ARLINGTON, Texas — If NFL fans were looking for an ugly win on Sunday, the Dallas Cowboys made sure to deliver.
The Cowboys, whom Vegas projected as 17.5-point favorites per BetMGM, trailed the Houston Texas for more than 29 of the 30 minutes after halftime. Then, after a turnover-laden day, quarterback Dak Prescott directed a clinical 11-play, 98-yard drive to set up running back Ezekiel Elliott’s 2-yard touchdown with 41 seconds left and escape with a 27-23 victory.
It’s fair to ask where that rhythmic Cowboys offense was for almost the entirety of Sunday’s near-debacle. But what’s undisputable: The Cowboys earned their 10th win of the season, keeping their slim NFC East title hopes alive.
With the Philadelphia Eagles beating the New York Giants, Dallas needed this win more than the Texans’ one-win resume indicated.
The game-winning drive showcased what Dallas is capable of: Prescott found a diving receiver Noah Brown near the right sideline, and a traffic-squeezed tight end Dalton Schultz for up the middle of the field, for 18 yards a pop on consecutive throws. Receiver CeeDee Lamb contributed the drive. Prescott twice used his legs, including to gain 6 yards on third-and-1. And Elliott scored, the array of Cowboys’ weapons on display.
But lest a fan just tuned in for that drive, let’s be clear: The Cowboys, and particularly their offense, did not resemble that well-oiled machine vs. the Texans. Even as Houston rested their top cornerback and top two receivers, they were more effective most of the day. The Cowboys would probably describe their play as sloppy.
Because in the first quarter, Cowboys returner KaVontae Turpin muffed a fair catch on a punt in the first quarter to gift the Texans a 24-yard field. Six plays later, Houston’s talented rookie running back Dameon Pierce burst up the middle of a goal-line stand for the score.
In the second quarter, an erratic day for the Cowboys’ passing game was on full display. Dak Prescott’s pass bounced off the fingertips of receiver Noah Brown before landing in the hands of Texans cornerback Tremon Smith.
This time, Houston receiver Amari Rodgers–who had not scored prior in 27 career games prior–caught a 28-yard touchdown from quarterback Jeff Driskel, the Texans’ apparent red zone quarterback of the day.
Two Cowboys turnovers, two Houston touchdowns off the miscues.
In the third quarter, Dallas’ defense tried to turn the tables. Safety Donovan Wilson stripped Pierce as he slammed him to the ground, cornerback Trevon Diggs–Dallas’ one starting corning who has not suffered a season-ending injury–recovering the loose ball and returning it 17 yards.
Dallas’ offense needed to advance merely 28 yards to retake the lead. They made it 27 before turning the ball over on downs. The Texans soon improved to 17 points off turnovers.
Only in the fourth quarter, when–you guessed it! –the Cowboys coughed up yet another ball did their defense bail them out and their offense settle at last. Prescott, hit by a rusher on his right side, threw a costly interception that set up Houston for a 4-yard field. Dallas’ defense mounted a goal-line stand, before the offense marched 98 yards in 2 minutes, 39 seconds.
The Cowboys defense held off intercepting a Hail Mary with 14 seconds to play.
The stakes the Cowboys nearly fumbled were deceptively high Dallas entered the day with an 18% chance at the division title, and thus a guaranteed home playoff game, per The New York Times’ NFL playoff simulator. A loss to the Texans paired with an Eagles victory would have dropped their odds to a mere 3%. Instead, they’re hanging on at 11%.
Dallas will have much to take away from this game, including how Houston’s defense managed to get hands on 11 Dak Prescott passes.
The team would be wide revisit a message head coach Mike McCarthy emphasized in team meetings this week, via a video clip featuring mouse and cheese.
The message: Don’t eat the cheese.
In other words: Don’t get too high. Don’t assume you’ll win. Don’t assume the more talented team will always reach victory.
Sunday, the Cowboys edged out a win against a far less talented team. To reach the potential they believe they’re capable of, they’ll need far more.
This story will be updated.