College Football Playoff Rankings Projection

The 12th week of college football was a week of extremes. Two top 10 teams fell but neither were favored and one lost to a higher ranked team, so upsets isn’t the right word but a shakeup is certainly coming to the College Football Playoff rankings when they’re released Tuesday night.

After Ohio State blew out Michigan State, Utah routed Oregon, and a surprisingly exciting game between No. 2 Alabama and No. 24 Arkansas, how will the new CFP rankings look?

Here is our best guess as to what the fourth set of rankings will look like:

25-21:

Credit: Thomas Shea-USA TODAY Sports

25. Mississippi State (7-4)
24. Arkansas (7-4)
23. Houston (10-1)
22. UTSA (11-0)
21. NC State (8-3)

Arkansas falls slightly after giving Alabama a test but ultimately falling. NC State falls not because of winning against Syracuse but because of what a team previously behind them did to a top-four team. Cincinnati leaves the weekend thrilled not just because of a dominating win but because future opponent Houston won easily as well.

20-16:

Credit: Jeffrey Swinger-USA TODAY Sports

20. San Diego State (10-1)
19. Wake Forest (9-2)
18. Pitt (9-2)
17. Iowa (9-2)
16. Utah (8-3)

How far will Utah climb after routing Oregon? The Utes still have three losses so perhaps my expectation for their climb was a bit much but it was significantly more impressive than any win the those immediately ahead of them did this weekend.

15-11:

Credit: Jeffrey Swinger-USA TODAY Sports

15. Texas A&M (8-3)
14. Wisconsin (8-3)
13. BYU (9-2)
12. Michigan State (9-2)
11. Oregon (9-2)

How far will Oregon and Michigan State both fall after blowout losses on Saturday? I’d be surprised if either remained in the top-10 after getting out of the building Saturday night.

10. Oklahoma

USA TODAY NETWORK

10. Oklahoma (10-1)

Oklahoma bounced back from their loss at Baylor to beating Iowa State 28-21. The Sooners need to beat Oklahoma State twice in two weeks now but remain alive for now in the CFP race.

9. Ole Miss

Credit: Matt Bush-USA TODAY Sports

No. 9 Ole Miss (9-2)

The committee isn’t going to rank Oklahoma ahead of Baylor but who will they rank higher between Ole Miss and Oklahoma? Ole Miss has one more loss but Oklahoma didn’t do enough against Iowa State to move past Ole Miss.

8. Baylor

Credit: Scott Sewell-USA TODAY Sports

8. Baylor (9-2)

Credit to Baylor for following up their success in upsetting Oklahoma last week by going on the road to Kansas State and controlling the game in a defeat of what is always a pesky Wildcats squad.

7. Oklahoma State

Credit: Michael C. Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

7. Oklahoma State (10-1)

Oklahoma State’s defense was again dominant at Texas Tech. The Cowboys now will have to beat Oklahoma twice the next two weeks to have a shot at the CFP.

6. Notre Dame

Credit: Matt Cashore-USA TODAY Sports

6. Notre Dame (10-1)

Notre Dame’s 55-0 win over Georgia Tech was its biggest shutout victory in 25 years. The Irish have won six in a row and are all of a sudden knocking on the CFP’s door.

5. Michigan

Credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports

5. Michigan (10-1)

Michigan had no problems in blowing out Maryland. The Wolverines chance at the CFP comes next week as they host Ohio State. If they can finally beat the Buckeyes they’ll obviously be in the top-four entering conference championship week.

4. Cincinnati (11-0)

USA TODAY Network

4. Cincinnati (11-0)

Cincinnati rolled SMU in a game some thought would be a challenge for the Bearcats. This ranking doesn’t mean Cincinnati will stay here simply by winning out, but they did nothing to deserve to be passed by Michigan or anyone else this week.

3. Alabama

Credit: Butch Dill-USA TODAY Sports

3. Alabama (10-1)

Alabama falls in the ratings this week not because they were by any means bad but because what the team that passes them did is too impressive not to reward.

2. Ohio State

USA TODAY Network

2. Ohio State (10-1)

Ohio State played perhaps as perfect of game as one could against Michigan State in routing the Spartans 56-7. I’ve thought for weeks that Georgia appeared unbeatable but the more I see of Ohio State the more excited I get about that possible matchup.

1. Georgia

Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports

Georgia (11-0)

The Dawgs stay in the top-spot and have just 3-8 Georgia Tech between them and a perfect regular season.

Source