Could UCF joining the Big 12 hurt the Gators?

With UCF being one of the expected teams to join the Big 12, some Florida fans are asking how the move will affect the Gators. The Athletic’s G. Allan Taylor tackled the question to lead this week’s mailbag and outlined two very different possible outcomes.

The best-case scenario outlined for UCF should be frightening for Gators fans but it’s unlikely to happen. Taylor describes a world where the Knights become College Football Playoff regulars thanks to the golden ticket that is entering Power 5. If that happens and Florida isn’t battling alongside them in the CFP, it would be a quick and major power shift within the state.

The flip side of the coin presented has the Big 12 losing its Power 5 shine thanks to Texas and Oklahoma departing and everything flops. While this is obviously ideal from a competition standpoint for the Gators, this outcome also seems unlikely. UCF and Cincinnati have already proven to some degree that they can reach a major bowl game without the Power 5 shine.

So, the answer is likely somewhere in the middle of the two extreme ends of the spectrum presented. As a UCF alumnus, I fully expect to hear from SEC fans that a second-place finish to Alabama overrules a Big 12 Championship when it comes to CFP placement. I expect it because it will be true some years, but the real impact on Florida will come in the years that argument is hollow.

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A more realistic scenario for Gators fans to consider is one where the two schools face off more often. Bowl game matchups are now more likely as UCF won’t have to claw and scratch for a bid, and the schools will faceoff in the regular season in 2024.

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Florida dropping any of those games immediately becomes recruitment fodder, and that’s the biggest threat UCF’s move to the Big 12 presents the Gators. Three-star offensive lineman Leyton Nelson chose the Knights over the Gators last month. Florida already has to compete with Florida State and Miami for top in-state prospects, so adding UCF to the list would make the job even harder.

While UCF isn’t threatening to overtake Florida as the top college football destination in the state, it is beginning to level the playing field when it comes to recruitment.

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