s and as a whole, he’s not generating as many whiffs as he has in the past — but this might be intentional. His four-seamer, sinker, and cutter are all sporting career high zone rates, indicating he’s been pounding the strike zone with his hard pitches more than ever. And with him being used primarily as a relief pitcher this season, his decision to pound the zone with his hard pitches makes too much sense. As a relief pitcher, you just want to get through the inning and it appears Price has embraced his role this season with a pitch-to-contact mindset. More than that, there’s a chance that Price sticks with this mentality as a starting pitcher. So far this season, he has a 3.23 ERA (3.62 SIERA) and 31:9 K:BB over 30.2 innings pitched. If he has a solid outing at Colorado on July 18th, his ownership will rise by a good amount, so your best bet might be to go grab him once you’re finished reading this sentence if you want to secure him.
Jarren Duran OF, Red Sox (34% rostered)
I believe that Duran should strongly consider changing his middle name to ‘exceeding expectations’. He was drafted 220th overall in the 2018 MLB Draft by the Boston Red Sox and right out of the gate, he looked like a steal. Over his first 283 professional at-bats playing between Low-A and Single-A, he earned a .357/.394/.516 slash line with 28 extra base hits (three home runs) and he had a 71.0% steal percentage (24/34). At this point, his willingness, and ability, to be aggressive on the base paths and his ability to consistently put the ball in play were evident. Fast-forward to this past offseason and in my opinion, Duran’s ceiling seemed like that of a 20 home run, 20+ stolen base threat who would have a solid batting average and average to below average on-base percentage at his peak. Well, it’s possible I underestimated him.
He hit eight home runs over his first 802 career minor league at-bats. Over 189 at-bats in Triple-A this season, he hit 15 home runs. It’s possible Duran’s power ceiling is closer to 25 home runs, which would make him an annual high-end category league asset. In points leagues, there’s a chance his strikeout rate is high to start his MLB career, but given his blossoming power, he could have several avenues to earning points for your fantasy teams every time plays very soon. His ownership% likely rose as I was typing this blurb, so go get yourself some shares of Duran before it’s too late.
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Deep Points League Options
(players rostered in under 10% of ESPN leagues)
Pete Fairbanks RP, Rays (9% rostered)
After spending about a month on the injured list earlier this season, Fairbanks has a 3.28 ERA (3.77 SIERA) and 29:12 K:BB since returning from the injured list on May 7th (24.2 innings pitched). Armed with a high spin, high-90s four-seam fastball that can blow away any hitter and a slider that has great vertical drop and can touch 90 mph, Fairbanks clearly has special stuff. However, he still has yet to demonstrate the ability to consistently command these above average pitches. If he could, we’d likely be looking at one of the best closers in baseball.
Even with below average-average command, Fairbanks is capable of performing well in high leverage situations. So far this season, he has four saves and nine holds over 27.1 innings pitched. He’s currently on a 5.1 innings pitched scoreless streak and he has a 6:0 K:BB over this time span. Given his stuff and experience in high leverage situations, it wouldn’t surprise me at all to see Fairbanks lead the Rays in saves over the second half of the season. If you’ve been searching for a cheap relief pitcher who has upside, Fairbanks sounds like he could be your guy.
Oscar Mercado OF, Indians (2% rostered)
Would you believe me if I said that Oscar Mercado had an ADP around 130th overall last Spring before COVID-19 postponed Opening Day? Sometimes, we’re too quick to write off a player because of a small sample size. Maybe that’s the case with Mercado, maybe not. Regardless, the 26-year-old certainly possesses the tools to help most fantasy rosters.
Over 438 at-bats in his 2019 — his rookie season — he earned a .269/.318/.443 slash line with 15 home runs and 15 stolen bases. His sprint speed was in the 97th percentile at the time and he was a stolen base monster in the minor leagues, so the steals aren’t fluky by any means. Beyond this, he demonstrated the ability to be aggressive against pitches in the zone (77.7% zone swing rate) and make contact against a lot of those pitches (89.9% zone contact rate). This helps support the 15 home runs he hit despite the fact that his quality of contact metrics were below average. With Eddie Rosario and Josh Naylor on the injured list, Mercado has the chance to earn regular playing time for the foreseeable future. Given the fact that he’s free in the vast majority of fantasy leagues and has several avenues to providing fantasy value, he’s well worth an add in deeper leagues.