The bad news: We are halfway into the college football season. The good news: We have some stellar matchups in Week 7. Here are three underdogs that can win outright.
Penn State +7 at Michigan
Wolverines RB Blake Corum could indeed be a Heisman contender, but he accounts for a bulk of this Michigan offense. Eliminate the star player, and you have a chance at an upset. The underdog monelyine price is +230. Here’s my full reasoning for backing the Nittany Lions:
LSU +2.5 at Florida
The Gators are a one-dimensional rushing offense. The strength of LSU lies in its defense, especially against the run. The Tigers held Florida State and Auburn to under 3.5 yards per carry before giving up 263 rushing yards to Tennessee. What’s particularly great about LSU’s defense is second-half scoring allowed. LSU is top 15 in opponent second-half scoring allowed, giving up an average of just seven points after the half. The Tigers’ defense held Mississippi State to just a field goal, shut out Auburn and even held Tennessee to a lone field goal in the fourth quarter. LSU has the better defense both against the pass and the run, is top 25 job at limiting red-zone trips and excels even more in limiting touchdowns. Back the better defense in LSU. The underdog moneyline price is +115.
Oklahoma State +3.5 at TCU and over 68.5
This is the best passing offense TCU has faced. In a similar matchup, the Horned Frogs defeated SMU 42-34. However, Mustangs QB Tanner Mordecai threw two interceptions, both of which led to TCU touchdowns. Cowboys QB Spencer Sanders does a great job of protecting the ball with only two picks all season. Plus, Sanders is a mobile quarterback. He has 58 rushing attempts and four games in which he’s rushed for at least 50 yards. Having a mobile quarterback who can also sling it (8.2 yards per pass attempt) is an added element of chaos to defend. TCU’s defense will have its hands full. The underdog moneyline price is +160.
I also like the over on 68.5. Oklahoma State’s defense is atrocious, giving up 44 points and 546 total yards to Central Michigan, and 31 points and another 527 yards to Texas Tech. In last week’s 38-31 win over Kansas, TCU QB Max Duggan showed that he too can sling it, throwing for over 300 yards and three touchdowns. Sanders will score, and Duggan will have to keep up.