Forsberg: C’s should ditch double-big lineup and other thoughts from latest loss originally appeared on NBC Sports Boston
The Boston Celtics let another fourth quarter lead slip away Friday night in a 109-105 loss to the Portland Trail Blazers at TD Garden.
Our Celtics insider Chris Forsberg outlines a handful of his thoughts from the latest frustrating defeat for Boston.
Time to ditch the double-big lineup?
Boston’s double-big lineup featuring Robert Williams and Al Horford is down to a minus-1.9 net rating in 378 minutes together this season. Most concerning, those lineups have an offensive rating of 101.8 with a 52.6 true shooting percentage.
It’s almost certainly time for coach Ime Udoka to swallow hard, ignore the glitzy numbers when Boston has its preferred starting 5 healthy, and split the big minutes between those two players.
Rob Williams/Al Horford tandem not working
Net rating
minus-1.9
Minutes played
378
Variation
Double
On Friday night, the Williams/Horford tandem had a minus-31 net rating over 15 minutes. The Celtics missed seven of their nine 3-point attempts while that pair shared the floor and Boston was outscored by nine in that span.
With a lack of reliable center depth, the Celtics have had to find spots for Enes Freedom, who was a minus-9 in a mere 2:36 on Friday. Over the last five games the Celtics are getting outscored by 13 points per 100 possessions during Freedom’s 66 minutes on the floor.
Forsberg: What’s wrong with Tatum‘s shot, and can fixing it save the C’s?
With Williams out earlier this week, Udoka trotted out a Freedom/Horford double-big lineup to open the second half against undersized Charlotte, then pulled the plug four minutes later with Boston down 10.
With Grant Williams playing some of his best basketball and shooting 42.4 percent on 3-pointers this season, it’s overdue for Udoka to shuffle him up to the starting lineup and bring Horford off the bench. Heck, if the Celtics are adamant about staying with the preferred starting 5, they could try an early sub and split time from there. Horford has been solid in most areas beyond shooting but his 3-point woes have complicated matters when paired with rim-running Rob Williams. It has put increased strain on Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown to make perimeter shots despite the attention they’re drawing.
It’s simply a necessity to add shooting to the floor and allow Boston to better split big-man minutes between Horford and Rob Williams throughout the game.
To be fair, the Double Williams lineup has a minus-3.4 net rating this season. But over the last 15 games that spikes to plus-2.2 in 109 minutes. Boston’s true shooting percentage spikes to a team-best 57 percent with Grant Williams on the floor this season.
The kids are stating their case
Before the wheels came off over the final 7 minutes against Portland, the Celtics got a boost from Romeo Langford and Payton Pritchard, who got time over Dennis Schroder and Josh Richardson. We can fret that neither Langford nor Grant Williams was able to grab a key rebound before Jusuf Nurkic’s game-winning putback but it was still an encouraging night for the 2019 draftees, who showed again how impactful they can be with extended time.
With Udoka already acknowledging that Aaron Nesmith has positioned himself for more time — at least before his ankle injury — it’s time for the Celtics to lean further into the youth, especially given the roller coaster nature of season. That might require Brad Stevens to move out veteran pieces before the deadline to make it easier for Udoka to embrace the young players.
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Clutch woes
The Celtics have now played 26 clutch games (score within 5 points, last 5 minutes), the second most in the NBA behind only Milwaukee (27). Boston is 9-17 in those games and their .346 winning percentage ranks 27th overall.
That means 70.8 percent of Boston’s losses this season triggered clutch-time status. Most notable: Boston’s offensive rating is a meager 101.1 in 123 clutch-time minutes and the team’s defense slips as well, leaving Boston at a minus-8.4 net rating overall in clutch situations.
Most maddening about Boston’s late-game meltdowns, beyond the fact that they appeared to be turning a bit of a corner lately, are the small miscues that have repeatedly burnt them.
Brown inexplicably wandered away from Robert Covington leading to a huge late-game 3 against the Blazers. Tatum probably could have attacked the basket instead of pulling up for 3 on Boston’s final field goal attempt. Boston’s decision-making in key spots hasn’t been good enough.
Tatum’s 3 remains the key
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It’s crazy to think how different this season might be if Tatum wasn’t in one of the most baffling shooting slumps of his career. Tatum has now missed 20 straight 3-pointers and is shooting 31.1 percent beyond the arc overall. That’s down 8.5 percent over his career mark.
Yes, 3-point shooting is down across the league but — as we wrote the other day — it’s wild that Tatum is getting better looks this season and just can’t hit open shots. His 3-point percentage with 6+ feet of space — shots deemed wide open by the NBA’s tracking system — is down nearly 23 percent this year to 30.2 percent overall.
Celtics star Jayson Tatum confident he will break out of shooting slump
The Celtics are now a full 3 games below win expectation based on their statistical output. If the Celtics were 26-21, they’d be jockeying with Philadelphia and Cleveland for spots 5-6 in the East. Instead, the Celtics are 23-24 and clinging to the last play-in spot.
The big question is, if Tatum finds his 3-point stroke and Stevens makes some small tweaks to the roster before the deadline (adding shooting, finding another serviceable big), is that enough to really change the trajectory of the season? It feels like it can nudge the Celtics a little closer to Tier 2 in the East but little about their maddening inconsistencies suggests a team capable of hanging with the Bucks or Nets over a seven-game series.
The Celtics need to use the remainder of the season to answer questions about the sustainability of this core and try to find the pieces that allow Tatum and Brown to more consistently thrive. Udoka is getting a crash-course in the rigors of head coaching but must use these infuriating losses to grow as much as his players.